Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick (2021)
It’s been a dumpster fire in Houston this season, to put it mildly, as the offseason loss of Deshaun Watson left the team in a free fall since. For the 49ers, once left for dead, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has led this team to five wins over their past seven and is firmly in a position to secure a playoff spot with a win here.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value lies in this one.
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Details
- Opening Line: 49ers -15, O/U 45
- Current Line: 49ers -12.5, O/U 44
- Last meeting: December 10, 2017, 49ers 26, Texans 16
Overview
Picking up a win in their first game of the season (vs. the Jaguars), the Texans proceeded to lose eight games straight with their next win coming on November 21st vs. the Titans. At the quarterback position, it’s been a mix of Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor, as Mills has largely taken the reigns down the stretch to mixed results.
Through 15 games, the Texans rank dead last in total yards and rushing yards per game, as they’ve struggled to just 16.5 points per game.
For the 49ers, Garoppolo came into this season with many expecting it to be his last, as the future was supposedly drafted in the form of first-round pick Trey Lance. While Jimmy G not only beat out Lance, he’s had guided this once down-and-out team to playoff positioning.
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Trends
- Under is 5-1 in Texans L6 as a road underdog
- Under is 4-1 in Texans L5 following an ATS win
- 49ers are 5-0 ATS in L5 games in January
Bottom Line
While Jimmy G certainly deserves a lot of credit for the 49er’s resurgence, their defense can’t be overlooked. Allowing 22.3 points per game, the 49ers are allowing just 318.9 yards per game and has turned into one of the best units in the NFC.
They’ve also established quite the rushing attack behind running back Elijah Mitchell, as the team comes into this one averaging 123.7 yards per game.
Despite Lance likely getting the start in this one with Jimmy G’s thumb injured, expect the playoff-bound 49ers to roll late.
Pick: 49ers -12.5
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