Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina College Football Best Bets & Predictions (Wednesday)
Check out Thor Nystrom’s best bets for this week’s college football bowl games. And here’s a closer look at the Holiday Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 25): 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%)
2022 combined: 96-70-4 ATS (57.8%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina College Football 2022 Best Bets & Predictions
Wednesday, December 28 | 7:00 PM
Oregon (-14.5) vs. North Carolina | Total: 73.5
ATL: Oregon -15.2 | ATT: 82
Oregon
- QB Jay Butterfield (Transfer portal)
- RB Byron Cardwell (Transfer portal)
- RB Sean Dollars (Transfer portal)
- WR Seven McGee (Transfer portal)
- WR Dont’e Thornton (Transfer portal)
- TE Terrell Tilmon (Transfer portal)
- OT Bram Walden (Transfer portal)
- OT Dawson Jaramillo (Transfer portal)
- DE Bradyn Swinson (Transfer portal)
- LB Noah Sewell (Opt-out)
- LB Justin Flowe (Transfer portal)
- LB Jackson LaDuke (Transfer portal)
- LB Adrian Jackson (Transfer portal)
- CB Christian Gonzalez (Opt-out)
Oregon QB Bo Nix confirmed he will play in the bowl, and also that he’s returning next season, both crucial developments for the Ducks.
LB Flowe and WR Thornton were former ballyhooed recruits who played rotational roles. Thornton was relied upon more down the stretch – it’s possible his enormous catch radius could be missed against what will be a rancid UNC secondary. Flowe is off to Arizona, while Thornton’s fellow rotational WR McGee chose to transfer to FCS Jackson State.
RB Cardwell was hurt most of the season and Oregon managed to have one of the nation’s most dangerous rushing offenses anyway. RB Dollars functioned as RB3. TE Tilmon and OTs Jaramillo and Walden barely played.
LB Noah Sewell, a five-star recruit and three-year starter, declared for the NFL draft and opted out. Sewell posted 215 tackles, 20.5 TFL and 7.5 sacks over 33 career games.
CB Gonazalez was a standout starter and All-Conference performer. Gonzalez, who posted a sterling 81.2 PFF grade during the fall, was the team’s most valuable defender. He finished the 2022 regular season with four interceptions and seven pass breakups.
North Carolina
- QB Jacoby Criswell (Transfer portal)
- RB Devon Lawrence (Transfer portal)
- RB Caleb Hood (Injury)
- RB British Brooks (Injury)
- WR Josh Downs (Opt-out)
- DT Jahlil Taylor (Transfer portal)
- DT Keeshawn Silver (Transfer portal)
- DGE Chris Collins (Transfer portal)
- LB Raneiria Dillworth (Transfer portal)
- LB Sebastian Cheeks (Injury)
- LB Noah Taylor (Injury)
- CB Tony Grimes (Transfer portal)
- CB Storm Duck (Transfer portal)
- CB Dontae Balfour (Transfer portal)
- S Cam’Ron Kelly (Transfer portal)
- K Jonathan Kim (Transfer portal)
QB Drake Maye announced he would return to UNC next season – he’ll start. Maye was the ACC Player of the Year, ACC Offensive Player of the Year, ACC Rookie of the Year and ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Unfortunately, his top target, WR Downs, declared for the NFL Draft and opted out. Downs, a first-team All-ACC selection and second-team All-American is one of the best receivers in America – he recorded 94 catches and 11 TD in 2022. His absence hurts. Though it could be argued it’s in some ways canceled out by Oregon’s loss of CB Gonzalez.
RB Brooks, a projected potential starter in the preseason, was knocked out before the campaign with a knee injury. RB Hood is questionable with an undisclosed injury. LB Cheeks, who barely played, is out for the year with a shoulder injury.
EDGE Collins finished No. 13 on the defense in snaps, but PFF panned his work – he has transferred to Minnesota. LB Taylor, indisputably one of the defense’s top-three defenders through the first eight games, saw his season end with a lower-body injury in late October.
UNC’s secondary was ravaged by defections – CB Grimes, CB Duck, and S Kelly were all starters. This is not good news for an awful-as-was Tar Heels defense. CB Ladaeson DeAndre Hollins, who entered the portal but pulled out to return, figures to see a ton of playing time in the bowl.
K Kim was the team’s kickoff specialist.
Coaching News
Both teams will be without their offensive play-callers. Oregon OC Kenny Dillingham took Arizona State’s HC job. The Ducks have tabbed offensive assistants Junior Adams and Drew Mehringer play-callers for this game.
UNC OC Phil Longo left to become Luke Fickell’s new OC at Wisconsin. UNC OL coach Jack Bicknell Jr. followed Longo to Wisconsin. HC Mack Brown named WR coach Lonnie Galloway passing-game coordinator and TE coach John Lilly running-game coordinator for the bowl game.
Handicap
Do you like points? You’re going to see plenty.
Both teams had top-15 SP+ offenses in the fall – and both star starting quarterbacks will play in this game.
The defenses – stinky as is – will be even worse for this bowl. UNC’s No. 106 defense got absolutely ravaged by defections, particularly in the secondary. You wouldn’t think the backups could be much worse, but they’ll figure to test that theory.
Oregon’s No. 65 defense, meanwhile, will be missing its lockdown CB Gonalzez. While UNC QB Drake Maye won’t have WR Josh Downs to work with, UNC is deep at receiver and Maye is as gifted a younger thrower as there is in the country.
I can’t make a referendum on the side handicap. My adjusted line is sitting right around the Vegas line – and too many factors could swing it one way or the other. For instance a late backdoor UNC cover.
Instead, we’re taking the easy way out and going with the over – my system has an absurd 82-point total on this game. We think the final score could be an inflation-rate version of the Oregon-UCLA game, a 45-30 Ducks win. We’ll call it 49-34 Oregon.
The pick: Over 73.5
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