Erickson’s Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)
Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 1 betting. Get ready to dive deep into the heart of the action and maximize your gridiron glory with my favorite Week 1 player prop picks!
Erickson’s Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets
Deshaun Watson OVER 23.5 rushing yards (-110 DraftKings)
My stone-cold player prop of the week is the OVER on Deshaun Watson’s 23.5 rushing yards prop. He averaged nearly 30 rushing yards per game last season and was frequently scrambling during the preseason. With the potential that this game shoots out - third-highest total on the slate - Watson should fly over this number with plenty of dropback opportunities. The BettingPros prop bet analyzer has Watson projected for 28.4 rushing yards, putting him comfortably over the betting line.
Tyler Higbee OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)
I am just going to take the low-hanging fruit with tight-end Tyler Higbee. Cooper Kupp is out, and the only reason Higbee's 44.5 receiving yards prop isn't higher is due to his lack of receiving numbers posted in the second half of last season when Kupp and Matthew Stafford were hurt. But in the two games that Kupp missed or left early in 2022, Higbee posted 45 and 73 receiving yards with Stafford at the helm - seizing eight targets in each contest.
Travis Etienne OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-110 BetMGM)
The Jaguars are going to score points in this matchup and will have the opportunity to run the football. The Jags leading RB rusher versus the Colts last season averaged 75 rushing yards. The Prop Bet Analyzer loves the Travis Etienne rushing over. He went over that line in four of his last five starts toward the end of the 2022 season.
Anthony Richardson OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)
Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson is what has me really intrigued in Colts-Jaguars, especially because the Jaguars' defense was poor versus mobile QBs a season ago. They allowed the third-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing attempts from opposing QBs. Jalen Hurts (38), Daniel Jones (107), Patrick Mahomes (39), and Lamar Jackson (89) all posted effective rushing totals against the Jaguars under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. Considering I think that Richardson can do more than the markets are giving him credit for against last year's 30th-ranked pass defense in DVOA...watch A-Rich create some plays with legs in his rookie debut. He averaged nearly 60 rushing yards per game at Florida.
Rachaad White OVER 2.5 receptions (-150 DraftKings)
A player who will play a large role in ensuring the Buccaneers’ offense gets points against the Vikings is running back Rachaad White. His 2.5 receptions prop is egregiously low. Once he became the starter last year over Leonard Fournette, he hit the over in 6 of his 7 games played. Baker Mayfield is a dump-off savant and will look toward White as a check-down option early and often.
Treylon Burks UNDER 3.5 receptions (-114 FanDuel)
A potential lack of offensive fireworks in a game with a 42-point projected total – betting the under in the BettingPros Primer – has me sniffing around for player prop unders, specifically with second-year WR Treylon Burks. The team already projects to be run-heavy with Derrick Henry, and the underrated Saints secondary will pose problems. Burks had more than four receptions once last season. And now alpha target-earner DeAndre Hopkins enters the fold, making it less likely Burks will go over his projected total.
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