Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Florida Atlantic: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections
March Madness is here, which means itâs time for me to dust off the olâ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players Iâve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
Iâll be honest: I donât follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I donât take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a âmodelâ (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA menâs basketball tournament, and since then Iâve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)