Falcons vs. Cowboys NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 9)
Introducing the Week 9 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Falcons vs. Cowboys.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 9 Betting Primer>>
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Sides
- The road team has won eight of the Cowboys' last nine games.
- The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Cowboys' last 10 games.
- Dallas is 4-7 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
- The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games as home underdogs.
- The overall favorites have covered the spread in 19 of the Cowboys' last 26 games.
- Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost three straight home games.
- They are 3-1 on the road this season and ATS.
- The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last five road games.
- The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 9-5 as home favorites on the money line.
- The Falcons are 9-14-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 7-6 straight up.
- The underdogs have won 11 of the Falcons’ last 20 games.
- The Falcons are 5-5 ATS on the road, 3-4 ATS as road favorites, and 6-12 ATS on the road straight up.
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- The Falcons have won five of their last seven games.
- Atlanta is 9-5 on the money line as home favorites (14-9 at home overall).
- The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 5-9 ATS (36%).
- The Falcons have won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
Totals:
- Seven of the Cowboys' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Fourteen of the Cowboys' last 21 games (67%) have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders in the last 13 of 19 games through the air.
- Games in Dallas have averaged north of 58 points this season (3-0 O/U).
- Since 2023, Dallas is 9-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
- Fourteen of the Cowboys' last 17 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Atlanta is 2-3 towards the over this season at home, averaging just under 46 points per game.
- The Falcons are 4-4 O/U this season.
- Five of the Falcons’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Atlanta is 2-1 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging 50.5 points.
- At home, they are 2-3 O/U, averaging 46.2 points per game.
- Four of the Falcons’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
The Falcons are home favorites against a Dallas Cowboys team that only has won its games on the road this season. What could go wrong? Well, against the Cowboys, they might stand a chance of covering the 2.5-point spread, given that Dallas hasn't been the most profitable backing as a road underdog. That being said, the last two times Dallas has been +2.5 on the road this season, they have covered and won outright.
Dallas' offense is dysfunctional. No question. But Atlanta's defense might be the worst unit they have faced all season.
Case in point, there's a reason why the total in this game is so high-52.5 points, rising from the 48.5 opening line.
Both defenses are bad.
The Falcons’ offense is good, especially when they have faced bad defenses like the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Saints.
It’s hard to imagine we don't get a flurry of points at home in the dome. The one hesitation for slamming the over comes down to a potential run-heavy approach from Atlanta against the Dallas Cowboys’ terrible run defense. According to Next Gen Stats, Bijan Robinson has recorded a 57.6% success rate on under-center runs this season, the highest rate among 36 running backs with at least 30 carries.
Robinson has gained 176 yards and scored a touchdown across 33 such carries, resulting in 5.3 yards per carry, the 7th-most among the same group of 36 running backs. Matchup: the Cowboys’ defense has given up the most touchdowns (11) and allowed the 2nd-highest success rate (49.3%) against under-center runs this season.
The Falcons have a -4% pass rate over expectation in the last three weeks.
If Atlanta controls this game, they can simply run the ball. They need to be pushed into a more aggressive mindset by Dallas. Whether Big D's offense shows up or not...well the jury is out. Dallas has the worst red-zone defense in the NFL and second-worst red-zone offense.
Per Next Gen Stats, Dak Prescott has thrown into a tight window on a league-high 22.5% of his passes this season, making him the only qualified quarterback with a mark over 20%. Prescott has completed 7 of 12 tight window passes for 127 yards and a touchdown when targeting Jalen Tolbert but just 11 of 47 tight window passes for 137 yards and two interceptions when targeting all other receivers. The Falcons defense has forced a tight window on 18.0% of passes this season, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.
What works in Prescott's favor in this game from a passing perspective is that he should have time in the pocket because the Falcons can't generate pressure. The issue is Prescott has the third-worst passer rating from a clean pocket.
Atlanta has been horrible defending lightbox fronts (4th-most yards allowed), using its defense in that formation at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL. The Falcons are also bad against rushing inside the tackles (29th in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game).
Every running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).
I think Dallas could try to establish some type of run game with Rico Dowdle back in the lineup. A few weeks ago, I fell for the game total over in Atlanta when it was Seahawks-Falcons, and I refuse to make the same mistake again. Even if we see points, I'm still taking the under on this severely bloated total.
Props:
Jalen Tolbert has at least 40.5 receiving yards in three straight games and in five of his last six.
Mike McCarthy spoke at length last week about getting running back Rico Dowdle more touches. I'd envision he will see more schemed-up plays as a receiver, given that the Falcons rank fourth in receptions to RBs this season. Dowdle has at least 15.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and all but two RBs the Falcons have faced this season have yet to exceed their receiving yards prop.
No quarterback that Dallas has faced has attempted between 28 and 39 attempts. It's either been extremely under (four times) OR extremely over (40-plus attempts). Considering Kirk Cousins has only gone over his pass attempts twice this season, easy under play here against a Cowboys defense that ranks second in run rate faced this season.
My Picks: