Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick (2021)

For the second time this season, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are set to collide this Sunday afternoon. The AFC South Division rivals both enter Week 13 on the heels of a loss, however the recent trends and future outlook for the two teams going forward this season are virtually polar opposites. The lopsided power ratings of the two sides are clearly reflected in the betting odds. After opening the visitors as a touchdown favorite, oddsmakers and the market have bumped the spread up to double-digits ahead of this divisional matchup.

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Details

Opening Lines: Colts -7; O/U 47
Current Lines: Colts -10; O/U 45.5
Location: NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: October 17, 2021 - The Colts defeated the Texans 31-3 in Indianapolis.

Overview

The Colts dropped a seven-point game to the defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday, snapping a three-game winning streak. Indianapolis still impressed even in defeat, particularly on offense against the stout Bucs' defense. It was strength-on-strength in the matchup between Jonathan Taylor and the Colts' ground game against the Buccaneers' run defense. Taylor still averaged over five yards per carry while quarterback Carson Wentz also had one of his most productive games on the season to date. If the Colts can pair a consistent aerial attack with their already nasty run game, they'll be tough to stop offensively. 

One thing that Wentz certainly has in his favor is a greater variety of pass-catchers than what was available earlier in the year. In addition to T.Y. Hilton returning from his latest injury, tight end Jack Doyle is suddenly reemerging as a receiving threat. Where Indianapolis struggled in last week's game was on defense. A unit that ranked first in adjusted efficiency against the run coming in allowed a big game to Leonard Fournette. That said, the Colts figure to have a much easier go of it in Sunday's NFL betting matchup against the league's worst scoring offense. 

After shocking the first place Tennessee Titans on the road, the Texans failed to string together back-to-back wins as they lost to the New York Jets last weekend. Houston took a 14-11 lead into the locker room at halftime last week but failed to score again over the final 30 minutes of play. It was a pathetic offensive display, something that Texans fans have had to endure plenty of this season. It was also very surprising given how awful the Jets defense is and the fact that Tyrod Taylor is back under center for Houston. That fact alone makes this second NFL betting matchup against the Colts different from the first. Taylor is clearly an upgrade over Davis Mills.

After cutting Phillip Lindsay, the Texans have resorted to a backfield tandem that features David Johnson and Rex Burkhead. The former, however, was a nonparticipant at practice this week with an injury and illness. Given the stout Indianapolis run defense, Sunday's game might be a big Burkhead usage situation regardless as the Texans will undoubtedly struggle on the ground. Other than Brandin Cooks, Taylor has very few reliable pass-catchers to throw to. Defensively, the Texans have actually jumped all the way up to eighth in the NFL in terms of adjusted efficiency. Their clear weakness is stopping the run, something that could spell major trouble against the Colts.

Trends

• Colts are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. 
• Seven of the Colts' last eight road games have gone over the total.
• Texans are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• The total has gone under in five of the Texans' last six games.
• Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven head-to-head matchups against the Texans.

Bottom Line

While one has to believe that the Texans can be more competitive on Sunday than they were in the first meeting against the Colts, an outright upset is certainly a longshot. The NFL betting market has moved heavily in Indianapolis' favor ahead of this contest. After opening as a seven-point road favorite, the Colts are now laying double-digits. In addition to winning six of the last seven head-to-head meetings, Indy has also covered six of seven-point spreads during that span. Even in years past when the Texans were a more capable outfit, the Colts have still had their number. It's really difficult to get excited about backing Houston, even with Tyrod Taylor back and a 10-point line. 

Instead, bettors would be wise to consider playing under the total of 45.5 for this AFC South battle. While Houston should be good for more than three points on Sunday with Taylor starting instead of Davis Mills, both teams sport top-12 adjusted defenses coming in. Six of the last seven head-to-head meetings have stayed under the number. Jonathan Taylor should have little trouble against Houston's horrible run defense, but more run plays will help shorten the game clock as well. After last week's brutal showing, trusting the Texans' offense to score more than 14 points is impossible.

Pick: Under 45.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.