Iowa vs. LSU Odds & Picks (2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament)
The names on the fronts of the jerseys are the same as they were almost a year ago. LSU. IOWA. Some of the names on the backs have changed, but not the names on the backs of the two women who led that National Championship game to be the most-watched women’s basketball game ever. REESE. CLARK. These two will square off one last time in their respective college unis before whatever awaits at the next level. One year ago today, I urged you to back Caitlin Clark and Co. against South Carolina’s Goliath. Let’s see where the value lies in this heavyweight Championship rematch.
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2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Best Bet
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
#3 LSU Tigers vs. #1 Iowa Hawkeyes
The last time these two teams met a National Championship was on the line and LSU scored 102 points. However, 63 of those points are no longer Tigers. LSU’s top three scorers from that night (LaDazhia Williams – 20 points, Jasmine Carson – 22, and Alexis Morris – 21) are gone, while Angel Reese will look to build on her 15-point/10-rebound double-double in that Natty. Reese’s 13.2 rebounding average is 2nd in the national, but she will have her work cut out for her down low once again. Gone may be the likes of Monika Czinano (6’3), but in her place as the anchor forward of Iowa’s four-guard offense, Hannah Stuelke (6’2) who has been a force on the glass this season. The sophomore from Cedar Rapids is the team’s second-leading scorer (14.0) behind only Clark, and her 6.8 rebound average is nearly two more than Czinano’s average (4.9) last season.
The Tigers may have lost 63 points from the last matchup, but thanks to Kim Mulkey’s excellent offseason (end of props to Mulkey), LSU has five players averaging double figures in scoring. In addition to returners Reese (18.7 points) and Flau’jae Johnson (14.7), the Tigers also boast new faces Aneesah Morrow (16.5) and Hailey Van Lith (11.7), transfers from DePaul and Louisville, respectively, as well as freshman Mikaylah Williams (14.4). Those five players combine to average 76 points, but the Tigers are as shallow as the Mississippi is long. Outside of those top five, the next highest scoring average belongs to Aussie junior guard Last-Tear Poa and her 4.9 points. The Tigers’ lack of depth makes their margin for error much slimmer than last season, and that will likely be the difference in the outcome this time around.
Caitlin Clark is hungrier than ever after coming up just short last season. Combine that with this being her collegiate farewell tour now that she has forgone her final year of eligibility and officially declared for the WNBA Draft. Clark has been on a mission since losing to the Tigers last April and her mindset and approach will be much different this time around. Clark went back into the lab this offseason and made her bag even deeper. The biggest lesson she took was, in her words, “not falling in love with my 3-point shot†and “being able to get into the paint†to be more effective and open things up for her teammates. One of those teammates is X-Factor Gabbie Marshall, the senior from Cincinnati who signed on for one more ride. Gabbie is a glue gal. She may only average 6.2 points, 1.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, but she also averages 1.4 steals for her career and has 12 steals in her last eight games, including four in this year’s tournament. She also chipped in 14 points in Iowa’s blowout Sweet 16 victory on Saturday and has a knack for hitting timely shots. She may be 5’9″ but her and Clark’s senior leadership cannot be underestimated.
The last time these two teams met, the Tigers feasted, but the Hawkeyes got just enough of a taste to know they were hungry. In a game this close, I’ll take the hungrier dog every time. The legs feed the wolf, and tonight, Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes will be the ones cutting down nets.
Pick: Hawkeyes (-130)
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.