Frisco Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (Boise State vs. North Texas)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Frisco Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the weekend.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
Frisco Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
Frisco Bowl | Frisco, TX
Saturday, December 17 | 8:15 PM
Boise State (-10.5) vs. North Texas | Total: 58
ATL: BSU -7.2 | ATT: 63
Boise State
QB Hank Bachmeier (Transfer portal)
RB George Holani (Injury)
WR Stefan Cobbs (Injury)
WR Cole Wright (Injury)
WR Austin Bolt (Injury)
TE Tyneil Hopper (Transfer portal)
LB Marco Notarainni (Injury)
RB Holani hurt his shoulder in the MWC title game. But he returned to practice last week and is expected to play. WR Cobbs missed the last two games of the regular season. He, along with WR Wright, are both questionable. WR Bolt and LB Notarainni, meanwhile, will both miss this game after suffering season-ending injuries.
North Texas
RB Oscar Adaway (Injury)
UNT QB Austin Aune will play in this game. But he’s already announced that he’ll declare for the NFL Draft after it. RB Adaway was North Texas’ RB1 up until suffering an injury against WKU in late-October. He hasn’t played since. His status for this game is unknown.
Coaching news
North Texas fired HC Seth Littrell despite reaching the CUSA title game. The program named DC Phil Bennett interim head coach for this game.
Handicap
North Texas has a strong offense, a top-20 special teams unit, and an awful defense. When they have the ball, the Mean Green are looking to hit home runs – they rank No. 1 in the nation in marginal explosiveness.
North Texas spreads the field with a deep receiving corps. QB Aune’s counting stats are flattered by his supporting cast and strength of the defenses he faced. But the former minor league baseball player, in his late-20’s, sufficiently shuttles the ball off to his playmakers and watches them make plays in space.
Defenses are concerned enough by UNT’s receiving corps that boxes tend to be a bit thin. The Mean Green’s equally-deep RB room – four-deep before RB Adaway went down – generally takes advantage.
Boise State’s defensive numbers are also a bit flattered. The Broncos had a run of good luck facing backup quarterbacks during the regular season. But the Broncos have a strong unit that is top-10 in efficiency. What Boise State struggles with is explosive plays – they rank No. 83 in explosiveness.
On the other side of the ball, Boise State’s passing game is mediocre. But its rushing attack is very good when dual-threat QB Taylen Green and RB Holani are on the field together. Those two are going to tee-off on UNT’s horrid run defense, which ranks No. 121 in success rate.
Aune, playing in his last collegiate game, is going to connect on a few explosive passes at least. And UNT’s rushing attack is similarly going to rip off a few long runs. Boise State is going to force UNT into some three-and-outs, but UNT’s explosion guarantees at least a few quick-scores for the Mean Green.
In contrast, Boise State likely won’t have the explosive plays, but it’s difficult to envision UNT’s rancid defense making the Broncos punt much.
I struggled with the side handicap. My numbers lean North Texas. And this game is being played very close to North Texas’ campus. But I’m concerned about UNT’s mindset after the Littrell firing, and I know the Mean Green won’t be able to stop BSU’s run game.
I’m not concerned by BSU’s mindset. Due to canceled bowl games and the COVID season, BSU has only played in one bowl game in four years. More than half of the roster has never played in one, period. And with numerous players on the roster from Texas – including QB Green – you’d figure the Broncos’ native Texans are looking to put on a show.
But BSU’s offense is far more one-dimensional, and their defense, despite its lofty rankings, has a troubling knack for allowing explosive gains that plays right into UNT’s hands.
Instead of rolling the dice on a side, I’m going to take the over. The point total has already come up three points since the opener, and I think that line movement is correct with a clear path for each offense to have success on its own respective terms.
The pick: Over 58
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