Erickson’s Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks (49ers vs. Chiefs)
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's Super Bowl LVIII player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in the final NFL Playoff game.
Note that the long recap of all the props for this 2023-2024 NFL season can be found at the bottom of the article. Here’s a quick look at last week’s Conference Championship Weekend’s Bets:
- 5-8. Not great. At least we hit on the anytime TD bets between Brandon Aiyuk and Jahymr Gibbs to salvage the overall props.
It’s SB time, so let’s get right to the picks. Note that this is coming out earlier than normal, so I will go back and update with additional player props (or other fun props) as I see fit, along with any injury-related news items. Also, you will find my long list of any time 1st TD props that I won't make official but will dabble in at the bottom of the props article. Check out this tool by Arjun Menon to build the 1st TD prop of your dreams.
Eighteen-plus weeks of thrilling NFL action, and I can say I am fully a sucker for 1st and anytime TD bets. Let's turn the obsession into a profit with a GUARANTEED 1ST TD score for the Big Game.
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Erickson's Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Bets
Brock Purdy UNDER 248.5 passing yards
I am leaning heavily toward the under on Purdy's passing yardage set at 248.5 passing yards. The Chiefs' pass defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards in two of the last 3 weeks. Only one QB their first team defense has faced in the last five weeks has gone for over 200 yards through the air. 7 of the last 10 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. Since Week 14 they have allowed two QB to go over 200 passing yards. Purdy has only tossed 250 yards thrice away from home this season.
Brock Purdy OVER 10.5 rushing yards
Purdy added a new dimension to the running game in the NFC Championship Game notching 48 yards on just five carries, highlighting his mobility and ability to escape pressure. The 49ers QB has 14 or more rushing yards in both of his postseason starts, so I lean toward the OVER on his 11.5 rushing yards prop. The projections have Purdy slated for a whopping 14.8 rushing yards for the Super Bowl in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season. They have also allowed 3 of the last 4 QB they have faced to go OVER their rushing yardage props, including 25 rushing yards at least to each opposing QB.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 25.5 rushing yards
Mahomes added mobility on the ground with six carries, contributing 15 yards to the Chiefs’ rushing total, which accumulated to 89 yards across 32 attempts versus the Baltimore Ravens. Many expect Mahomes to soar over his rushing yards total in the Super Bowl, but as pointed out last week, the 49ers don't allow a ton of rushing production to QBs.
Given that the 49ers don't blitz (third-lowest blitz rate) this is an easy under to SMASH for the Mahomes. 8 of the last 10 QBs SF has played have gone UNDER their rushing yards projection. Mahomes is under 25.5 rushing yards in his last 2 playoff games. Also gone under in 5 of his last 7 postseason games played.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 89.5 rushing yards
Christian McCaffrey led the 49ers ground game with 20 carries for 90 yards, finding the end zone twice, while showcasing his versatility and power. Also went for 4-42 through the air, on 5 targets. The over on McCaffrey's rushing yardage at 89.5 yards might be the obvious/safest wager to make with the 49ers offensive personnel. Gone over in 8 of his last 10 games played. In one game he didn't finish because of an injury.
Even though the Ravens inexplicitly didn't run on the Chiefs - come on Todd Monken - I expect run CMC to be at the forefront of the 49ers' offensive attack after they were gashed by Buffalo to the tune of 182 rushing yards a few weeks back.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 68.5 rushing yards
Isiah Pacheco, carried the ball 24 times on a 79% snap share, grinding out 68 hard-fought yards and punching in a touchdown, showcasing his resilience against a tough defensive line. I expect Pacheco to keep getting fed as a rusher, so I am looking at the over on his 68.5 rushing yards prop for SB Sunday. Pacheco has 89-plus rushing yards in three of his last four games and 60 or more in 7 of his last 9 games played.
Still, he will have to rip off some explosive runs against a defense that has been traditionally stout versus the run (just not recently). Over the last two weeks, the 49ers have allowed over 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs between Aaron Jones and David Montgomery.
Before these back-breaking run defensive performances, the 49ers had allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards to 7 of the last 8 RBs they faced. And the only "over" by James Conner, came on an explosive rush.
But given how leaky they have been - and how often the team is force feeding Pacheco - the OVER is the move on the Chiefs RBs for Super Bowl 58. Pacheco has gone over 16.5 carries in three of his last four games and half of his last 10 contests.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 16.5 receiving yards
Also love Pacheco's potential as a receiver. In the AFC Championship Game, the scrappy RB also caught all four of his targets for 14 yards. The last 6 of the last 11 RBs to face San Fran have gone over their receiving yards. Aaron Jones had 6 targets 2 weeks ago. Jahmyr Gibbs had 6 targets last week. The 49ers are also allowing the 8th-most yards (37), 3rd-most targets (7.9) and 6th-most catches (5.3) to RBs this season. Also, the last 5 RBs the 49ers have faced have posted at least 70 offensive yards from scrimmage.
Give me ALL the Pacheco OVERs on his receiving yards (16.5) and yards from scrimmage (89.5). 82-plus yards from scrimmage in four straight games. 14 receiving yards in back-to-back games. The best bet Pacheco is to take the OVER on his fantasy points projection set at 15 points on Prizepicks to capture all the upside has to offer as the focal point in this offense. Gone OVER 15 fantasy points in four straight games.
Travis Kelce OVER 71.5 receiving yards
Mahomes' connection with tight end Travis Kelce was particularly effective in the ACF Championship Game, as Kelce reeled in all 11 targets (30% target share) thrown his way, amassing 116 yards and scoring the team’s lone receiving touchdown. 10 catches in the first half alone.
Kelce is on a straight heater, with 3 straight games of 70-plus yards. Given how great and consistent he is in the postseason, hard to imagine he's not going for OVER 70 receiving yards in his fourth straight game in the Super Bowl. 12 straight playoff games he has played with at least 71 receiving yards. He has saved his best for last.
George Kittle OVER 47.5 receiving yards
The 49ers’ offense was characterized by its efficiency and ability to spread the ball around, with minimal contributions from Kyle Juszczyk (61% snap share) and George Kittle, who combined for 60 yards on four receptions versus the Chiefs. Kittle was quiet with Deebo Samuel the focus of the passing game plan, going just 2 for 27 on 3 targets. But he still played 97% of the snaps. Kittle has also gone over 60 receiving yards in seven of his last 11 games, including 7 of the 49ers' 9 home games played this season. The Chiefs rank 8th in targets to TEs this season. I'll buy the dip on the 49ers' tight end to step up in the Super Bowl.
Rashee Rice OVER 6.5 receptions
The Chiefs’ receiving corps showed depth with contributions from rookie Rashee Rice who saw 9 targets, 25% target share and 8 catches for 46 yards. We nailed the OVER on Rashee Rice's 6.5 receptions prop last week, so we are going directly back to it. Rice has 6-plus catches in 7 of his last 10 games played, including 8-plus catches in 4 of his last 5 road games played. Note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season and 7 of the last 10 WRs they have faced have gone OVER their reception total. They are a volume-passing defense, so expect Rice to get peppered with targets. Just don't forget the salt.
Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 4.5 receptions
Brandon Aiyuk made the most of his opportunities in the NFC Championship Game, turning 3 receptions into 68 yards, including a long of 51 yards for a touchdown, demonstrating his big-play capability and focus on a ball that was tipped in the air. He saw 8 targets for a 27% target share with a whopping 134 air yards.
Aiyuk is always a candidate to post huge yardage totals at any point, but he doesn't always rack up a ton of receptions. He has only caught 3 passes for three straight weeks, and the Chiefs have allowed the 6th-fewest completions to WRs this season. Hate taking UNDER's on Aiyuk, but he's more likely to beat us in yardage than total catches.
Deebo Samuel UNDER 17.5 rushing yards
The No. 1 bet in the BettingPros Prop Cheat Sheet for Super Bowl 58? Deebo Samuel to finish with UNDER 15.5 rushing yards. Just two overs Samuel has hit in his last 10 games played. Projections have him listed at 13.4 rushing yards. FanDuel has the number listed at 17.5 rushing yards.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for the NFL Playoffs.
As for the angles to approach the 1st TD scores…here’s what to know.
Both the 49ers/Chiefs score fast, but KC has been trending as faster starters the last several weeks. SF has trailed in both of their postseason contests this season. Both teams have scored the majority of their 1st TDs through the air as passing TDs between RBs and WRs. TEs on both teams have combined for 1st TD score out of 25. All of the Chiefs’ 1st TDs allowed on defense have been passing TDs. The 49ers finished with the 4th-most passes to the red zone during the regular season while ranking 32nd in rushing red-zone carries faced. If KC is going to score inside the 20-yard line, it's going to be through the air.
So the best “bet†to make is that the 1st TD in the game will probably be on a passing attempt, not a rush. So don’t chase the highest implied odds between McCaffrey and Pacheco to score first.
Richie James Jr. (+1110/+4400) - Keep in mind that the best value for a 1st TD is on the Chiefs passing game, with one of their several ancillary pieces outside of Kelce/Rice. At this time, it’s unknown who will even be active between the likes of Mecole Hardman (who I continue to chase anytime TD scores for), Kadarius Toney, Justyn Ross or Skyy Moore.
Hardman played one snap in the AFC Championship Game. Ross played 3. Moore is a candidate to return from IR and could play in the SB. Despite all his missed time, he’s 3rd on the team in red-zone targets. Keep tabs on him if he’s active. Toney apparently will be practicing leading up the game per head coach Andy Reid. Stay tuned.
But with guys that we know will play, Richie James Jr. is probably the longshot Chiefs player to chase. Had a deep target close to the end zone in the AFC Championship Game (picked up a defensive holding call) with both of his targets coming deep in the Ravens’ territory. Had he not been held, he would have been EXTREMELY close to scoring the first TD. James also returns punts and played his highest snap share (35%) since Week 1 (not counting Week 18 when backups played). Meanwhile, Justin Watson’s snaps have dipped to sub-50% in the last two games.
And you can’t overlook the fact that it is a REVENGE game for James. He was on the 49ers sideline back when these teams played in 2019.
Don’t just take my word for it. Per the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Research Tool, James is the second-highest EV Bet for a TD, assuming that Toney isn’t playing.
Patrick Mahomes (+400/+2500) - I refuse to miss on his 1st TD of the 2023 NFL season. Patrick Mahomes has STILL not scored yet this season. It's his first season that he has failed to score a TD during the regular or following postseason season. Considering the lack of a supporting cast around the Chiefs QB, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do more on his own, as he often scrambles more in the postseason (even though we like the UNDER on his rushing props). He scrambled from the 10-yard last week versus the Ravens and picked up 4 yards.
No player has more combined red-zone and attempts (14) than Mahomes does without a TD scored this season, per the FantasyPros 1st TD scorer report. He scored a rushing TD when he faced the 49ers in the Super Bowl in 2019. It was the first TD of the game…
Brock Purdy (+800/+4600) - The highest EV bet per the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Research Tool is on Brock Purdy to score at +800 to score. Makes sense, given how bad the Chiefs are at defending QBs in the running game, especially around the red zone.
Rashee Rice (+145/+1000) - Rice leads the Chiefs in red-zone targets this season, not Kelce. The 49ers have faced the 3rd-most RZ targets to WRs this season. If Mahomes doesn’t tuck and run for a score, I guarantee his No. 1 rookie WR will be his first read when they enter the red zone.
Deebo Samuel (+175/+1100) - I think these odds are short-changing Samuel’s role around the red zone. As a “moveable chess piece,†Samuel has chances to see both rushes and targets in the red zone. He had a carry from the 4-yard line in the NFC Championship game, along with a target inside the red zone.
Recap
- We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
- Week 2 was a step back, going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
- In Week 3, Donald Parham Jr. came through big - as 6-foot-8 tight ends tend to do - with the 1st TD score for the LA Chargers. YLTSI.
- All in all, we finished 6-3 on normal props; a HUGE bounce back from the week prior.
- But Week 4 was rough, fam...Bijan Robinson hit the over on his receiving yards in London, and it went south from there. 6-13. Woof.
- Four weeks in, we are in the RED at 18-24-1.
- But in Week 5, we CAME BACK STRONG. First off, Dallas Goedert's 1st TD came through with flying colors. 7-4 overall, with the two misfires coming with guys knocked out due to injuries.
- Week 6 was tough on the normal player props (3-8), but we doubled down on 1st TD props with two hitting of the five listed. Zay Flowers and Jakobi Meyers. YLTSI.
Moving forward, 1st TD props will always be a staple of the prop portfolio. Alas, the hot streak ended with TD props with zero hitting last week. A breakeven week at 8-8. - However, if you read my Thursday Night Betting Primer, you likely would have been on the Chris Godwin TD train, which he hit versus Buffalo on Thursday night. In Godwin we trust. We HEATED Up for Week 8, and it continued as we went 10-8 on official props last week.
- Week 9 brought another positive outing. 7-5 overall, with the anytime TD hitting for Odell Beckham Jr. Happy Birthday, OBJ!
- Week 10 brought MORE GREEN. 12-6 on official plays. Jayden Reed hit with the anytime TD. YLTSI.
- In Week 11, we officially ended at STRONG at 12-7, including a number of anytime TD hits between Davante Adams, Tony Pollard, Tommy Tremble, and DK Metcalf. We are now up to 77-70-1 on official props, but the 5 first-time touchdown props at long-shot odds have us firmly in the green.
Thanksgiving day, we ALSO hit on several props, including the overs on Brandin Cooks receiving yardage props, and Joey P called ANOTHER Jayden Reed anytime TD. - But the highlight of Week 12 was the official player props from last week's article. Oh baby, did we hit on a HEATER of a week! 14-7. overall (67%). Had a follower tag me on Twitter/X that rolled an 8-leg parlay on props that cashed. YTLSI.
- Week 13 brought some losses based on injuries, but we still came out in the green overall at 9-8. It was looking grim after Sunday, but a big game and anytime TD score from Evan Engram got us firmly in the winning column.
- As for Week 14. It was a flat week. 9-9 straight up. But at least we hit on the Javonte Williams and Cade Otton anytime TDs.
- Week 15...more of the same. 10-9. So far, no Christmas Gifts. The Ravens' passing game underwhelming hurt us badly.
- Week 16 was generous during the holiday season. 10-5 straight up on the 15 props. YTLSI.
- Week 17 was flat at 8-7.
- But that was NOT the case in Week 18. Note to self. Don't bet on Week 18 player props in 2024. 7-6 overall on props, in a disappointing week.
- Our overall record for Weeks 1-18 is 143-121-1 on official props (54%) this season. Heating up at the right time as the postseason props arrive. New Year, New Me. Let's dominate these postseason player props.
- And that's EXACTLY what we did, in the Wild Card Round. Domination folks. 8-7 overall with my 5-leg slip on the Browns/Texans game hitting on Prizepicks.
- But better yet, we SMASHED the anytime TD market on Sunday/Monday. Chris Godwin, Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson, Puka Nacua and Dallas Goedert ALL hit paydirt.
- In the Divisional Round, the anytime TDs continued to rain profits. 11-8 overall last week with TD scores by Tucker Kraft and Mike Evans.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: