Indiana vs. Saint Mary’s Odds, Spread, Pick & Predictions for 2022 NCAA Tournament

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Indiana Hoosiers vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels Game Info

Indiana Hoosiers (21-13, 9-11 Big 10) vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels (25-7, 12-3 West Coast)

• Date: Thursday, Mar. 17, 2022
• Start Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
• Location: Moda Center - Portland, OR
• Coverage: TBS

Indiana vs. Saint Mary’s Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

• Moneyline: IND (+130) | SMC: (-150)
• Point Spread: IND: +3 (-110) | SMC: -3 (-110)
• Total: 126.5 - Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Betting Trends

• Indiana 2021-22 Betting Trends: 16-14 ATS; 13-15-1 to the Over
• Saint Mary’s 2021-22 Betting Trends: 18-9-2 ATS; 13-15-1 to the Over
• Saint Mary’s are 3-1 in their last five games against the spread
• Since 2001, No. 5 seeds like Saint Mary’s are 47-33 against No. 12 seeds like Indiana in the First Round
• No. 12 seeds have the better record against the spread in those March Madness games, going 45-33-2 ATS

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Overview

Here we are, the classic 5-12 matchup. For years this has been the target of many who tout upsets as we have seen many 12 seeds fall in recent history. However, this is not your regular 5-12 matchup. It is actually reversed when you look at it from a conference perspective. The Big 10 semifinalist, Indiana, had to win a play-in game to get to this point. On the other hand, Saint Mary’s earned an at-large big after a very impressive campaign where they earned non-conference victories and even toppled Gonzaga once. Despite the resume, Indiana will be a popular pick for those with brackets as they have name value and momentum, but the Gaels are out to buck the upset trend.

Indiana Hoosier’s Betting Preview

The Hoosiers are a team that has looked to hit its stride at the right time. During conference play, they went through a rough patch, but the numbers show that this team was always playing much better than their record portrayed. It all starts on the defensive end of the floor for Indiana. They were the best defense in the Big 10 in terms of defensive efficiency and are also stout by national standards. Indiana is 26th in effective field goal percentage allowed, ninth in two-point percentage, and 15th in block percentage. That high block rate is due to the work of their star Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Davis is not just an imposing rim protector. He is one of the most skilled offensive bigs in the country. He enters the tournament averaging 18 points and eight rebounds per game. Davis is the key to Indiana’s success. If they are going to pull off the upset, he will have to play tremendously.

Saint Mary’s Gaels Betting Preview

I highlighted just how impressive the Hoosiers are on the defensive end, but the Gaels are even better. Saint Mary’s is ninth in defensive efficiency nationally and was number one in the West Coast Conference in turnover percentage. Their defense feeds into the sluggish tempo that they like to establish. The Gaels are 327th in tempo. For those unfamiliar, think of Saint Mary’s like the west coast version of Virginia.

However, they are very similar to the Hoosiers as they have the stout defense, but they also have the dominant big man as well. Matthias Tass is the Gaels’ leading scorer and rebounder. The senior big man is a skilled physical presence on the low block and is more than capable of matching up with Davis. Watching those two go back and forth will be a treat. Though, what separates Saint Mary’s offensively, is that they have one more key contributor, Tommy Kuhse. Kuhse has the floor stretch for the slow-paced Gaels. In addition, he presents an impeccable shooting touch from behind the arc as he has made nearly 47 percent of his threes this season.

Indiana vs. Saint Mary’s Betting Pick and Prediction

The matchup between Davis and Tass will be fun to watch, but it may very well decide the game. Indiana is very reliant on Davis to lead the offense, and Tass has the size and ability to limit him. Another factor to worry about with Davis is foul trouble. The Hoosiers have no consistent second-scoring option if he has to sit out with foul trouble. As I mentioned, the Gaels do. Khuse’s outside shooting could be prominent as Indiana is 121st in three-point percentage allowed. In the end, this matchup may be tight, but the Gaels can get the job done.

Pick: Saint Mary’s ML -150 (-110 at DraftKings)

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