Erickson’s Top 2024 NFL Futures: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Let's dive into the 2024 NFL futures market and explore the exciting possibilities for the upcoming season. In this article, we'll cover a range of topics related to the NFL Futures in the betting space.
- Super Bowl 59 Winner: Ah, the pinnacle of every NFL season - the Super Bowl. We'll visit the latest Super Bowl odds to predict which teams have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in 2025.
- Player Futures: MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year: In 2023, I nailed Lamar Jackson at +1600 to win MVP. The man single-handedly is paying for my wedding suit.
- 2024 Free Agency: Free agency plays a crucial role in team dynamics. We'll discuss impending free agents, including star players who could be on the move. Will your favorite team sign a game-changing wide receiver? And better yet, does the betting market agree or disagree?
- 2024 Trades: Trades can transform a team's fortunes overnight. We'll keep an eye on trade rumors and speculate on blockbuster deals that could reshape the landscape. We will look to unearth the value of potential trades we think could happen that will dramatically influence the “Next Team†betting markets.
- 2024 NFL Draft: The draft is a pivotal event where teams select fresh talent to bolster their rosters. We'll analyze potential impact prospects and see if we can find value with where/when these rookies will be drafted come late April.
So, buckle up, football fans! The 2024 NFL season promises drama, surprises and unforgettable moments. Whether you're a die-hard offseason bettor or just love getting the value before lines move, this article will be page one of your NFL Futures playbook for the 2024 season.
- Updated NFL Conference Winner Odds
- Updated NFL Division Winner Odds
- Updated NFL Season Win Total Odds
- Updated NFL To Make the Playoffs Odds
2024-2025 NFL Futures: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted)
Super Bowl Winner: Cincinnati Bengals (+1500 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Buy the injury discount. The Bengals have the seventh-most cap space available heading into the 2024 offseason. They will play a last-place Strength of Schedule (SOS) after finishing fourth in the AFC North last season. Joe Burrow's salary cap hit is less than $30M in 2024 compared to over $45M every season following from 2025 and beyond.
The team has already discussed franchise-tagging Tee Higgins to keep him for one more year. They are ready to push their chips in for the 2024 season.
The defense can only improve after last season after finishing 23rd in DVOA. They were seventh and 16th the two years prior under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. A healthier Bengals team can give the Chiefs a run for their money in the AFC.
The Bengals and Chiefs have met in the AFC Championship games twice over the past three seasons. There’s a good chance we’ll see them continue the collision course at the end of the 2024-2025 season. Given Cincy’s easier regular season schedule compared to the other AFC powerhouses (Bills, Chiefs, Ravens), I like their odds of getting back to the Super Bowl at 15-1 odds. The Joe Burrow-led Bengals are 5-1 versus the Bills and Chiefs since 2021 (including postseason).
The Bengals were listed at +1100 odds last season to win the Super Bowl. I bet them then and will bet them now.
MVP: Joe Burrow (+1000 FanDuel Sportsbook)
MVP comes down to two simple principles: the best quarterback on the team with the best record.
Currently, the teams with the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl while boasting an easier SOS include the Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles, Dolphins and Chargers.
Last season, the Bengals' O/U win total was at 11.5, tied with the Chiefs for the highest in the NFL. Cincinnati has averaged 11.5 wins in Burrow's two fully healthy seasons. He has a 65% win rate over the last three seasons.
Lamar Jackson had the shortest odds among QBs to win the OPOY Award a year ago. QBs usually don't win this award, but it's worth noting that the QB with the shortest odds to win OPOY is Jalen Hurts. His 2024 MVP odds at +1600 are almost identical to Jackson's from last year.
The Chargers are also pretty enticing. If Justin Herbert gets the right coaching and offensive pieces around him under Jim Harbaugh, this team could turn things around rather quickly. Herbert is +1400, which I don’t love, so I’d rather bite the bullet on LAC +3000 to win the Super Bowl. They will be a team to bet the “over†on their win totals, as they are due for positive regression based on finishing under their win totals number in the last four seasons.
Offensive Player of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase (+1200)
Don't think you need to overthink this one, folks. In three of the last five seasons, the winner of AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year has been a WR that led the NFL in receiving yards. The only exceptions were during Derrick Henry's 2,000-yard campaign and in 2023 with Christian McCaffrey. Still, we all know Tyreek Hill was a sure-fire bet to win the award last season had he not gotten hurt toward the end of the year.
Ja'Marr Chase owns the fifth-shortest odds of being the OPOY in 2024 (+1200). During his last seven games played with Burrow in 2023 (when Burrow was mostly healthy), Chase was on pace for 143 catches, 1,824 yards and 12 TDs.
Note that I would wait to place this bet, as the odds will likely become longer if and when Tee Higgins signs his franchise tag with the Bengals.
I would also like to highlight Amon-Ra St. Browns' ludicrous 25-1 odds to win this award (35-1 on Caesars Sportsbook). He was third in receiving yards last season in just 16 games played.
For even longer shot odds, Brandon Aiyuk is super intriguing at +15000 on Caesars Sportsbook. He finished seventh in receiving yards last season and ninth in receiving yards per game (84), the same as A.J. Brown. If one of the other "Big Three" 49ers players gets hurt, Aiyuk could explode, given his elite talent. The 49ers were fourth in passing yards in 2023.
Defensive Player of the Year: Aidan Hutchinson (+1200)
Everybody that won DPOY votes in 2022 (besides Sauce Gardner and Minkah Fitzpatrick) posted 12-plus sacks. The same sentiment was held in 2023, with the top four leaders in DPOY posting at least 14 or more sacks.
We had a defensive back (DaRon Bland) record nine INTs (five for TDs) and he got one vote. TLC said it best not to chase waterfalls, but let’s be real here. Don’t go chasing defensive backs.
The winner in two of the last three seasons has posted 18-plus sack totals.
The path for the DPOY is through sack production, which naturally comes as a bonus by playing for a winning team. More leads, more pass-rush snaps, etc.
Last season, I was on the Aidan Hutchinson train, along with some longer shot bets on Josh Allen (Jaguars) and Jaelan Phillips.
Allen had 19 sacks, Hutchinson had 11 and Philips had seven sacks in just eight games. I was on the pulse of many of the top-end sack producers at longer shot odds, but it wasn't enough to overcome the name brands of Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons.
Aside from the raw sack production, I will look to aim at a defensive player who plays on a team without a star QB this year. This gives voters a reason to vote for this defender because they are not giving credit to the team's offense as much. Watt and Garrett got steam because their impacts were larger due to their teams’ lack of QB star power.
Therefore, Hutchinson is right back at the top of my betting board at 12-1 odds (14-1 on Caesars Sportsbook). Nobody is going to vote for Jared Goff to win anything. Hutchinson left sack production on the table last season, finishing second in total pressures (101) but 18th in sack production. He had eight sacks in his last five games played.
The other names that stand out in terms of players due for larger sack totals include the reigning winner of the DROY, Will Anderson Jr. He only had eight sacks last season despite generating the most pressure on his defense. His teammates, Jonathan Greenard and Maliek Collins, combined for 21 sacks on fewer pressures individually. Anderson Jr. had five sacks over his last six games. The only concern for Anderson Jr. is the C.J. Stroud hype might be too much for him to overcome. Still, the odds are great at +3500, given he can easily flirt with 15-plus sacks on a high-profile team. Also, he's already in voters’ minds after winning DROY in 2023.
Josh Sweat also underwhelmed in the sack column despite finishing 15th in total pressures. With Haason Reddick requesting a trade and Vic Fangio entering as the DC, the sack numbers could pile up quickly for Sweat. I love his longshot odds at +8000, as I do for his teammate, second-year DT Jalen Carter (+5000). One of these players could post monster sack numbers in the Fangio scheme.
Voters are also well aware of Carter's abilities, given he finished narrowly behind Anderson Jr. in the DROY voting in 2023.
2024 NFL Draft Futures
My approach to betting on the NFL Draft is to build a portfolio of bets where I focus more on long shots the further we are out from the end of April. We are so limited with information currently that shorter bets are probably being overvalued. Focus on the long shots and build off these bets the closer we get to April 25th.
Bo Nix To Be Drafted by the New Orleans Saints (+900)
Derek Carr did enough in the second half of last season to keep the starting job in 2024. But after the 2024 season, his dead cap falls to $17 million versus his $45 million salary cap hit. If he underwhelms in 2024, he could be on the way out of New Orleans. Ergo, I would not rule out the Saints adding a QB in this year's draft class under new OC Klint Kubiak. They won't add any QBs in free agency with Carr entrenched as the starter, so I think these odds will only get shorter, given that the Vikings, Raiders, Patriots, Broncos and Falcons are in more dire straits at the QB position currently. Those teams will likely alter their QB rooms in free agency, pushing their odds of selecting a rookie signal caller down the board. Also, there is a chance that Nix falls in the draft into late Round 1/early Round 2, and the Saints pick again at No. 45 overall.
Brock Bowers To Be Drafted by the New England Patriots (+3600 FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is something to keep tabs on. New OC Alex Van Pelt loves tight ends. It is very possible that if the Patriots trade down, they could scoop up Brock Bowers near the top 10 instead of selecting him at 3rd overall. Note that Bowers has shorter odds of being the first non-QB drafted (+2000), despite the Patriots selecting at three, which is the most realistic earliest slot he could be taken.
I also like the odds of Bowers being drafted by the Giants at +1900 on FanDuel Sportsbook. New York showed value in the tight end position last season with the acquisition of Darren Waller. OC Mike Kafka comes from the Chiefs regime, where the tight end played a pivotal role in their offensive success. A lot of connections have them to a top receiver in the draft with somebody like Malik Nabers, but it is very possible they go in a different direction with tight end instead. Bowers is talked about as the “best pure receiver†in the class by many scouts, so it’s not impossible that he could be viewed extremely highly by Big Blue.
Jayden Daniels To Be Drafted by the Denver Broncos (+1600)
These are the longest/best odds I could find on a QB-needy. Jayden Daniels could go as early as second overall or - given his one-year breakout - perhaps fall farther than most expect into the teens. Denver could also trade up with New England, putting them in a position to snag the LSU product. The Broncos have been in QB Purgatory ever since the Peyton Manning days. If Sean Payton wants “his guy†(possibly Daniels), he will do whatever it takes to move up and get him.
Michael Penix Jr. To Be Drafted by the New Orleans Saints (+2500 FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is the same sentiment about Nix to the Saints. Michael Penix Jr. and Nix seem to be falling into a third tier behind the other four top QBs in this draft class, making who picks them a total guessing game if they start to slip. I like my chances of at least one of these players being on the board when the Saints pick at No. 14 and potentially at pick 45.
Again, the move on the play for the Saints stems from them entering the draft with the same QB situation they are currently in. The Patriots, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders all seemed primed to add QBs before the NFL Draft, making it less likely (at least by the projected betting markets) that they will draft a QB highly.
Malik Nabers to be first non-QB drafted (+1000 ESPN BET)
Date: 2/26/2024
Here’s a new one since I first published this article. This came to my attention from one of my buddies and sharpest minds in the industry, Josh Larky. Nabers has a chance to steal the show at the Scouting Combine and just has to convince one team picking inside the top-5 he’s the better WR to draft over Marvin Harrison Jr.
Alas, Nabers also elected to sit out testing at the NFL Combine. We will have to wait until the end of March to see him blow up the odds in his favor. In the meantime, I’ll take advantage of the potential he goes ahead to Arizona ahead of Harrison Jr. Marvin Harrison Jr.’s odds of being the Chargers pick at No. 5? +1400.
Also Adam Schefter said on his recent podcast, that he heard from multiple trusted sources at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, that Nabers and not Harrison Jr. would be the 1st WR drafted come April.
Players Next Team
Russell Wilson To Take First Snap With the Chicago Bears (+7500)
I think there's a non-zero chance that Russell Wilson could land back under Shane Waldron in Chicago. Wilson could sign a super cheap deal on the veteran minimum with the Bears, as Denver will be on the books for the majority of his contract hit. I think his listed odds at +7500 to land in Chicago are pretty ludicrous, given the relationship he has with Waldron. The only “issue†if Wilson ends up as a back-up/bridge QB in Chicago is that he could go there and not play, putting this longshot in jeopardy.
Wilson was initially drawn to Waldron due to his experience with Sean McVay's coaching staff and familiarity with McVay's offensive system. So, in addition to Waldron, Wilson is theoretically tied to other McVay coaching tree QB-needy teams, such as the Vikings (+1000) or Falcons (+450). I like the Falcons the most among the shorter odds listed for “Russ.â€
Kirk Cousins To Take First Snap With the Minnesota Vikings (-200)
I think Kirk Cousins will return to the Vikings. This man shops at Kohl’s and is rehabbing a torn Achilles. He values comfort and routine. I can’t imagine that, coming off all his success with Kevin O’Connell, he’s ready to just sign with a brand new team. The odds of -200 are juicy for Cousins to return to the Vikings, but not enough to avoid it altogether, with overwhelming evidence the two parties look to keep Cousins as a Viking, at least for the 2024 season.
Josh Jacobs To Take First Snap for the Houston Texans (+850)
The Texans have the cap space to splurge at the RB position, and I think Josh Jacobs could be their man. We saw “CMC†go nuclear in the 49ers offense the past two seasons. If Houston - with the fifth-most available cap space - wants to take their offense to the next level, adding Jacobs could be the exact move they need to make to upgrade from Devin Singletary/Dameon Pierce.
Also, the Texans under Nick Caserio are well-known for loving players from Alabama. Anderson Jr., John Metchie, Henry To’oTo’o, and Christian Harris have been selected from the Crimson Tide in the last two drafts since Caserio (from the Patriots) landed in Houston as their GM. DeMeco Ryans also played his college ball at Alabama.
The final connection that ties Jacobs to the Texans is Ben McDaniels (Josh McDaniels’ brother, former HC of the Raiders and Jacobs) works for Houston as the WRs/Offensive passing game coordinator.
Justin Fields To Take First Snap With the Las Vegas Raiders (+1400)
The writing is on the wall that the Bears will trade Justin Fields. I wrote about it my first 2024 NFL Mock Draft. But to whom is the real question. Atlanta is the team with the hottest QB trade market (+400 to land Fields). If you recall, the Falcons were also in the QB market when Fields came out of the draft, ultimately passing on him for Kyle Pitts with the fourth-overall pick. If they didn't take him then under GM Terry Fontenot, what has the Bears QB shown over the last three years to make him worth giving up premium draft capital for? That's a question the Falcons brass will be asking.
Schematically speaking, Fields hardly fits the mold of any QB we have seen in the McVay scheme. We saw the disaster that Trey Lance ended up being a "dual threat" in this offense under Kyle Shanahan.
So even though it seems like it's an easy 'fit' to put Fields in Atlanta on paper, I am not so sure the new brass sees it that way after foregoing their chance to draft him back in 2021. The optics are certainly different, but the fact that they never showed that much love for Fields back in 2021 has me hesitant to say they will go out and acquire him under the same GM and owner.
The Raiders (once +500 to land Fields) is an underrated landing spot, considering they just hired the Bears' former OC, Luke Getsy, as their new OC. I'd hardly say the relationship (at least on the surface driven by the media) between Fields/Getsy was so strong that it would signify a trade. However, looking back at some comments that Getsy made about Fields before Week 18 - great relationship, inspiration, belief - the Raiders might not be the worst spot for Fields to land. After all, he did progress again as a passer - even if it wasn't perfect - and another year in the Getsy system with more weapons in Las Vegas could be EXACTLY what Fields needs to make a year-four leap. Don't forget that Fields' season could have gone much smoother had he not suffered a dislocated thumb injury in the middle of the year.
More recently, Getsy praised Fields as “one of the best human beings I've ever got to work with.†Considering these futures markets move on stuff like Mike Tomlin being a “big fan†of Fields to the extent of his odds of being a Steeler to be bet down to -120, the 14-to-odds with a different (but equal) driving narrative is where I see the most value. That’s especially the case when there have been conflicting reports about the Steelers wanting to move forward with former first-rounder Kenny Pickett, taking them out of the Fields market entirely.
Fields knows he has a believer in him with Getsy, and that's not necessarily the case with the remaining Bears coaching staff, especially under new OC Shane Waldron.
If Fields is reunited with Getsy in Las Vegas, we could see a fantasy football bonanza. From Week 4 onward in Chicago, Fields averaged nearly 22 fantasy points per game. Also, Raiders assistant GM Champ Kelly was the previous Bears' assistant director of player personnel when the team selected Fields in the 2021 NFL Draft before joining the Raiders in 2022 as the assistant GM. He was hired as the interim general manager after the firing of general manager Dave Ziegler in 2023.
The other team that I think could throw their hat in the Fields' ring is the Commanders (+1400). Kliff Kingsbury runs the Air Raid offense, and Fields' dual-threat ability - similar to that of Kyler Murray - makes it a potential fit. It is also possible that the Raiders looking at Kingsbury before Getsy was a move made in preparation for a trade for Fields.
Mike Evans To Take First Snap for the Carolina Panthers (+1600)
Mike Evans already has a ring and might just want to chase the money at his point. Given the Tampa Bay coaching connection he has with Dave Canales and Brad Idzik, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him land in Carolina.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: