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Erickson’s NFL Week 8 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 8 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 8 betting.

We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.

Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.

In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.

All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.

But Week 4 was rough fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.

4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.

But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.

Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.

Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.

However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We are already HEATING UP for Week 8.

We are now up to 36-44-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green. Let’s keep it rolling fam.

And note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.

8 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Erickson’s Week 8 NFL Player Prop Bets

Darrell Henderson Jr. under 43.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Darrell Henderson Jr. started in Week 7 and ran the ball 18 times for 61 yards, averaging 3.4 yards per carry, and scored 1 touchdown in the red zone (2 targets). Logged 3 total red-zone opportunities and 57% of the snaps. Royce Freeman carried the ball 12 times for 66 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and did not score a touchdown. He played a 43% snap share. Those two RBs switched off the drives. Henderson had 9 carries in the first half to Freeman's 7. It likely will be a split backfield till Kyren Williams returns.

However, as I have preached with all Rams RBs this season...none of these guys are made for the long haul. Sean McVay churns through RBs like fantasy managers on the waiver wire. So, what's the move? Smash the under.

Remember, the Steelers were a favorable matchup for RBs. Dallas will present a MUCH tougher challenge in Week 8.

5 of the last 6 RBs they have faced have gone under their projected rushing yards totals. Just 3 guys have gone over 50 yards. Considering how fragile Henderson’s role in the offense might be, this is an easy under to HAMMER.

Also, need to consider that Myles Gaskin might be added to the mix next week after being a healthy scratch. Consider me very skeptical that an RB off the couch can be a true difference-maker on the road versus Big D. He's never been able to stay healthy and recall that the Rams outright cut him last November despite him leading the team in rushing yards. I went down the retread RB rode with Cam Akers this year and I will not be fooled again by McVay. Last season, Henderson was under this number in 70% of his games. He never rushed for more than 60 yards in any contest…

Matthew Stafford under 23.5 pass completions (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Pair the DAL-Rams game total under with Matthew Stafford’s under 23.5 pass completions. Been under this number in 4 of 7 games, including three straight with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. Every QB Dallas has faced this season has gone UNDER their completions prop.

Dameon Pierce over 53.5 rushing yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

If the Texans aren't doing damage through the air, be confident they can get it done on the ground. Carolina ranks 2nd in missed tackles on defense. That's Dameon Pierce's calling card as it is for YAC WR god Nico Collins. Expect Houston's operation ground and pound to be extremely productive between both Pierce and Devin Singletary. Carolina is also the only defense to allow three 1st TDs to opposing RBs this season.

Dabble in some Pierce (+115/+700) anytime TD/ 1st TD props this week.

The Panthers have also allowed an average of 134 rushing yards per game to opposing backs – 3rd-most in the NFL.

Zach Wilson under 195.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)

On props, take the under on Zach Wilson’s passing yards. Only one time this year he has hit 200 passing yards (83.3%). And the Giants defense is surging right now. Especially with their blitz-heavy scheme. Against the blitz this season, Wilson is PFF's 29th-graded QB among 34 qualifiers.

Jaylen Waddle over 58.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Demario Douglas over 26.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Patriots will do everything in their power to shut down opposing No. 1 WRs. No. 1 in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs this season.

They did so versus Tyreek Hill in Week 2, and I think they will do the same in Week 8 as Hill battles through a hip injury. As scary as it is to bet an under on Hill, I think that's the move to make. Conversely, bet the over on Jaylen Waddle's receiving yards prop. Two of Waddle's highest receiving yardage games (86, 63) have come when Hill has been held under 100 receiving yards.

I know I have personally put together a three-leg same-game parlay with Waddle, Hill and Patriots rookie WR Demario Douglas for a hefty payout of +787. Douglas’ receiving yards prop sets at 26.5 yards. In games where Douglas has played more than 40% of the snaps, he has totaled at least 4 receptions and 40-plus receiving yards on 6.5 targets.

Jonnu Smith over 30.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

Take the over on Jonnu Smith’s receiving yards prop. The Buccaneers are tough on tight ends, hence the under on Smith last week. He saw three targets on the opening drive and was then never heard of again. That’s despite him hitting the over in every game he has played as a starter this season. Look for the Falcons to expose the Titans secondary that will be without safety Kevin Byard after he was traded to the Eagles. Smith is averaging 44.1 yards per game this season in 7 games played. Also REVENGE GAME.

Brian Robinson Jr. under 10.5 carries (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Brian Robinson UNDER 10.5 carries. He’s been under this number in four of his last five games. The Eagles are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to RBs while facing the league’s lowest rush play rate. Washington ranks third in pass rate over expectation.

The Commander’s backfield is also starting to morph into a three-headed monster between B-Rob, Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez. BRob has totaled 24 carries for 64 yards in the last 3 games as a result. Rodriguez led the team in rushing last week.

Michael Pittman Jr. under 58.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

Michael Pittman had 5 targets and caught 2 passes for 83 yards in Week 7. Caught a 75-yarder late in the game. The Saints are allowing the 5th-fewest fantasy points to perimeter WRs this season. It’s a better matchup for Josh Downs in the slot. Pittman has also not posted overly encouraging numbers against man coverage this season. Made the big play last week, but I wouldn't bet on that two weeks in a row. Take the under.

Alvin Kamara over 4.5 receptions (-115 BetMGM)

But take the over on Alvin Kamara’s reception prop at 4.5. 19 catches in his last two games. Derek Carr is a check-down KING.

Jaylen Warren over 3.5 receptions (+145 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I like the over on Jaylen Warren’s receptions prop at plus-money. He was unusually not involved as a receiver last week, but I’d expect him to bounce back. His sample size as a receiver is too large. 3 catches in all games outside last week. And the Jaguars have been an RB-receiving frenzy. Every RB they have faced this season has hit the “over” on their respective receptions prop.

Javonte Williams over 10.5 rushing attempts (-125 BetMGM)

Pair the over in KC-DEN with Javonte Williams OVER 10.5 carries. He has hit this mark in all his games that he has been 100% healthy for. Williams reclaimed RB1 duties last week carrying the ball 15 times for 82 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 21 yards (53% snap share, season-high).

Zay Flowers over 55.5 receiving yards (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Back to Zay Flowers overs. Arizona is allowing the 3rd-most receiving yards per game to WRs. The rookie WR has hit the over in 5/7 games this season. If it ain’t broke…don’t fix it. Flowers has been the model of consistency throughout his entire rookie campaign. Ranks 14th in target share (28%).

Trey McBride under 31.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Fade Trey McBride. He is going to start with Zach Ertz on IR. Do not care. The Ravens are a no-fly zone for tight ends. Baltimore gives up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the TE position. 29 receiving yards per game. Welcome to undersville Mr. McBride.

Tee Higgins over 45.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)

Parlay the game total over with an over on Tee Higgins. The 49ers rank 10th in fantasy points allowed per game to WRs and 6th to boundary WRs. Finally healthy, Higgins should get more involved in the Bengals’ offense. Higgins has a 62 receiving yards per game career average. Last year he averaged 64 receiving yards per game and went over 45.5 yards in 11 of 17 games played, including 9 in a row.

D’Onta Foreman under 46.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Another running back under with D’Onta Foreman. Roshon Johnson is expected to return for Chicago and potentially create a three-headed backfield as Foreman was already splitting work with Darrynton Evans. The Bears are also massive road dogs and the Chargers have allowed fewer than 35 yards to both Isiah Pacheco and Tony Pollard in back-to-back weeks.

Tyler Scott over 16.5 receiving yards (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Rookie Tyler Scott has a connection with Tyson Bagent. Scott saw 29 air yards (52%) as the Bears operated very close to the LOS to protect their inexperienced QB in Week 7. What a novel idea. Scott had 2 carries and three targets (2 for 19). But back-to-back weeks where Bagent has looked for his fellow rookie. That chemistry should be enough to vault him over the 16.5 receiving yards mark in a plus-matchup. The Chargers are allowing the most receiving yards per game to WRs this season.

Austin Ekeler under 49.5 rushing yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Joshua Kelley under 26.5 rushing yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bet the under on Austin Ekeler’s rushing yardage prop. 49.5 he has been under in 80% of his last 5 games played.  The Bears’ run defense is ELITE. 5th in fewest yards per carry allowed at 3.5

The same sentiment can be made with Joshua Kelley. Got there last week with a massive run. That won’t happen two weeks in a row.

Anytime TD/1st TD Bets

Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 8. 

  • Mecole Hardman Jr. (+700/+3200) - He’s back on the roster and didn’t play much in Week 7. But he was used around the red zone with 2 red-zone targets. Expect his role to grow...He scored four red-zone TDs in 8 games last season. KC has scored first in six games this year. 3 have been different WRs. Sunday will mark the 4th different WR to score the 1st TD for KC. The Broncos have allowed a 1st TD to a WR thrice this season. They also rank 5th in red zone targets allowed to WRs.
  • Tony Pollard (-160/+400) – The Rams are allowing the league's lowest passing TD percentage but below a below-average red zone defense (19th) and the league's highest rushing TD percentage at a whopping 69%. Last week the Steelers' offense went a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone against the Rams. It was the Steelers' best offensive output of the season, and they also happened to be coming off a bye week like Dallas is this week. Pittsburgh ranked dead last in red zone conversion rate entering Week 7...Ergo, this is the perfect spot for Dallas' offense to get things correct in the red zone, particularly with Tony Pollard. The Cowboys RB1 ranks 1st in the NFL in red zone touches per game. He only has 2 TDs where his expected TD output is closer to seven touchdowns. This is the perfect regression spot for Pollard to blow up and get Dallas' offense cooking. Pollard has the second-shortest 1st TD prop odds in Week 8 with 21% implied probability. 2 of LA's 3 1st TDs allowed this season have been RB rushing scores. If it’s not Pollard, bet on Jake Ferguson (+250/+1300). The Rams have been horrible versus tight ends – 30th in DVOA – and Ferguson leads all tight ends in red-zone targets. He has not scored since Week 2.
  • Dameon Pierce (+115/+700) – See analysis above on his rushing yards prop.
  • Daniel Bellinger (+1100/+4200) – This is the degenerate play of the week. Daniel Bellinger is the No. 2 tight end for the Giants but is heavily deployed in red-zone packages. The Jets defense is just one of two defenses to allow a 1st-team TD to opposing tight ends. And on the season, they have allowed the MOST receiving TDs to tight ends. Sure, this might be the case to back Darren Waller, but I am going deeper. Because when you look at the tight ends they have allowed scores on – Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker, Pharaoh Brown, Noah Gray, Adam Trautman – it’s hardly household names. Bellinger is those GUYs in Week 8. And if he strikes first (both Jets/Giants have allowed 1st TD in a league-high six games this season, although the Jets have played one less game) you are in for a major payout.
  • Drake London (+240/+675) – Came very close to scoring multiple times last week. Great matchup this week versus a horrible Titans secondary. They have allowed 5 1st TD scores – four of which have been WRs. London also ranks second among all WRs in red-zone targets (11).

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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