Giants vs. Commanders: NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Prediction (Week 15)
The NFL has accomplished its mission of creating even more parody — and perhaps mediocrity — by expanding the playoffs to seven teams. And there’s no greater example of that is the Sunday night showdown between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants.
Neither of these teams is particularly impressive. Washington has turned its season around since turning to Taylor Heinicke under center. The Commanders have won six of eight and rank 17th in DVOA. The Giants are entirely dependent on Saquon Barkley offensively and have a defense that’s fallen off as of late. The G-men are heading in the opposite direction, as they’ve gone 1-4-1 after a 6-1 start. New York ranks 24th in DVOA.
Yet, thanks to the Seattle Seahawks losing Thursday night, both teams will remain in the playoffs regardless of Sunday’s outcome. This NFC East rematch is also unique because the teams just played to a 20-20 draw two weeks ago at MetLife Stadium. However, Washington is coming off a bye, while the Giants were drubbed by the Eagles last weekend.
So, which of these mediocre NFC rivals should we back Sunday night? Or should we back either side at all? Let’s break it down.
- Giants vs. Commanders: Sunday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets (Week 15)
- Giants vs. Commanders: NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 15)
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New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5) | Total 40.5
Giants season on brink of collapse
New York’s once-promising season is now getting more tenuous by the week. After a 6-1 start that was admittedly a little fluky, the Giants have hit a wall. Head coach Brian Daboll has done a masterful job winning games despite a horrendous set of offensive talent. But Daboll is struggling to find answers. During this six-game lull, New York has failed to top 22 points in a game.
It’s awfully hard to score points when your quarterback is Daniel Jones and your receiving corps doesn’t have a player with more than 38 receptions. In fact, Barkley is the team’s leading pass catcher with 42 grabs. New York’s lack of a legitimate threat on the outside has allowed teams to focus on stopping Barkley, and it’s worked.
The analytics still look somewhat fondly on this offense, though. New York ranks 14th in offensive DVOA, 10th in passing DVOA, and 14th in passing DVOA. That’s a testament to the job Daboll has done with his lackluster roster.
The real issue is New York’s defense, which ranks 29th in DVOA. And the struggles start in the trenches. The Giants rank 29th in adjusted line yards and have the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL. If defensive coordinator Wink Martindale’s blitzes don’t get home, then New York’s back end is even more exposed. Two weeks ago, New York allowed Washington to run for 4.6 yards per rush in the matchup.
New York is just 3-5-1 against NFC opponents with losses to Washington, Seattle, and Detroit, the teams battling them for a wild card berth. A loss to the Commanders wouldn’t ruin their playoff hopes, but it would make things a whole lot harder.
Commanders surging late again
Kudos to Ron Rivera. He seems to get this Commanders team playing their best at the right time. Washington started the season 2-4 and looked hapless offensively with Carson Wentz under center. Then, Rivera cut his losses and went back to Taylor Heinicke, who’s played a big role in Washington’s resurgence.
However, Washington’s recent wins have come against the following teams: Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Houston, and Atlanta. While the win over the Eagles was impressive, the Commanders haven’t played an overly difficult schedule.
The Commanders defense is its strength, as it ranks 9th in DVOA, 4th in rush defense DVOA, and 14th in pass defense DVOA. Washington has 34 sacks on the season and could get star Chase Young back from last year’s season-ending injury.
Offensively, Washington is still a relatively subpar unit, ranking 27th in DVOA. However, the Commanders succeeded against the Giants, putting up 411 yards. I’d expect the Commanders to rely on their ground game featuring Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson against a Giants front seven that’s gotten dominated most of the year.
Best Bet and Prediction
A couple of weeks ago, I had the under 40.5 and got lucky as the teams tied in overtime. Despite that lucky outcome, I believe points will be hard to come by again. Neither of these offenses is particularly good, and Washington’s defense should find a way to bottle up Barkley. Considering Washington had a bye week to prep, I’d lean with the Commanders if I had to bet on a side. But instead, I’ll bet on the total going under once more.
The pick: Under 40.5 (-115)
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