Fresno St. Bulldogs vs. San Diego St. Aztecs Odds & Game Pick (2021)

This game will decide who gets a chance to win the Mountain West. San Diego St. is 3-0 in conference play and 7-0 overall. Fresno St. is 3-1 in the conference and 6-2 overall. This game will be a great game against two teams that have a shot at winning the Mountain West. These teams both will have a chance to come away with this game. That means when betting, we need to look into which team has the most value. Here are things to look into during this premier matchup. 

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Details

• Opening Lines: San Diego St -0.5, Total 45.5

• Current Lines: San Diego St -1.0, Total 44.5

• Last Game: November 15, 2019, San Diego St. 17-7

Overview

San Diego State loves to run the ball. There is no question about that. They run the ball 68% of the time and have 1,449 yards running the ball compared to 847 passing yards. They win by playing great defense and controlling the clock. Their defense is giving up 15 points per game, and during conference play, that number dips down to 11 points per game. Teams have found success throwing the ball against San Diego St. That is important going into this matchup because Fresno St. loves to throw the ball.

Fresno St. does a great job throwing the ball. QB Jake Haener has a 68% completion percentage and has thrown for 2,582 yards. Haener is third in college football in throwing yards. He does a great job taking care of the football with only six turnovers on the year. Fresno St. is not as good defensively as San Diego St. They allow 23 points per game but have been decent at stopping the run. They held Oregon's Verdall to 78 yards and almost beat Oregon, losing 24-31 because of a late touchdown by Oregon. 

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Bottom Line

This matchup is good for Fresno St. They throw the ball well, and teams have had success against San Diego St. when throwing the ball. Fresno St. also does a decent job stopping the run. The matchup benefits Fresno St. too much. This game is a pick and moved to plus odds over the last couple of days. When there is a close game like this, I love to pick the plus odds. There is a chance either of these teams wins this game, but Fresno St. has more value than San Diego St. based on the matchup and the odds. 

Pick: Fresno St. Moneyline (+100)

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Cameron Lynch is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Cameron, check out his archive and follow him @captron26.