Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds & Game Picks (2021)
The NFL has given us an extra Christmas present this year, as the league will cap a Christmas Day doubleheader with what should be a great matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals.
The Colts are a freight train right now, having won seven of nine after starting the season 1-4. On the other hand, the Cardinals just got run over by the lowly Detroit Lions a week after losing a critical divisional game to the Los Angeles Rams.
Will the Jonathan Taylor show propel Indy to another victory, or is this the time to buy low on Arizona? Let’s break this Christmas matchup down.
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Details
- Opening line: Arizona -2
- Current line: Arizona -1
- Total: 49
Can the Colts keep rolling?
Sitting at 1-4, the Indianapolis Colts were left for dead in mid-October. Fast forward two months, and now Indianapolis is one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
Jonathan Taylor’s emergence has been the main catalyst behind Indianapolis’ rejuvenation. Taylor leads the league in rushing with 1,518 yards, nearly 500 more than No. 2 rusher Joe Mixon. And while Taylor has proven to be a spectacular player, he’s benefitted from running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Indianapolis ranks fifth in adjusted line yards.
It’s no surprise that Indianapolis ranks 10th in offensive DVOA. But that’s mainly thanks to a run game that ranks first in the league in DVOA. Indianapolis’ passing game leaves much to be desired, however. The Colts rank 20th in passing DVOA, and coach Frank Reich clearly doesn’t trust quarterback Carson Wentz very much.
Last week against New England, Wentz attempted just 12 passes, completing five for 49 yards. Despite only a few attempts, Wentz still found a way to throw an excruciating interception.
That’s the story with Wentz. Even in limited opportunities, he finds ways to make bad decisions.
While Indianapolis deserves credit for fending off New England, the win comes with a grain of salt. The Colts were out-gained, 365-275, and had five fewer first downs. If not for a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and two interceptions from Mac Jones, this could’ve been an entirely different result.
Defensively, Indianapolis has gotten better as the year has gone on. They now rank 8th in overall DVOA and are third against the run. Indy can be exploited against the pass, however. This season, the Colts have generated pressure on just 18.6% of their opponents’ dropbacks and have an adjusted sack rate of just 5.7%.
And while Indy has been good against the run, they haven’t been great against mobile quarterbacks. The Colts have given up 275 rushing yards to opposing QBs this year. Giving Kyler Murray time and opportunities to run could result in a recipe for disaster.
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Are the Cardinals collapsing again?
We’ve seen this movie with the Arizona Cardinals before. Just last season, Arizona was 5-2 at Halloween before going 3-6 down the stretch, losing out on a playoff spot. Kyler Murray was hurt, and Kliff Kingsbury couldn’t fix his broken offense.
The same story seems to be transpiring before our eyes. Arizona sat at 7-0 at Halloween and has gone 3-4 since. Murray was banged up, and Arizona’s offense looks broken yet again.
The Cardinals clearly didn’t show up for last week’s game against the Detroit Lions. They dug themselves a 17-0 first-half hole and could not dig out of it. However, a deeper look at the box score suggests Arizona might’ve been a bit unlucky too.
The Cardinals out-gained Detroit 398-338. But penalties and red zone efficiency made the difference. Arizona committed seven penalties, four of which resulted in first downs for Detroit. The Cardinals also went 0-for-4 in the red zone. While red zone efficiency isn’t entirely predicated on luck, positive regression could be in store in that department. As for the penalties, I’d expect Arizona to clean things up after last week’s wake-up call.
Arizona’s offense is regressing, however. The Cardinals now rank 17th in offensive DVOA, and their passing game clearly isn’t the same without DeAndre Hopkins. Murray hasn’t been great either and has thrown for just one touchdown and three interceptions in his last two outings.
Defensively, Arizona remains stout. The Cards rank fifth in defensive DVOA and are top 10 against the run and pass. The Cardinals rank just 17th in defensive adjusted line yards but are tied for the sixth-most sacks in the NFL. The battle in the trenches between Arizona’s front four and Indianapolis’ offensive line will be the match-up to watch.
Bottom Line
This should be a fantastic game, and I’m taking what looks to be a good buy-low opportunity on Arizona. Backing Kliff Kingsbury as even a short favorite is always a huge risk, but I love this spot for his team.
Arizona is coming off an embarrassing loss to Detroit, and their sentiment is as low as it’s been all season. Meanwhile, everyone is in love with Indianapolis after they held on to beat the Patriots.
I’m expecting a maximum effort from the Cardinals at home, while Indianapolis may come out a bit flat after beating the Patriots for the first time since 2009. I also expect a better effort from Murray against a Colts defense that doesn’t generate much pressure and has struggled against mobile QBs before.
Taylor will undoubtedly get his for Indianapolis. That’s practically inevitable at this point. But I suspect Arizona will generate enough pressure to fluster Wentz and force bad decisions, hopefully resulting in takeaways.
Sometimes you have to zig when everyone else zags when betting the NFL. It’s uncomfortable, but it tends to be profitable. I’m doing the unfathomable and backing the Cardinals for all of these reasons. Keep an eye on this line, though, as I could see Arizona closing as an underdog.
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