Erickson’s NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)
Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 9 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 9 betting.
We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big – as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do – with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
But Week 4 was rough fam…Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
4 weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
But in Week 5 we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert’s 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8) but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8.
However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8 and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
We are now up to 46-52-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green. Along with back-to-back anytime TD hits on Thursday night football. Diontae Johnson, we ARE BACK. Week 9 insert the flame emoji.
Let’s keep it rolling fam.
And note my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won’t make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.
8 Weeks into NFL action and I can say am I fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let’s turn the obsession into a profit.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Erickson’s Week 9 NFL Player Prop Bets
Jonathan Taylor over 13.5 carries (-122 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jonathan Taylor over 65.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Because the Panthers have faced the league’s highest run rate, I want to back the overs on Jonathan Taylor’s rushing/carries props.
He had 11 carries in the first half last week for 94 yards – 7 for 82 in the first quarter – before the team just randomly decided to stop feeding him the ball.
One carry in the second half. In yet, still played a season-high snap share at 61%.
Shane Steichen said post-game it was due to the team being down so much in the second half. Even though I like the Panthers to win this game outright, it’s probably safe to say this game will be more back-and-forth. That will keep JT in the game, and the yards/carries will continue to pile up. Ladder bet alert? You. Bet.
Taylor's career rushing average is 86.1 yards. Last year in a "down year" he averaged 78 rushing yards per game. This number is just too low versus a defense that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA.
Dak Prescott over 22.5 pass completions (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I think we can take advantage of a potentially pass-heavy game script for Dallas. No team faces a higher pass-play rate than the Eagles this season (72%). And Dallas dialed up a pass-heavy approach last week coming out of their bye week. In the first half alone, Prescott attempted 21 passes, completing 17 for 225 yards. Philly is also allowing the league’s most completions per game at 26.5. Think this is a spot for some same-game parlay action with Prescott stacked with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson.
Alvin Kamara over 4.5 receptions (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
If I am to bet ANYTHING from Saints-Bears, it’s 100% Alvin Kamara over his receptions prop. 4.5? Child, please. I know he came up just short of this number last week, but it’s just too low for a guy that is so heavily involved as a receiver. 23 catches in his last three games. Derek Carr is a check-down KING. And the Bears cannot stop RBs in the passing game. They rank 3rd in receptions, third in targets and 1st in receiving yards allowed to RBs this season.
D’Onta Foreman under 10.5 rushing attempts (-140 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I also tend to lean toward the under on D’Onta Foreman’s 10.5 carries prop. The Bears are massive road underdogs for a second straight week, and this Bears offense is running a three-headed committee. The rushing attempts under HIT for the last 7 of 8 RBs New Orleans’s fierce run defense has faced this season. Last week, the first-half carries were 5 to 4 to 1, between Foreman/Roschon Johnson/Darrynton Evans. Could easily see RJ usurping Foreman entirely as the team’s RB1 further backing the case for the under here. Pair the Foreman under attempts with an over on Tyson Bagent’s over 29.5 passing attempts (-105 BetMGM) prop.
Demario Douglas over 41.5 receiving yards (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Before last week, in games where Demario Douglas has played more than 40% of the snaps, he totaled at least 4 receptions and 40-plus receiving yards on 6.5 targets. He came up just short of his receiving yards prop last week catching 5 balls for 25 yards. But don’t be fooled as Douglas was the clear target leader with 7 opportunities. 77% snap share led all WRs as did his two red zone targets and 84% route participation. It’s a great matchup for him to hit the over at 41.5 receiving yards versus the Commanders, who rank 2nd in most fantasy points and 1st in receiving yards allowed to WRs this season.
Brian Robinson Jr. under 12.5 carries (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I sound like a broken record, but the Brian Robinson props are too good to pass up on. We took the under last week. It hit. Brian Robinson has been under 12.5 carries for four straight games. It’s back at 12.5 and that means it’s another solid spot to back the under. The Commanders are a pass-first offense and I don’t think that will change against the Patriots. New England boasts the No. 1 run defense in expected points added. Their pass defense ranks 27th. Think it’s safe to say what we can expect the Commanders offense to do on Sunday. Throw the damn ball.
Alec Pierce under 2.5 receptions (-132 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I am trusting the projections with this one. Under on Alec Pierce’s 2.5 receptions yardage prop. He has an abysmal 11% target share over the last month. And considering he is one a three-game heater of three straight overs (with 3 receptions in all the games), I think he’s due for an under. The Panthers are a defense that has faced the league’s heaviest run rate, which could limit the total pass attempts for Indy. Carolina also doesn’t give up a ton of huge passing plays or face a high average depth of target. Considering Pierce is used mostly downfield – leads all Colts WRs in aDOT – he’s facing an uphill battle to haul in 3-plus balls on tougher to convert downfield pass attempts from Gardner Minshew. Note that Josh Downs is questionable with a knee injury, so wait until we get final news about his availability. Still would likely be on the under – Pierce’s role won’t change – but he could see more targets. Would just prefer to bet the under at a inflated number if it gets bet up based on the Down’s injury news.
Davante Adams over 6.5 receptions (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bet the OVER props on Davante Adams. Because good lord this man is going to get drowned in targets. The last time we saw Aidan O’Connell start a game, Adams was O'Connell's top target, securing 8 receptions for 75 yards on 13 targets despite getting treated for a shoulder injury early on in the contest. Adams owned a 50% first-read target share. He’s going to catch at least 7 balls. And I love his odds of scoring the 1st TD in this spot. The Giants have allowed the 1st TD score in 7 of their 8 games played this season. Meanwhile, the Raiders – despite how dysfunctional they have been on offense – have scored the 1st TD in 6 of their 8 games played. I’m growing more and more toward backing LV and I think they strike first at home. I’d bet – and will bet – money that it’s Adams with the 1st score. Leads the NFL in red-zone targets but has not scored since Week 3. +160 Anytime TD, +750 1st TD scorer.
Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (-166 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dalton Kincaid caught 5 passes out of 7 targets for 65 yards in Week 8. He scored 1 touchdown (18% Target share). The week before, Kincaid ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks while playing 61% of the snaps. In Week 8, he ran a route on 85% of the dropbacks while playing 84% of the snaps.
Wheels ARE up for the rookie tight end versus a defense that ranks 1st in most fantasy points allowed to TEs this season. 5th-most receptions per game and 3rd in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs.
Raheem Mostert over 11.5 carries (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
KC will present issues for Miami's high-flying offense with their top-tier defense, ranking 5th overall in DVOA and 4th in pass defense DVOA. 23rd in rush defense DVOA. I think we will see a heavy run game plan by the Dolphins to expose the Chiefs' weaker run defense. Miami is dealing with a lot of OL injuries, so pass protection could be a potential issue. Therefore I like the over on Raheem Mostert’s 11.5 carries prop. Even with Jeff Wilson Jr. back in action last week, Mostert carried the ball 13 times. The over HIT last week on Javonte Williams’ carry total versus the Chiefs, so we will roll that over into Week 9.
T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 receptions (-145 BetMGM)
I am going to buy the discount on T.J. Hockenson. His receptions prop is at 4.5 receptions with the downgrade at QB. However, this number Hockenson goes over in his SLEEP. Over in 7/8 games this season. Only went under this number twice last year as a member of the Vikings.
Considering how bad the Falcons have been versus tight ends – 5th-most catches allowed per game – and Hockenson’s elite target share without Justin Jefferson the last four weeks (23% target share), I think he can still get over this number with short targets from Hall. On 4 pass attempts last week, Hall targeted Hockenson twice (two also went to K.J. Osborn).
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 9.
- Odell Beckham Jr. (+420/+2000) – 5 red-zone targets and zero TDs thus far this season. He ghosted overall on four targets last week and was visibly upset after being interfered with in the end zone. Could get a sneaky wheel coming, especially with targets in the end zone. He has 14 catches for 162 yards near the midpoint of the season and is still looking for his first touchdown. Lamar Jackson told reporters this about Beckham via the team’s official website. “He’s going to catch the ball, so they have to do their best to keep him away from the ball,†Jackson said Wednesday. “They’re doing a good job of it right now, but he’s going to get on the scoreboard. I believe it’s happening fast. It’s going to come. It’s going to happen.†The Ravens have scored 1st in 7 of 8 games played this season. This prop is also the 5th-best value on the BettingPros NFL Anytime TD Scorer report.
- Mecole Hardman Jr. (+650/+3700) - He’s back on the roster and didn’t play much in Week 7. But he was used around the red zone with 2 red-zone targets. His role grew in Week 8 to a 36% snap share while Kadarius Toney barely played. Considering his muffed punt-sealed victory for Denver, I’d imagine the team wants to do right by him near the red zone. He scored four red-zone TDs in 8 games last season. KC has scored first in six games of 8 games this year. The Dolphins have allowed 5 1st TD scores, 3 via the pass. The Patriots have 3 1st TD scores, 2 by passing TDs.
- Demario Douglas (+220/+1100) -All. In. Saw 2 red-zone targets last week. The Commanders have allowed 5 first TDs this season, four via the air. They also boast the 5th-highest passing TD rate on defense, allowing the most receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs. Mac Jones has the league’s highest passer rating in the red zone this season. 7 TDs and zero interceptions.
- MyCole Pruitt (+1600/+5000) – No TDs on the year, but 3 red-zone targets including a designed pass from Jonnu Smith last week. No Drake London (the resident Falcons’ No. 1 red-zone target) boosts his chances of falling in the end zone in a matchup where Atlanta should score first at home against a rookie QB. Jonnu Smith is also a solid bet (+400/+1700) for similar reasons, but obviously at much shorter odds.
- Elijah Moore (+255/+1000) – No player has more targets (45) without a TD score than Elijah Moore does this season. With Deshaun Watson back, we could see more pass attempts in the red zone, giving Moore a chance to hit paydirt for the 1st time this season. Arizona has allowed 3 passing 1st TD scores to WRs this season. However, at even a more long shot odds…look at Cedric Tillman. The Browns traded away Donovan Peoples-Jones this week to the Lions. That should thrust Tillman into a near full-time role. He is a big-bodied WR that Watson might favor in the red zone. His odds are not factoring in his increased role. +800 anytime TD/+3500 1st TD scorer. The odds will never be this good. Take advantage.
- Tommy Tremble (+1000/+4100) – Last week, Tremble played AHEAD of Hayden Hurst. Hurst only played 33% of the snaps to Tremble's 54%. Hurst ran more routes, so it's likely better to just avoid and not chase the Tremble TD score. Still, the fact that Tremble is so heavily involved in the red zone has me very perplexed by his outlandish odds of a tight end leading his team in snaps. Anytime TD odds for a starting TE at 10-1 are way too long for a game that I think could be high-scoring. Especially because the Colts are overdue to regression to the TE position. 8th in yards allowed but just 1 TD to the position. Tremble has scored in 2 of his last 3 games.
- Donald Parham Jr. (+370/+1600) – The Jets defense is just one of four defenses to allow a 1st-team TD to opposing tight ends. And on the season, they have allowed the MOST receiving TDs to tight ends. And when you look at the tight ends they have allowed scores on – Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker, Pharaoh Brown, Noah Gray, Adam Trautman – it’s hardly household names. Lock in DPJ to score as the team’s No. 1 red-zone option. The Chargers have scored in 6 of 7 games this season. The Jets have allowed a 1st TD score in 6 of 7 games this season.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts