Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Among the early NFL games on Sunday afternoon is an NFC North Divisional clash between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Despite several elements of the NFL playoff picture still to be determined, this matchup will have no impact whatsoever. The Packers managed to clinch the number one seed in the NFC last week. As a result, many believe that numerous Green Bay players will have reduced roles in this meaningless regular-season finale. The NFL betting odds have come crashing down as a result of this sentiment. Nonetheless, the visitors remain a small favorite ahead of Sunday's matchup.

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Details

Opening Lines: Packers -11; O/U 46.5
Current Lines: Packers -3.5; O/U 44.5
Location: Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: FOX
Last Meeting: September 20, 2021 - The Packers defeated the Lions 35-17 in Green Bay.

Overview

The Packers steamrolled a Minnesota Vikings team that was without its starting QB last week. The win locked up the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs. With nothing to play for in Week 18, there is widespread speculation that several Green Bay players will either have a reduced role or sit out Sunday's game entirely. Thus far, coach Matt LaFleur has indicated that all players who are healthy will start like normal. However, the term "healthy" certainly has a high degree of variance in the sport of football. Furthermore, just because the Packers start their stud doesn't mean that they will play more than a handful of snaps.

Despite those comments, the NFL betting odds have moved heavily against Green Bay thus far. Will MVP frontrunner Aaron Rodgers play more than a single possession in Sunday's meaningless game? Only time will tell. What we do know is that the Packers' offense receives a massive downgrade with anyone other than Rodgers at quarterback. Backup Jordan Love has not proven to be an NFL-caliber QB, especially if top weapons like Davante Adams and Aaron Jones also are pulled early to avoid the risk of injury.

The Lions are destined to be among the top two picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. That being said, no one can deny the job that Dan Campbell and the coaching staff have done in keeping this team in the fight through yet another losing season. The possibility of earning one more win to close out the campaign is something that the Lions figure to get up for. One question that does need to be answered is whether or not Jared Goff will be available after missing each of the last two games. Considering that the Lions brought back star RB D'Andre Swift, albeit in a limited role, last week, one has to believe that limited practices for Goff so far this week bode well for his chances to play.

Whether it is Goff or Tim Boyle drawing another start, bettors can expect rookie wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown to be peppered with targets again. The younger brother of Green Bay's Equanimious St. Brown, Amon-Ra, has finished with at least eight receptions in each of the last five weeks. On defense, the Lions have been one of the worst teams in the league all season. However, even Detroit figures to be able to slow down an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers offense.

Trends

• Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.
• Five of the Packers' last six games have gone over the total.
• Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
• The total has gone under in 10 of the Lions' last 14 games.
• Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head matchups against the Packers at home.

Bottom Line

While the Packers have won five straight head-to-head meetings between these NFC North rivals on the scoreboard, the Lions have had a knack for getting the money. Detroit is 7-2 ATS over the last nine games in this series. The fluky line move actually fits those historical NFL betting trends perfectly. Of course, the 7.5-point adjustment from Packers -11 to -3.5 is entirely due to the expectation that Green Bay will rest key players for at least half of Sunday's game.

With so much uncertainty surrounding what exactly the Packers' game plan will be, this is a tough game to bet until closer to kickoff. The most likely scenario will be that Aaron Rodgers and the starters will play 2-3 offensive series before they are pulled. With this in mind, one potential NFL betting angle would be to take Green Bay to cover the first half-point spread.

As for a full-game pick, it's impossible not to side with the gritty Lions especially catching three with a hook. The last time Detroit played on their home field, they shocked the NFL betting world by dismantling the Arizona Cardinals. If you doubt Dan Campbell's ability to motivate his players, you had better reconsider that outlook. On top of that, the Lions' players love their coach too. Even if the Packers get out to a first-half lead courtesy of Rodgers and the starters, Detroit will never be out of it, thanks in part to a suspect Green Bay defense.

Pick: Lions +3.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.