Erickson’s Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)
Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 2 betting. We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2. I’ve added more to the betting card this week, along with anytime TD prop after I personally hit on 1st TD bet for T.J. Hockenson Thursday night. Let’s ride the hot streak!
Get ready to dive deep into the heart of the action and maximize your gridiron glory with my favorite Week 2 player prop picks!
Erickson’s Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bets
Darren Waller OVER 41.5 receiving yards (DK -130)
Darren Waller only played slightly over half the snaps in Week 1 but he was heavily targeted. Totaled 5 targets, a 17% target share and a 22% target rate per route run. He ended the game with 3 catches for 36 yards before getting pulled in the blowout loss. But he was far and beyond Daniel Jones’ favorite target. And the way that the Washington Commanders offense attacked the Arizona Cardinals last week, bodes well for Waller to continue to see heavy targets. Arizona faced a 34.5% target share to TEs, the second-highest rate in Week 1. Commanders TEs Logan Thomas and Cole Turner combined for 5 catches for 60 yards on 10 targets.
Drake London UNDER 49.5 receiving yards (DK -115)
Drake London has gone under this number in 11 straight games that he and Kyle Pitts have played together. We saw Bears No. 1 WR D.J. Moore disappear versus this GB defense in Week 1. Darnell Mooney was the only WR who was productive for the Bears versus the Packers, and it was all production from inside the slot. 4 catches for 53 yards and 1 TD on 6 slot targets. London ran two slot routes last week despite a 91% route participation. When star WRs don’t get targeted, most coaches talk them up the following week. Not Arthur Smith, who claims London doesn’t care about his lack of targets.
Deshaun Watson OVER 24.5 rushing yards (Caesars -115)
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. The rushing line props moved one yard for Deshaun Watson from last week. Not high enough. So again, we are smashing the over. Watson rushed for 45 yards in a non-competitive game in Week 1. He’s averaged 30 rushing yards since becoming the Browns starter last season. And with the Steelers boasting an elite pass rush, I expect Watson to scramble more than ever to pick up yardage with his legs. The stone-cold lock of the week is BACK.
D.J. Moore OVER 3.5 receptions (BetMGM +110)
D.J. Moore posted a 94% route participation in Week 1 but only saw two targets versus stud Packers CB, Jaire Alexander. But the fact that Justin Fields attempted more passes in Week 1 than he did at ANY point last season will lead to much better days for Chicago’s No. 1 WR. Pound the over 3.5 receptions at plus-money odds. Works in Moore’s favor they have a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary in Week 2. Moore has faced them many times in the past. The last time he faced them, Moore blew up for 117 yards on 6 catches with a score on 10 targets. The Buccaneers allowed 242 receiving yards to WRs in Week 1.
C.J. Stroud OVER 12.5 rushing yards (BetMGM -120)
Stroud can move, and the Texans rookie quarterback looked way better than the Week 1 box score would suggest. He stood strong in the pocket and took several hits behind a patchwork OL. Stroud was not intimidated despite playing in a house of horrors at Baltimore. He also looked more mobile than he ever was at Ohio State, scrambling four times for 20 yards. It’s an easy over here play with him likely forced to scramble behind the aforementioned subpar offensive line. The Texans gave up 38 yards on the ground to Lamar Jackson in Week 1.
Cam Akers UNDER 7.5 receiving yards (Prizepicks)
Cam Akers under 8.5 receiving yards is a gimme. He ran 2 routes last week in a game where the Rams ran 78 plays. Kyren Williams is the preferred receiving back in the Rams’ offense, not Akers. If not for Watson prop, this would be the other stone-cold lock of the week.
Terry McLaurin UNDER 47.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Two words. Patrick Surtain. Brutal cornerback matchup in Week 2. Also, McLaurin posted just a 14% target share in Sam Howell’s second start. Just four targets and fourth on the team in targets. 10% target rate. Easy fade.
Jahan Dotson OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM)
Conversely, bet the over on No. 2 Commanders WR, Jahan Dotson. Dotson went 5 for 40 receiving yards in Week 1 on 7 targets. He led the team in routes run with a 95% route run rate and finished 1st in air yards share (30%). Sell McLaurin and buy Dotson after a quiet Week 1. Denver couldn’t cover Jakobi Meyers with No. 2 cornerback, Damarri Mathis, who Dotson will get plenty of in Week 2.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 221.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Bengals should be able to harass Lamar Jackson especially if starting tackle Ronnie Stanley is not at 100% or misses the game. When Stanley missed part of their Week 5 matchup last season, Jackson was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks. The Ravens QB averaged 5.4 yards per attempt and was held under 180 total passing yards. I like the under on Jackson’s passing yards prop in Week 2. He’s gone under this number in 10 of his last 13 games played. He’s also thrown for 200-plus yards just once in his last four matchups versus the Bengals’ defense.
Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+360 FanDuel Sportsbook), First TD scored (+1400 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Cowboys tight end led the Cowboys in target share (28%, 7 targets) in Week 1 but he only caught 2 passes for 11 yards. The tight end played 72% of the snaps and ran a route on just 58% of dropbacks. He did not have great overall usage, but he was hyper-targeted in the red zone with an overall 43% target rate per route run.
He has TD upside as four of his targets came in the red zone (three inside the 10-yard line). Ferguson also played 11 snaps inside the 10-yard line, tied for the most among all skill players in Week 1 (Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers).
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