Houston vs. Duke NCAA Tournament Predictions (Final Four)
For the first time since 2008, all No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four.
There were no Cinderellas this year. Upsets were rare. But this Final Four should be some of the best college basketball we’ll ever watch.
Ultimately, we’ve got the four best teams in the Final Four. You can’t ask for anything more than that.
Below, I’ll discuss my thoughts on the Final Four game Houston vs. Duke.
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NCAA Tournament Final Four Predictions: Houston vs. Duke
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston vs. Duke
The Houston Cougars have won 17 consecutive games and haven’t lost once since December began. However, this team continues to be doubted. According to KenPom, the Houston Cougars have the best defense in the nation. The Cougars have limited teams to a 44.8% effective field goal percentage, giving up only 30.1% from deep and 44.5% from inside the arc.
While Houston fouls at a higher rate, Duke hasn’t earned foul shots at a super high and consistent rate this season. Houston could be one of the only defenses that could slow Duke down. After all, Duke has earned 34.1% of offensive rebounds, but Houston has allowed only 28.7% of offensive rebounds per game. Houston likely limits the Blue Devils to below their season points per game average.
On the other hand, the Blue Devils have limited teams to an even better 44.4% effective field goal percentage. Houston will struggle inside, especially since Duke has allowed only 43.3% from inside the arc this season. Don’t expect the Cougars to be aggressive and get to the foul line. However, Houston should end up with more offensive rebounds and second chances. While Duke has limited opponents to 26.7% of offensive rebounds, Houston has earned nearly 37% of offensive rebounds.
Beyond that, Duke typically forces teams to use 19 seconds per possession, which wears out the opposition. But that won’t be the case for Houston. The Cougars are used to playing slow on offense and are also very efficient.
That favors Houston. Give me Houston +5.5.
Pick: Houston +5.5 (+100)