It was a weekend to remember for Justin Thomas (+1900) at the Players Championship. Thomas (featured in last week’s article) tied a 36-hole record at the tournament to mount a thrilling come-from-behind win. He finished the week with rounds of 64 and 68 (12-under-par) to win his first-ever Players Championship title. For back-to-back weeks, Lee Westwood and Bryson DeChambeau were in the final pairing on Sunday, something that hasn’t happened since 2007.
The Florida swing comes to a close this week as the Tour will now head to Palm Beach Gardens for the Honda Classic. Although the Champion Course at PGA National is a shorter track, it consistently plays as one of Tour’s most difficult. PGA National has ranked inside the top-five in difficulty over the past few years. With this tournament falling in between the Players Championship and the WGC-Match Play next week, the field strength takes a hit as players have opted to take the week off.
The winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Daniel Berger (+1100), is the betting favorite heading into the week. Defending champions Sungjae Im (+1300), Joaquin Niemann (+2000), Lee Westwood (+2200), and Shane Lowry round out the top-five. In 2020, there were only 18 players to finish this event under-par. With wind expecting to be a big factor this week, we can expect plenty of big numbers as there are already a plethora of water hazards to navigate around. Accuracy off the tee and bogey avoidance will be crucial for golfers to make the cut and put themselves in a solid position to make a run on the weekend.
Previous Winners
- 2020: Sungjae Im (-8)
- 2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
- 2018: Justin Thomas (-8)
- 2017: Rickie Fowler (-12)
- 2016: Adam Scott (-9)
Course Preview
Golfers will be teeing it up at PGA National Golf Club, National Course, in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. This course usually plays as one of the most difficult on Tour. It is a Par 70 track that measures 7,140 yards long. Many factors contribute to the difficult scoring conditions at PGA National Golf Club. For one, the wind is usually very challenging for golfers. Adding to the trouble are the numerous water hazards and sand traps that come into play. PGA National is known for the famous “Bear Trap,” the stretch between holes 15 and 17 is one of the most challenging sets of holes in golf. The cut line has been +1 or higher in each of the last six events.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Driving Accuracy
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 4 scoring
- Putting on Bermuda greens
Outright Betting Picks
Daniel Berger (+1100 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
After some sensational play this season, Berger has jumped up to number 15 in the Official World Golf Ranking. In just 10 starts, the 27-year-old has four top-10s, including a win at Pebble Beach in February. The Florida native is awfully comfortable playing at PGA National, as he finished T4 here in 2019 and T2 in 2015. Berger is coming off of a nice week at the Players Championship with a T9 finish. He finished the week with a five-under-par round of 67. I like Berger to keep the momentum rolling in his home state.
Shane Lowry (+2900 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lowry makes a lot of sense, with scoring conditions expected to be even more difficult due to high winds this week. The Irishman played well in Florida last week with an eighth-place finish at the Players Championship. He gained strokes in all five stat categories, a good sign that his all-around game is up for a good challenge this week at PGA National. Lowry had a respectable T21 finish at this event last year and has made three of three cuts at the Honda.
Long Shot Betting Picks
Matt Wallace (+6600 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a nice number for Wallace, who thrives on difficult courses. When sorting all golfers on courses where scoring is difficult relative to par, Wallace ranks fifth. The Englishman was last seen at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he placed T18. He placed T7 at a stacked field in the Abu Dhabi Championship in January on the European Tour. He is the perfect “grind it out” golfer who can score well in tough conditions and will look to improve upon his T20 finish here in 2019.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (+7500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lee is worth the flier as he has both excellent course history and strong recent form. The Korean has made the cut in consecutive years here with finishes of T7 andT38. If you can recall, he was runner-up to Brooks Koepka at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February. Lee was 34th on Tour in driving accuracy in 2020, so he should have little trouble navigating around all the water hazards if his driver is dialed in.
Other Betting Picks
Russell Henley - Top-10 Finish (+400 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Henley ranks extremely high in my personal model this week. First in Par 4 scoring, second in bogey avoidance, and fifth in strokes gained: approach, Henley is playing some very underrated golf this season. It’s no surprise to see Henley has had great success at PGA National. He won here in 2014 and has since had high finishes of T8 and T20.
J.T. Poston Top-10 Finish (+650 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
In an extremely stacked Players Championship field last week, Poston impressed with a T22 showing. He already has five top-25 finishes in 14 events in 2020/21. With scoring conditions expected to be very difficult, putting is going to be extremely important this week. Poston rolls it as well as anyone. In 2021, He currently ranks sixth in strokes gained: putting. I like him to improve upon his T35 showing at this event in 2020.
Event Plays
- Cameron Davis over Ryan Moore (-129 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Talor Gooch over Cameron Tringale (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Chez Reavie over Jhonathan Vegas (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Special Offer: Bet $4, Win $250 if Bryson DeChambeau Makes the Top 5 >>
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.
