Iowa vs. LSU: 2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions
I barely know anything about men’s college basketball. I know even less about women’s college basketball.
But I do know that 10 years ago Elena Delle Donne first made me interested in the women’s side of the NCAA tournament bracket with her Dirk Nowitzki-esque skill set, and this year Caitlin Clark has rekindled my burning desire to watch college basketball with her Luka Doncic-like ability to stuff the stat sheet as a scorer, passer and rebounder.
By the way, I’m a Mavericks fan, so that might influence my player comps.
Even though I don’t follow college basketball, I’ve been a profitable March Madness player prop bettor for the past few years thanks to a “model†(set of spreadsheets) I’ve built.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 301-235, +50.7 units (through Final Four)
Before this year, I’ve never bet March Madness games against the spread (ATS) because I don’t like to bet sports I don’t know, but this year I teamed up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game, and I’m 10-5 ATS (+4.5 units) betting on games.
So, somehow, I’m pretty good at betting on college basketball.
But I’ve never bet on women’s college basketball. Until Friday night.
Call me a moron, but I looked at Iowa as an underdog of +11 points against South Carolina and thought, “The player of the year probably shouldn’t be a double-digit dog.â€
So now I’m a highly successful bettor of the women’s game, which means that I feel compelled to create player projections for the championship between Iowa and LSU.
2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions
So here they are, along with my player prop bets.
Iowa Player Projections
| Player | PTs | REBs | ASTs | PTs + REBs | PTs + ASTs | PRAs | 3Ps | FTs |
| Caitlin Clark | 32.7 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 40.5 | 40.8 | 48.6 | 4.0 | 7.2 |
| Monika Czinano | 14.9 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 21.1 | 16.0 | 22.1 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
| McKenna Warnock | 10.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 16.4 | 12.1 | 18.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Kate Martin | 8.5 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 13.8 | 12.2 | 17.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Hannah Stuelke | 5.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Gabbie Marshall | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| Molly Davis | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Sydney Affolter | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Taylor McCabe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Addison O’Grady | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| AJ Ediger | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Sharon Goodman | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shateah Wetering | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jada Gyamfi | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
LSU Player Projections
| Player | PTs | REBs | ASTs | PTs + REBs | PTs + ASTs | PRAs | 3Ps | FTs |
| Angel Reese | 23.9 | 17.4 | 2.2 | 41.3 | 26.1 | 43.4 | 0.0 | 6.7 |
| Alexis Morris | 16.8 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 20.2 | 21.0 | 24.5 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| Flau’jae Johnson | 12.1 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 19.1 | 14.0 | 21.0 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| LaDazhia Williams | 11.7 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 19.7 | 12.9 | 20.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| Jasmine Carson | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Sa’Myah Smith | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Kateri Poole | 5.4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Last-Tear Poa | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Amani Bartlett | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Emily Ward | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Alisa Williams | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ryann Payne | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Izzy Besselman | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Timia Ware | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Iowa Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Monika Czinano Under 16.5 Points | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | MGM |
| Caitlin Clark Under 9.5 Assists | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | DK |
| Caitlin Clark Under 5.5 3Ps | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | DK |
| Caitlin Clark Over 6.5 Rebounds | -104 | 1.04 | 1 | FD |
| McKenna Warnock Over 5.5 Rebounds | 102 | 1 | 1.02 | FD |
| Caitlin Clark Over 46.5 PRAs | -118 | 1.18 | 1 | FD |
LSU Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Angel Reese Over 21.5 Points | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | DK |
| Angel Reese Over 14.5 Rebounds | -120 | 1.2 | 1 | CZR |
| LaDazhia Williams Over 9.5 Points | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | FD |
| LaDazhia Williams Over 5.5 Rebounds | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | FD |
| Alexis Morris Over 1.5 3Ps | -118 | 1.18 | 1 | FD |
| Alexis Morris Over 15.5 Points | -120 | 1.2 | 1 | MGM |
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