Fenway Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (Louisville vs. Cincinnati)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Fenway Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the weekend.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
Fenway Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
Fenway Bowl | Boston, MA
Saturday, December 17 | 10:00 AM
Louisville (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati | Total: 41.5
ATL: Cincy -0.7 | ATT: 35.5
Cincinnati
QB Luther Richesson (Transfer portal)
QB Ben Bryant (Injury)
WR Nick Mardner (Transfer portal)
WR Jadon Thompson (Transfer portal)
WR Tre Tucker (Opt-out)
TE Josh Whyle (Opt-out)
OC Jake Renfro (Transfer portal)
CB JQ Hardaway (Transfer portal)
QB1 Bryant has been ruled out for the season with a foot injury. QB2 Evan Prater draws the start for Cincy. TE Whyle and WR Tucker, declaring for the NFL Draft, combined for 84 catches this fall. WR Mardner and WR Thompson combined for 46 receptions. In sum, Cincy is without four-of-their-top-five pass catchers.
Louisville
QB Malik Cunningham (Opt-out)
RB Trevion Cooley (Transfer portal)
RB Jalen Mitchell (Transfer portal)
CB Derrick Edwards (Transfer portal)
QB Cuningham, who was banged up throughout the campaign, aggravated his previous shoulder injury in the regular season finale against Kentucky. He’s chosen to opt-out. QB2 Brock Domann, who threw for 866 yards this year in relief of Cunningham, will draw another start.
Coaching news
Louisville’s staff was blown up following Satterfield’s defection to Cincinnati. Satterfield announced he won’t coach either of these teams in the bowl. Louisville named Deion Branch interim HC for this game. Not only that, but the assistants coming with Satterfield to Cincy – co-DCs Wesley McGriff and Brian Brown and QB coach Pete Thomas – also won’t participate in this game. In addition, Louisville OC Lance Taylor accepted Western Michigan’s HC gig, while strength coach Ben Sowders left for Arkansas.
On the other side, Cincinnati, obviously, also had to cobble together an interim staff for this game – former HC Luke Fickell, who accepted the Wisconsin job, will not coach in it. Instead, DC Kerry Coombs will serve as interim coach.
Handicap
So much to unpack, here!
While Cincinnati lost more contributors, I actually think the defections on both sides more or less amount to a wash. The reason for that is the drop-off from Louisville QB1 Malik Cunningham to QB2 Brock Domann is much, much larger than the drop-off from Cincinnati QB1 Ben Bryant to QB2 Evan Prater.
Louisville’s staff also took a much-heavier short-term hit during the Satterfield-swap. And though it’s fair to question whether Satterfield was the right coach for Cincinnati moving forward, it’s inarguable that Louisville is a motivation question after the entire roster unloaded on Twitter and to the media about its feelings over how Satterfield left.
QB2 Prater gave Bryant everything he could handle in the summer camp battle before ultimately losing the competition. But Prater has been a solidly above-average FBS quarterback when playing this fall. His 76.6 PFF grade isn’t far off from Bryant’s 80.4.
While Bryant is the clearly superior thrower (82.8 grade to Prater’s 66.6), Prater is the clearly superior runner (75.2 grade to Bryant’s 48.9). With Prater on the field, the defense needs to worry about another running threat.
Cincinnati’s run offense disappointed this season. But it ticked way up when Prater was behind center, as did calls for designed quarterback runs. It’s unfortunate for Prater that Cincy’s receiving corps and tight end corps suffered a mass-exodus after the regular season.
But this will encourage Cincy to run all the more – and this is exactly the area where Louisville’s defense is weakest. While Louisville’s pass defense is solid, you can nick the Cardinals on the ground – Louisville ranked outside the top-70 in both run defense success rate and marginal explosiveness, and the Cards rank a ghastly No. 119 in tackle success rate.
On the Louisville side, Cunningham’s loss hurts both Louisville’s passing and running games, and it makes the Cardinals less efficient while depriving them of the explosive element that made the Cunningham offenses so dangerous. Domann is a cement-footed pocket passer who isn’t there as a thrower yet. Domann ranks No. 139 out of 159 qualifying QBs in PFF grade.
Cincinnati’s defense remains nasty – No. 17 SP+ – and that unit didn’t lose anything of note. The Bearcats pass defense is elite, its run defense is stout, and Cincy has a top-30 tackling success rate.
I see a low-scoring, grind-it-out game coming. This, too, favors the Bearcats. Louisville better not fall behind by double-digits, because Domann throwing into that Cincy secondary is a turnover waiting to happen.
The picks: Cincy +1.5 | UNDER 41.5
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