Heat vs. Celtics NBA Playoff Series: Mike Randle’s Best Bets (2022)

And then there were two.

A fascinating Eastern Conference playoffs have been whittled down to two remaining teams:  No. 1 seeded Miami and No. 2 seeded Boston. It is fair to wonder if the Celtics’ indifference to playing the Nets in the first round was the key variable in getting past the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. Boston ended the Bucks season with Game 7 at home in the TD Garden behind a barrage of three-pointers. Boston shot 22 of 55 (40%) from beyond the arc while holding Milwaukee to just 12.1% (4 of 33) from deep.

The Celtics will now face a refreshed and replenished Miami Heat team that disposed of Philadephia on its home court in six games. The 76ers dominant center Joel Embiid valiantly played through multiple injuries, but the balance and depth of Miami were too much for Philadelphia to overcome. After five days off between series, the Heat hosts Boston at home.

Oddsmakers have this as a very even series featuring two strong defensive teams anchored by stars. With Miami’s Kyle Lowry and Boston’s Robert Williams battling injuries, each team enters the conference finals at less than full strength. The Celtics won two of the three regular-season meetings, but the Heat won the last matchup in Boston, 106-98.

Here are my best bets for an evenly-matched Eastern Conference Finals between two fantastic teams.

Best Bets for Heat vs. Celtics

Jimmy Butler Series Leader [Points] (+250 DraftKings)

If you believe Miami will win this series (which I do), it is tethered to “Big Game Jimmy.”  Butler is at his best in the playoffs and has been his career-best in these playoffs. In the 10 games he has played in this postseason, Butler averages 28.7 PPG, 7.6 RPA, and 5.4 APG while carrying shooting percentages of 52.5% FG, 36.4% 3P, and 80.8% from the free-throw line. When the Heat reached the NBA Finals in 2019-2020 against the Lakers, Butler was again superb averaging 22.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 6.1 APG over 21 playoff battles.

Against Boston this season, Butler averaged 22 PPG while shooting just 62,5% from the foul line. While Boston has a strong defense, they excel at limiting three-point opportunities, especially on the road. The Celtics allowed opponents to shoot just 33.1% from deep on the road, first overall in the league. However, Butler generates most of his points on drives and pull-up jumpers inside the arc. Butler made just 27 three-pointers all season, accounting for just 6.7% of his points this season.

Boston’s Jayson Tatum is the overwhelming favorite at -245, but the Celtics leader has only averaged 17.7 PPG against the stingy Miami defense this season. If the Heat wins this series, Butler has an excellent chance of cashing this ticket at fantastic odds.

Jayson Tatum Series Leader [3s Made] (-170 DraftKings)

I hate making bets and laying this much juice, but anything under -200 is a great price for Jayson Tatum to lead the series in three-pointers. Against Milwaukee, Tatum averaged 10 three-point attempts per game. The only player on Miami to average more than 5.0 three-point attempts per game in the postseason is Max Strus (8.5). However, Strus is averaging just 29.8 minutes per game due to a deep Miami guard rotation that includes Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, and Kyle Lowry (when healthy). Strus made 17 three-pointers in six games against Philadelphia, a significantly worse defensive team than Boston. Tatum made 26 threes in seven games against Milwaukee, including his worst playoff performance with just 10 points and 0-6 from three-point range.

The other options just don’t have Tatum’s consistency or playing time to justify a wager. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are too volatile, and Herro doesn’t shoot enough from deep to threaten Tatum, even at +1100.

I don’t know how this is still listed under -200. I grabbed it immediately and will only be concerned that an injury derails this bet.

Series Winner Miami Heat (+155 DraftKings)

Miami is being disrespected as the No. 1 overall seed, especially with a considerable rest advantage entering Game 1.

The injury to Robert Williams is an underrated storyline that could open up the middle for Miami center Bam Adebayo. Milwaukee didn’t have a post presence like Adebayo that would test the interior defense of the Celtics. With Miami’s bevy of three-point shooters, the Heat have the personnel to frustrate even the great defense schemes of Boston head coach Ime Udoka. It’s all about the matchups, and if Kyle Lowry can return for Miami later in the series, the Heat would hold an even bigger depth advantage over the Celtics.

Boston was very impressive in their series against Milwaukee, but would they have won if Khris Middleton wasn’t injured? I’ll take Miami with home-court advantage as the No. 1 seed and a betting underdog to advance to the NBA Finals.

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