Iowa vs. Auburn: 2023 NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Picks

March Madness is officially here! The 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at the early odds, preview, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 game: Iowa vs. Auburn.

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2023 March Madness Odds, Preview & Predictions: Iowa vs. Auburn

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Iowa vs. Auburn Odds, Spread & Match Up Overview

• Iowa Spread: +1
• Auburn Spread: -1
• Iowa Moneyline: +100
• Auburn Moneyline: -120
• Game Over/Under: 153.5

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Iowa 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

Forever an offensively based team, Iowa is making yet another tournament appearance under Fran McCaffery. Kris Murray has done a solid job of filling his brother’s shoes, with Filip Rebraca and Tony Perkins being solid role players this year in Iowa’s top-five offense. But McCaffery has led similar teams into the tournament before, and he has yet to reach the Sweet 16 with any of them. Defense wins championships, and to rank outside the top 150 in efficiency on that end of the court is not a recipe for success.

Last year, Iowa was on fire heading into the tournament, and Richmond handed the 5-seeded Hawkeyes a first-round loss. The floor is quite low for Iowa, and neutral-court games against TCU and Duke earlier this season resulted in double-digit losses. The Hawkeyes take care of the ball and have the firepower to reach the second weekend in the tournament, but with what they allow on the defensive end, I simply do not see this team being able to reach the Final Four.

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Auburn 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

After starting the season 16-3, Auburn lost eight of its final 12 regular-season games, getting eaten alive in SEC Conference play. The Tigers don’t exactly enter the tournament with a lot of momentum, and their offensive woes have come to light as the season has progressed.

Wendell Green and K.D. Johnson are a dynamic backcourt duo with a good amount of experience to go along with frontcourt piece Jaylin Williams. Auburn’s perimeter shooting is awful, ranking outside the top 300 in the nation, but the Tigers do rebound well and capitalize on second-chance looks at a top-25 clip. If Bruce Pearl is to lead his team to another deep tournament run, it will be on the back of Auburn’s top-25 defense. The Tigers boast one of the best three-point defenses in the nation, limiting opponents to sub-30 percent from beyond the arc. Their interior defense isn’t bad either, but the Tigers do send teams to the charity stripe at a high clip.

Simply put, there’s not much reason to trust these Tigers. They rank outside the top 350 in the Haslametrics consistency metric — which might be the lowest among any tournament team. We simply don’t know which Auburn team will show up on any given day, and that does not bode well for this team’s ability to string together multiple wins.

Iowa vs. Auburn 2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Iowa is the same offense-heavy team we've seen for the past few years. This offense isn't as heavily reliant on the three-point shot as some Hawkeye teams of the past, but the defense is rated even worse than the ones during the Luka Garza and Keegan Murray eras.

Auburn has relied on a solid defense that ranks 29th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They minimize opponent three-point and two-point field goal percentage by creating tough shooting situations. Led by experienced guard play, they were battle-tested in a tough SEC schedule.

This creates on of the most intriguing matchups in the first round. The experience and defense of Auburn should be enough to slow down Iowa's potent offense. When the Hawkeyes score 70 or less they are only 1-7 on the season and Auburn's defense allows just 67.1 points per game. The deficiencies on offense from Auburn, poor three-point shooting and high turnover percentage, should be negated by their athleticism and Iowa's poor defense. Auburn is the better team and will show it in this 8-9 matchup.

Iowa vs. Auburn 2023 NCAA Tournament Picks

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