Heat vs. Nuggets: 2023 NBA Finals Bets, Picks & Predictions

On Thursday night, the main event gets started, the NBA Finals. The Denver Nuggets come into this series as heavy favorites after taking care of the Western Conference with relative ease. The Miami Heat, on the other hand, have gone on an improbable run as the eight seed taking care of business against some of the powerhouses of the Eastern Conference. Don’t let the seeds of these teams fool you; this will be a competitive series.

There is no love lost between these teams. A massive brawl last season ended with a Nikola Jokic suspension and nearly ended Markieff Morris’s career. Although it helps, neither of these teams need the extra motivation with a Larry O’Brien trophy on the line. This should be another memorable NBA Finals, so let’s dig into the matchup to find some betting angles.

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Heat vs. Nuggets: 2023 NBA Finals Bets, Picks & Predictions

Denver Nuggets

After falling short the last few years, the Nuggets stuck with their core and head coach, which has paid dividends. A frenetic run through the Western Conference saw them take care of the Timberwolves in five games, the Suns in six, and the Lakers in four. Nikola Jokic is putting up numbers we haven’t seen in the playoffs since Wilt Chamberlain. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray has emerged as the perfect complement. He led all players in scoring in a Western Conference Finals that featured three future Hall of Famers. They have their eyes set on bringing home the first NBA title to Denver.

This is a team that isn’t afraid to play slow. Their top-ranked offense per eFG% allows them to scorch the nets even though they play at a bottom-third pace in the league, ranking 21st. They move the ball around really well, posting the second-best assist rate in the league this season. At any given moment, all five players on the floor are a threat to shoot, dribble, or pass. This is what has made them so dangerous all season.

The Denver Nuggets might not have the general appeal of the Los Angeles Lakers or the Golden State Warriors, but this team is one of the most fun-to-watch teams in the league. If you’re a fan of free-flowing, efficient offensive basketball, this team is a textbook example. They will have their work cut out for them against one of the grittiest teams we’ve seen in recent NBA seasons, but Denver is rightfully favored to win their first NBA Championship. 

Miami Heat

What can be said about this Miami Heat team that hasn’t already been said? After stunning the Milwaukee Bucks in five games and taking care of New York in six, the Heat built a 3-0 lead on Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals before allowing the Celtics to claw back, forcing a Game 7. The Heat took advantage of a dreadful shooting performance by the Celtics on Monday night to win Game 7 and advance to their seventh NBA Finals in 18 years.

Although Jimmy Butler did a lot of heavy lifting in the first two series, it was the unsung, undrafted heroes that made the difference in the Eastern Conference Finals. The foursome of Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson averaged 53.7 PPG in the series, with Martin nearly edging Jimmy Butler out for Eastern Conference Finals MVP. They’ve done an incredible job picking up the load from injury losses to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Their contributions will be relied on heavily again with difficult matchups for Butler and Bam Adebayo against Denver.

The Heat continue to prove the doubters wrong. Do they have one more fight in them, or will their Cinderella run fall short? If we’ve learned anything over the last few weeks of the playoffs, it’s to never count this group out.

Season Series

These teams met up twice during the regular season due to the NBA’s inter-conference scheduling. Although Denver won both meetings, they were close matchups that came down to the wire. Nikola Jokic led the way for the Nuggets in both games, averaging a triple-double in the two contests. Although Tyler Herro was the leading scorer for Miami in the first meeting, he did not play in the second meeting, which could be a better precursor for what to expect.

The Nuggets lit up the nets during the two matchups to the tune of a 58.6% field goal percentage. They set up these good looks on a 76.4% assist rate, which was nearly 10% higher than their regular season average. Miami gave up the fourth-highest assist rate in the league defensively, so it’s not unreasonable to expect that trend to continue. 

Miami made these games close by getting to the free throw line and making the free throws when they got there. Denver was top 10 in defensive free throw rate during the regular season and have done a decent job continuing that during the playoffs, so this may just be an outlier performance. Regardless, the Heat have shown all playoffs long that the numbers don’t tell the entire story. No matter how the gamescript goes, they can adapt and thrive.

Series Prediction

Miami has put their opponents’ offenses into fits with some of the zone defenses they’ve thrown out. It’s helped them put together a .325 opponent 3P% during the playoffs, even against two of the top 10 3P% teams in the league. Couple this with incredibly clutch shooting performances themselves, and it’s hard to see this series going less than six games. 

Caleb Martin thrived in the role typically reserved for Tyler Herro in the Heat offense during the Eastern Conference Finals. With Gabe Vincent seemingly still a little banged up from the ankle injury that had him miss Game 5, I expect Martin to continue to play a big role and fill in again for Herro, who thrived in his matchup with Denver during the regular season.

Finally, it’s tough to come back after a Game 7 win and bring that same energy to the next series. We saw that with Boston, who dug themselves into a 3-0 hole after going the distance with Philadelphia. The wear and tear it puts on these players’ bodies is real. After playing seven straight games around sea level, flying out to the altitude of Denver will be exhausting. I think Denver wins Game 1 easily and eventually is crowned NBA Champions.

Best Bets

Miami Series Spread +2.5 (-145) DK
Caleb Martin o2.2 3PM/G (-110) DK
Denver to Win Game 1/Denver to Win Series (-230) DK

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