Fortinet Championship PGA Tour Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Just weeks after the last season ended, the 2022-23 PGA Tour begins again this week with the 2022 Fortinet Championship. The hills of Napa Valley, Silverado Resort and Spa, will play host for the ninth straight year as Max Homa returns to defend his title.
With FedEx Cup points set back to zero and a LIV Golf event across the country in direct competition this week, let’s take a closer look at how things might play out in Northern California.
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Previous Winners of the Fortinet Championship
- 2021: Max Homa
- 2020: Stewart Cink
- 2019: Cameron Champ
Course Preview: Silverado Resort and Spa – North Course
Featuring narrow fairways, Silverado will be one of the shortest courses these golfers see all season on Tour, and once again, they should dominate. Over the past eight years, the winning scores have routinely hovered around -20, as the world’s best players simply overpower this course.
Originally opened in 1955, Silverado has been in the regular PGA Tour rotation since 2014, leaving plenty of course history and relevant betting metrics to draw on. Mostly a flat course, Silverado has one of the highest birdie ratios on Tour. Players with strong approach shots are often pin-seeking.
Relevant Betting Stats
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach
- SG: Around-the-Green
Outright Betting Pick
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
When he reportedly turned down an offer north of $500 million to join LIV Golf, Hideki Matsuyama very much put the Tour on notice that he is far from done competing at the very highest of levels. With back issues now seemingly behind him following a solid end to the 2022 season, Hideki shot under par all four days at the Tour Championship in late August.
As for his course history here at Silverado, Hideki ranks No. 3 in the field in true strokes gained at 1.68, with 14 rounds played over the years. In his four events at this course, Hideki has three top-20 finishes and two top-10 finishes, including a solo sixth last year that included a Sunday 66.
To finish the 2021-22 season, Hideki finished No. 6 on Tour in Approach and No. 14 in birdie average, two metrics that will suit him well here in Napa Valley. With a lighter than typical field given the shortened offseason, look for Hideki to finish at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. And while he has some of the shortest odds on the board, I have him closer to 10/1, making 16/1 hold plenty of value.
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