Friday’s Best MLB, WNBA, Big3 and USFL Bets (6/30)
No matter your sport of choice, there's always sports betting action to be had. We'll have you covered each and every day with our daily best bets. Here are all of our best bets across each major sport in action today.
Today's Best Bets
Here are today's best bets.
MLB Best Bets
San Diego Padres (-144) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+122)| O/U 11 (-118/-104)
San Diego Padres righty Seth Lugo has allowed 3+ runs in three of his last six starts, and he has missed fewer bats in road starts, with a 7.71 K/9 rate in five starts on the road compared to an 8.9 K/9 rate in five home starts.
Lugo heads to the Great American Ball Park, ranked second in Ballpark Pal's park factors in home runs and runs scored. He faces a Cincinnati Reds lineup that entered yesterday's day off ranked eighth in wRC+ and sixth in OPS against right-handed pitching in June.
Opposing Lugo is Reds righty Graham Ashcraft, who has the worst ERA (7.17), WHIP (1.67), ad WAR (-0.6) of any of Cincinnati's starting pitchers. Though Ashcraft's 5.84 xERA suggests positive regression is coming, he still ranks in the eighth percentile in xERA/xwOBA and the third percentile in xBA.
The Over has cashed in five of the eight games the Reds have played after a day off, which has us liking their chances of scoring runs off Lugo and fading the fact that the Padres have seen the Over cash in just 39% of their games this season.
Pick: Over 11 (-118)
-Mike Spector
Check out our other MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions:
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WNBA Best Bets
Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream
Betting on the WNBA is all about finding consistency. The Dream has been struggling to find that lately. In the last three games, the Dream lost their games by an average of 21 points. Until the Dream starts winning, bettors can take advantage of their struggles.
The Washington Mystics have improved over the last few games. They have won four of five games, and their one loss was an overtime game against the most talented team in the WNBA. The Mystics beat the Dream by 23 points the last time these teams played. All this means the Mystics have more consistency in this matchup.
Bet: Washington Mystics Moneyline (-145)
-Cameron Lynch
Big3 Best Bets
Trilogy vs. Triplets
Can Trilogy ride the duo of Earl Clark and Isaiah Briscoe all the way to the postseason? In Trilogy's Week 1 win, Clark and Briscoe combined for 46 of Trilogy's 52 points. They also had seven of the team's nine assists and 15 of the team's 18 rebounds. This week, they face Triplets, a team that looked very disappointing against Bivouac. Joe Johnson was the only player to score in double figures, as he put up 29 of the team's 47 points. Both of these teams need someone else to step up, and it's hard to trust either of them after their Week 1 performance. Therefore, we're going to play the under. These teams have very few scorers, and that is going to keep this one close and low-scoring.
Pick: Under 93.5 (-115)
-Phil Wood
USFL Best Bets
Birmingham Stallions vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
The Stallions are an offensive juggernaut. They led the USFL in scoring in the regular season, hanging 287 points on their opponents, 50 more than the second-highest mark. Birmingham didn't have a flawless defense, either. They ceded 196 points and coughed up the most yards per game (309.0).
Can the Maulers take advantage of the Stallions surrendering a USFL-high for yards? That's doubtful. The Maulers averaged only 18.9 points per game in 11 games this year. They scored at least 20 points only six times. However, two of their games scoring at least 20 points were against the Stars, twice was against the Panthers, once was against the Generals, and once was against the Stallions. Philadelphia allowed the most points, and Michigan allowed the third most in the USFL. So, the Maulers did their best work against the worst defenses in the league, casting doubt on their ability to pull their scoring weight for the over in this game.
The Stallions scored 47 points last week against the Breakers. New Orleans's defense allowed the fewest points per game (17.0) and the second-fewest yards per game (272.2) in the regular season, and they had no answers for Birmingham's elite offense. The Stallions scored at least 24 points 10 times in 11 games this season. Additionally, they cleared 30 points four times. Birmingham's offense is potent enough that they can handle the heavy lifting. However, these teams combined for 44 points in Week 4.
Pittsburgh's defense is also genuinely good, while their offense is legitimately pathetic. As a result, even if the Stallions hang 30 points on the Maulers, Pittsburgh might not have enough firepower to score the requisite 47 points for this game to go over the total. And since I'm expecting a blowout, Birmingham might salt the game away late, which would be suboptimal for the over. Therefore, the under is the pick.
Pick: Under 46.0 Points (-110)
-Josh Shepardson
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