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Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: NFC East (2022)

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Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ’em.

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Team Expected Points For Expected Points Allowed Pythagorean Win Total Vegas Win Total
Dallas Cowboys 437 391.5 9.6 10.5
Philadelphia Eagles 407.75 377.25 9.3 9.5
Washington Commanders 371.25 388.75 8.0 7.5
New York Giants 355.5 400.5 7.3 7.5

 

Dallas Cowboys

  • The highest-scoring team from 2021 comes into 2022 with high expectations. On paper, a top n PFF graded offensive line with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Zeke Elliot should be poised for another top 5 offensive season. 
  • Vegas expects this team to take a small step back, likely from the loss of Amari Cooper. Dallas is expected to finish with 437 points; this number is top 7 across the league and 4th highest in the NFC. 
  • The Cowboys’ defensive unit was a top 10 in 2021, allowing 358 points, the 7th fewest.  The loss of Randy Gregory is expected to have a significant impact, given that the Cowboys are projected to be a very average defense, allowing 391.5 points, the 17th most. 

Bet: Dallas’ Pythagorean win expectation is set at just around 9.5, a full win lower than 10.5. I, too, have high expectations for this team, but given their abysmal offseason, I’ll lean under this total.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Jalen Hurts was one of the most exciting quarterbacks to watch in 2021. The Eagles impressed on offense, scoring 444 points. Many expect Jalen Hurts to take a massive leap forward in his third year, yet Vegas projects this team to score just 407.75 points, 36 points fewer. This is on top of the addition of all-star AJ Brown.
  • This unit is expected to remain average on defense, allowing eight fewer points than last season. 
  • Fortunately, the Eagles have the 2nd easiest strength of schedule. Though it’s a bit concerning that the team is expected to score fewer points, hopefully, it’s indicative of less explosive 4th quarters; the Eagles scored 8.6 points per game in the 4th quarter in 2022, the 6th most.
  • The team’s Pythagorean win total of 9.3 has me feeling like their win total of 9.5 is accurately priced.

Bet: Given their easy schedule and my lack of faith in Dallas, +185 for Philly to win the division has exceptional value.

New York Giants

  • My only hope for New York this season is that this team stays healthy. I want to see if Saquon is as talented and NFL-ready as he was promised to be back in 2017. Season after season since 2012, the Giants have disappointed. This team has averaged 6.1 wins despite a single winning season.
  • Fortunately, there are some high hopes for the Giants this season they’re expected to score an astounding 97.5 points more this season. Only the Jaguars are expected to see a larger improvement vs. last season.
  • Still, New York’s win total line and Pythagorean line are both sitting around 7.5, which doesn’t offer much value.

Bet: Given the Giants are favored in just five games, I think under 7.5 wins is the smart play. 

 Washington Commanders

  • The Commanders; potential outcome in 2022 depend entirely on Carson Wentz. If Wentz ever returns to his 2017 form, he could truly be an elite quarterback in the NFL. We’ve seen that it’s not likely to happen, and Vegas projections would agree. The Commanders are expected to score 50 fewer points this season, despite an” “upgrade” from Taylor Heinicke to Carson Wentz. They haven’t seen too many other changes to their offense.
  • Washington allowed the 8th most points in 2021. With a healthy Chase Young, this unit is projected to be a top half unit, allowing nearly 50 points less in 2022. 
  • The Pythagorean win total for Washington sits at 8 - a solid half win more than their line of 7.5.

Bet: If you’re a believer in Carson Wentz, this is an easy pick on the over. If you’re not -it’s one of the easiest bets to avoid.

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