Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
- 2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks & Predictions
- 2023 NCAA Tournament: Final Four Parlay Picks & Predictions
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model†(set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 293-225, +53.25 units (Through Elite 8)