Erickson’s Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2023)
Welcome to Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best values. In this guide, we’ll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 3 betting. We had a great outing in Week 1, going 4-2.
Week 2 was a step back going 2-6-1, but the Jake Ferguson anytime TD and first TD prop saved our bankroll.
Let’s bounce back in Week 3 as we dive deep into the heart of the action and maximize your gridiron glory with my favorite Week 3 player prop picks!
Erickson’s Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets
Lamar Jackson OVER 7.5 rushing attempts (-125 BetMGM)
Lamar Jackson is at plus-money odds to toss two-plus passing TDs. Both QBs the Colts have faced this season have thrown 2 passing TDs. Jackson has thrown at least 2 TDs in five of his last 8 games played with Rashod Bateman (basically just a healthy WR) in the starting lineup.
But given the weather calling for some wind and rain, probably smart to be the over on Lamar Jackson’s 7.5 rushing attempts prop. Hit the over in 10 of his last 14 games. Averaged 9 rushes per game this season. 12 scrambles and 6 designed runs in total. Jackson had five designed runs last week after all the running back injuries. With Justice Hill also questionable to play, think Jackson continues to see plenty of usage as a rusher in Week 3. The BettingPros prop bet cheat sheet has Jackson’s rushing prop listed at 9.3 attempts giving it a 70% chance of covering.
Zay Flowers OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Colts are emerging as one of the league's premier pass-funnel defenses with the team avoiding their strong defensive front. They have allowed just 2.6 yards per carry on the ground this season. Essentially a no-run zone aside from one big rush allowed to Travis Etienne Jr. back in Week 1. Therefore, I expect the offense to flow through Lamar Jackson and the passing game to get the Ravens the big home win and continue their flawless streak against the spread in 2023. The Ravens are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games.
Jackson's completing nearly 75% of his passes through two games, getting the ball out faster than he has ever done in his NFL career. Bet the overs on his receivers. Zay Flowers’ receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 despite him going over that number in his first two NFL starts. Over his first two games, Flowers ranks 5th in the NFL with a 31% target share and 90% routes run rate. The Colts have allowed the 4th-most receiving yards and receptions to WRs this season.
For a bigger payout, look for his receptions prop over 4.5 at plus-money odds (+124 DK Sportsbook).
Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 7.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM)
After being super involved in the passing game in Week 1, Ezekiel Elliott ran a route on just 19% of dropbacks in Week 2 with zero targets. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he catches zero passes for the second straight game. Regardless we are slamming the under on his receiving yards prop set at 7.5 yards. Elliot is averaging fewer than 3 yards per reception this season. So even if he does catch a couple of passes, chances are he won’t actually pick up the yardage to get over the receiving line. The Patriots are going to throw less versus the Jets than they have over the first two weeks of the season because it’s unlikely they fall behind by two touchdowns from the get-go for the 3rd straight game. The under on Zeke’s 1.5 receptions is the third-highest-ranked expected value bet in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Jaylen Warren OVER 2.5 receptions (+105 BetMGM)
Running back Jaylen Warren has 2.5 catches in four straight games including 4.5 per game over his last two this season. He is tied for league-lead in targets (11) among RBs. He is the preferred receiving back over Najee Harris for the Pittsburgh Steelers and should fly over 2.5 catches. No-brainer bet at plus-odds.
The Raiders lead the NFL in completion percentage allowed (82%). This is because they play a cover 2 look with their safeties back. Opens the field for RBs and TEs to feast underneath.
This player prop ranks 4th in expected value in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Deshaun Watson OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I am just betting on this prop every single week even as it creeps up. Because if it ain't broke don't fix it. Watson rushed for 45 yards in a non-competitive game in Week 1. He's averaged 30 rushing yards since becoming the Browns starter last season. And he came up just short last week because one of his 7-yard scrambles was called back due to a penalty. Trust the process.
Deshaun Watson OVER 30.5 passing attempts (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Titans boast the league's second-best run defense based on expected points and the Browns just lost their best running back on Monday night. Jerome Ford and newly signed Kareem Hunt are not going to be able to run on this front. That's going to put Deshaun Watson in the driver's seat to win the game with his arm. Bet the over on his passing attempts with QBs averaging considering QBs have averaged 39.2 pass attempts versus the Titans since the start of last season. Watson threw 40 times on Monday Night Football after Nick Chubb got injured.
DeAndre Hopkins UNDER 51.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
DeAndre Hopkins needs volume to get to his yardage totals and that doesn't work in his favor in a tough matchup. He's averaging just 1.0 yards after the catch per reception this season. He’s still dealing with an ankle injury that has limited his practice repetitions. He only ran a route on 72% of dropbacks in Week 2 and was targeted once in the first half. Considering how much better Tannehill played when he wasn’t just jamming targets to Hopkins, the under of his yardage is the recommended play. The weather also doesn’t look great in Cleveland for Sunday’s game.
Terry McLaurin UNDER 4.5 receptions (-136 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Terry McLaurin UNDER 52.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I leaning toward the under on Sam Howell's passing yards. He has only gone over 220 passing yards in one of his three NFL starts (last week) and that came on the back of three passing plays of 30-plus yards. The majority of the chunk yardage the Commanders picked up versus the Broncos was YAC. The Bills have allowed the 6th-fewest yards after the catch and fewer than 200 passing yards in both contests this season. The Commanders had one play of 20-plus yards versus the Cardinals in Week 1.
I like parlaying the Howell under with the under on Terry McLaurin's receiving yards prop. McLaurin has just a 14% target rate per route run - same as Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel - and a 16% target share this season. Outside a 30-yard TD catch in Week 2, TMC has totaled six catches for 55 yards through two games. Prefer the 4.5 receptions under versus the yardage.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects running back Brian Robinson Jr. to fly over his carry total set at 14.5 (projected for 17 attempts at -110) which correlates and bolsters my stance on betting the under on the Commanders passing game. The weather is also calling for rain and wind, which could influence how Washington game plans for Buffalo. They are likely going for a run-heavy approach, as a shootout versus Josh Allen probably isn’t ideal.
Tyler Higbee 1st TD scored (+1400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I think there's value in some Rams players’ TD props on Monday night. Tyler Higbee ranks third in the NFL in routes and fourth in route participation among TEs (84%). He's also just one of 9 tight ends to have played 90% or more of their team's red-zone snaps this season. After finishing 3rd in targets inside the 10-yard line last year...I think he gets the opportunity if the Rams dial up a pass in the red zone. The Bengals have allowed a receiving TD to a tight end for two straight games. And given the slow start for the Bengals offense this year, I think it's safe to sprinkle in Higbee’s first touchdown action should the Rams strike first.
The Rams’ offense is vastly overdue for positive passing TD regression. Second in pass attempts per game and third in passing yards per game but dead last in pass TD rate. The Bengals are allowing the 10th-highest pass TD rate this season.
Donald Parham Jr. Anytime TD (+425), 1st TD scored (+3000 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tight end Donald Parham Jr. leads all Chargers in snaps inside the 5-yard line. In Week 1 he saw three targets from inside the 10-yard line and scored. In Week 2, Parham played more snaps and ran more routes than Gerald Everett. So, we are potentially looking at a starting tight end playing in a game with the highest projected total on the slate by a VAST margin who is clearly a preferred red-zone option for the Chargers. +425 for an any time TD and 30-to-odds to score the 1st TD in the game. He's six-foot-eight PEOPLE. You can't miss him and neither will his quarterback Justin Herbert.
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