Erickson’s NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Erickson |
Oct 21, 2023

Welcome to Andrew Ericksonâ€™s Week 7 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, weâ€™ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 7 betting. We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.

Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.

In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big â€“ as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do â€“ with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.

All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.

But Week 4 was rough famâ€¦Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.

4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.

But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedertâ€™s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.

Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.

Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio.

We are now up to 28-36-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green. Letâ€™s keep it rolling fam.

And note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I wonâ€™t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Ericksonâ€™s Week 7 NFL Player Prop Bets

Saquon Barkley under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetMGM)

I still lean toward the under with Saquon Barkley's rushing prop. Sits at 68.5 rushing yards on Prizepicks despite him getting that number just once this season in three games played. The Commanders have allowed just two RBs to hit 70-plus rushing yards against them this season, and it's come due to big rushes. James Cook and Khalil Herbert ripped off 34-yard gains versus Washington when they went over their projected rushing totals.

Barkley looked like his explosive self on Sunday night, with rushes of 34 yards and 19 yards. But betting on a repeat performance with another massive rush seems unlikely, especially given the state of the Giants OL.

Curtis Samuel over 3.5 receptions (+115 BetMGM)

Curtis Samuelâ€™s receptions at plus money hit last week. Let's roll it back. He's hit the over on his projected total in five of his 6 games played this season including three straight.

Cade Otton over 2.5 receptions (+112 FanDuel Sportsbook)

You want to target the middle of the Falcons defense. Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton is set up extremely nicely in this matchup. He plays all the snaps for the Buccaneers and Atlanta is a plus-matchup for tight ends. No. 2-ranked prop on the prop bet analyzer.

Atlanta is allowing the 9th-most yards and 6th-most receptions to TEs this season.

Note: This Sunday is National Tight Ends day, and DraftKings Sportsbook is giving odds boosts to TE props. Cade Otton is +1600 to score the first TE touchdown of the day.

Bijan Robinson over 3.5 receptions (+120 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet loves the Bijan Robinson over prop on his receptions and I tend to agree. No. 1-ranked prop on the prop bet analyzer.

It's listed at 3.5 catches when he is projected for 4.3 receptions. He's 5-1 toward the over on that number this season as he leads all RBs in catches while tying his team with Drake London for the most receptions on the team. Buccaneers rank 7th in targets and receptions allowed to RBs this season.

Mark Andrews over 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Itâ€™s Mark Andrews week. The Ravens tight end has gone over 65-plus yards in three straight games and is in a great spot versus a suspect Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Really like the TD odds on Andrews as well.

Josh Jacobs under 73.5 rushing yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

No better way to pair the game total under than with a play on Josh Jacob's rushing prop. The Bears weakness on defense is versus the RBs in the passing game, not the running game. They have allowed no RB to surpass more than 73 yards against them this season. They have allowed just 3.5 yards per carry - equivalent to the Cleveland Browns. Simply put, this number for Jacobs is way too high. He's surpassed 70 yards rushing one time all year. He is averaging 2.9 yards per carry this season.

Puka Nacua over 4.5 receptions (-150 BetMGM) / Puka Nacua over 60.5 receiving yards

The Puka Nacua receiving prop sticks out like a sore thumb. The line is set at 4.5 receptions/60.5 receiving yards and it's just too low based on the matchup. Again, Pittsburgh has allowed over 200 receiving yards per game to the WR position. At least one opposing WR has gone for 70-plus yards against them every game this year. 3rd in yards per completion

Buy the dip on Nacua after a down game. He still had four catches for 26 yards and was highly involved with 7 targets (33% target share). The Rams ran the ball in the entire second half so they didn't have to throw. I'd anticipate they throw plenty in this plus-matchup considering the Rams are down their two top RBs.

The BettingPros Draft Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees with me, projecting Nacua for 65.2 receiving yards and 5.8 receptions. I also like the 1st TD prop on Nacua. He should have hit on this prop last week but he dropped the ball. +950 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook) are just too long for a guy who is this heavily involved in an offense that will probably score first. Pittsburgh has allowed the 1st TD score to a WR in three of their five games played this season.

Keontay Ingram under 38.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

My favorite prop is the under on Keontay Ingram. Seattle's rush defense is stout - 3.2 yards per carry allowed, 6th fewest rushing yards allowed per game - allowing just 2.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs. An average of 21 carries faced for just 56 yards. Ingram got to 40 yards last week on 10 carries but he had just one carry in the entire second half.

If Arizona falls behind, Ingram won't even be on the field. Hence he only played 37% of the snaps last week. The RB snap counts suggest Emeri Demercado should have been involved more, and he probably should have been. He dominated the snaps with the Cardinals down big, but he was just not targeted. His role just didn't change without James Conner as the receiving third-down back.

For that reason, I also really like the under on Keontay Ingramâ€™s receiving yards prop set at 10.5 receiving yards. He ran a route on less than 22% of the dropbacks last week. If Arizona falls behind â€“ most likely â€“ Ingram wonâ€™t be on the field to accumulate any receiving yardage.

Skyy Moore under 27.5 receiving yards (-125 BetMGM)

We have to back unders on these WRs even in a plus-matchup. The addition of Mecole Hardman makes it less likely that either Skyy Moore or Kadarius Toney get decent usage. Both WRs have already been finishing consistently under the projected receiving totals on a weekly basis.

Toney at least gets targeted when he's on the field, but that's not the case with Moore and his 14% target rate per route run. He's gone under for three straight games, and I think that continues in Week 7. Moore went over 30 receiving yards twice in 10 games played with Hardman in 2022.

Christian Watson over 49.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

For props, take the layup with Christian Watson at 49.5 receiving yards. Watson's aDOT in Week 5 before the bye week was an absurd 26.7 yards downfield. Watson and Luke Musgrave tied for the team lead with 7 targets a piece (24% Target share). Musgrave caught 6 for 34 yards, while Watson flashed his big-play upside with a 77-yard grab on one of his 3 catches with an absurd 177 air yards, 73% air-yard share).

Love ranks 4th in deep-ball pass rate this season but has completed just 25% of those throws (4th-lowest). I'd bet this team cashes in on regression in the form of big downfield plays against a beatable defense.

Keenan Allen over 6.5 receptions (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Go right back to Keenan Allen. He gets out of bed averaging 6-plus receptions per game, hitting that mark in 3 of 5 games this season. The one poor game was against the Raiders starting a rookie QB when Justin Herbert broke a finger on his non-throwing hand. Back the volume monster in Allen in a projected high-scoring affair. KC ranks 7th in total targets faced by WRs this season.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 10.5 rushing attempts (-130 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Billsâ€™ biggest weakness on defense is versus the run. Therefore I am backing Rhamondre Stevenson to see a heavy workload. 12-plus carries in the first four games of the year, but just 8 and 10 over the last two weeks. He would have easily gotten over this number last week had it not been banged up toward the end of the game. Fully removed from the injury report, I think Stevenson flies over 10.5 carries. His projection is 13.3 carries for Week 7.

Nelson Agholor over 22.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Nelson Agholor has been operating as the No.2 WR in the Ravens offense. But the sportsbooks donâ€™t know this based on his line compared to other Ravens WRs. He has been the primary slot receiver for the Ravens and that is where the Lionsâ€™ defense can be exploited. Detroit ranks 4th in targets to WRs overall and 5th in fantasy points allowed to slot WRs. Nelson Agholor has gone over 40 receiving yards in four of five games since earning the starting role in Week 2.

For longer shot odds and a big payout, sprinkle in some anytime TD action for Agholor at +500. Heâ€™s come extremely close the last few weeks to finding paydirt. The only reason I am not has confident backing any Ravens player for the first TD is I am not as confident Baltimore scores first, with Detroit also very strong at scoring first.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 3.5 receptions (+110 BetMGM)

Rookie breakout alert. Three words. Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Itâ€™s happening. The rookie WR saw 5 targets (2 red-zone targets) while seeing a usage bump in Week 6. Tied Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf for the team lead in routes run (81%). Played a season-high snap share (72%). Posted a season-high in receiving yards (48). This could be the week he finally breaks out versus the Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 3rd in most fantasy points allowed to slot WRs this season. Pete Carroll said himselfâ€¦ â€œThe best is yet to come.â€

Bet the over on his reception prop at plus-money. The Cardinals rank sixth in catches allowed per game to WRs. JSN has also gone over his receptions prop in four of the five games played this season.

Michael Mayer over 20.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

Michael Mayer was a significant target in the passing game during Week 6, making 5 receptions for 75 yards. 6 targets (19% Target share, 2 red-zone targets) and it was the second week in a row the offense was looking to get him involved from the get-go. Season-high in snap share (81%). Ran a route on 66% of the dropbacks

The Bears defense is horrible versus tight ends. Most receptions allowed per game (6.7) and 4^th-most targets allowed to tight ends.

Davante Adams over 68.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM)

Back down the narrative street. Davante Adams is not just a squeaky wheel looking for targets. He is a SCREAMING TIRE looking to get PUMPED with volume. Donâ€™t overthink it. Aidan Oâ€™Connell might be forced into targeting Adams 20-plus times in this contest versus the Bears defense.

Hard to not lock in the +550 bet for Davante Adams to score the first TD considering he LEADS the entire NFL in red-zone targets. LV has scored first in 5 of their six games played and they have all been passing TDs to WRs. Last week it was Meyers. This week it will most likely be Adams. Especially considering the Bears have allowed 4 first TDs as passing scores.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 7.

Chris Godwin (+240/+1000 FanDuel) - TD regression calling his name. One of two receivers this year with 7-plus red-zone targets and zero TDs (Michael Pittman Jr.). Godwin also has the second-most receiving yards without a TD score this season. Mike Evans is expected to draw tight coverage from the Falconsâ€™ strong perimeter CBs. Atlanta ranks 2nd in fewest points per game to boundary WRs. Their biggest weakness is their slot CB, Dee Alford, which could lead to a highly involved day for Godwin. Alford ranks second in targets and catches allowed from the slot this season. Godwin has 6-plus receptions in back-to-back games with at least 5 catches in all but one game this season. The Falcons also have one of the worst first-half offenses (especially on the road) allowing other teams to strike first. Atlanta has allowed the 1st TD through the air in half their games, including both ones played on the road.
Cade Otton (+470/+1900 FanDuel) - Same matchup. Itâ€™s favorable as I alluded to earlier in reference to Ottonâ€™s receptions prop. Atlanta has allowed a receiving TD to an opposing tight end in every other game they have played this season. Otton plays almost every snap for Tampa Bay and he leads all WR/TEs on the Buccaneers in snaps from inside the 20-yard line.
Latavius Murray (+265/+1200 DraftKings) â€“ The Patriots have allowed the other team to score the 1st TD first in five of six games. BUF has scored 1st TD in four of six games. All passing TDs to WRs. However, I think this is a spot where we see some regression from a passing TD perspective. The Patriots are allowing the second-lowest pass TD %. Think this is a spot where a Bills RB could punch it in for a score. Murray operates as the primary goal-line back. Damien Harris is not expected to play and Josh Allen likely wonâ€™t run with his shoulder injury. Sets up nicely for Murray to punch in the 1st (of many) TDs for the Bills in Week 7.
Dawson Knox (+360/+1500 FanDuel) - Dawson Knox is a red-zone favorite of Josh Allen and will remain on the list with his current odds. Donâ€™t love it as much as Murray, but the peripherals are still solid in his favor.
Ken Walker (-190/+360) - We know heâ€™s going to score and heâ€™s been the 1st TD score twice for Seattle already this season. Sunday will mark his third time in a row.
Mecole Hardman Jr. (+400/+2500) - Heâ€™s back on the roster, and I donâ€™t expect him to be eased back into action. He already knows the Chiefs offense and I expect him to be used around the red zone. He scored four red-zone TDs in 8 games last season. KC has scored first in five games this year. 3 have been different WRs. Sunday will mark the 4th different WR to score the 1st TD for KC.
Romeo Doubs (+240/+1400) â€“ While Christian Watson remains the big-play threat, Doubs is the guy that Jordan Love leans on in the red zone. Doubs should have scored back in Week 5. He has 8 red-zone targets on the year. Denver has also allowed a 1st passing TD in half of their games this season, all of which have gone to WRs.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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