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Iowa vs. South Carolina: National Championship Odds & Picks (2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament)

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In a showdown that embodies the pinnacle of women’s NCAA basketball, the stage is set for an epic clash between the #1 Iowa Hawkeyes and the #1 overall-seeded South Carolina Gamecocks.

I urged you to back Caitlin Clark and Co. against South Carolina’s Goliath last season, and then, on Monday, I told you to back them to tame the Tigers in the Elite Eight. Friday night against UConn was more of the same! Let’s see where the value lies in this heavyweight National Championship bout.

Iowa vs. South Carolina: 2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament National Championship Best Bet

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

#1 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. #1 South Carolina Gamecocks

If Caitlin Clark and Iowa can cut down the nets in Cleveland today, then they will have taken, arguably, the hardest road any person or team has ever taken to a National Championship. First, they slayed the dragon that was Angel Reese, Kim Mulkey, and the defending National Champion LSU Tigers.

It then only made sense that Geno Auriemma and the storied, 11-time champion UConn Huskies, the team she grew up dreaming of playing for, would stand in the way of her second straight appearance and final chance at a National Championship. The Huskies were most recently 2022 National Runners-Up, and Friday night’s second-half comeback and epic finish proved that the past really is all prologue. All in all, UConn was just another brick in the wall that lines the ivory staircase Caitlin Clark has been ascending.

Everything in these Hawkeyes’ lives, all the way up to Coach Bluder, has led them to the rarest of opportunities when it comes to championships, especially college ones: Another shot at the title after one slipped away. Who else would stand in the way besides the ultimate test in Dawn Staley and her 37-0 South Carolina Gamecocks, who are looking for their 109th victory against just three losses in the last three years? This a game of second chances after the Gamecocks fell short of their quest for a perfect season last year, but get another shot at perfection tonight.

Does Caitlin Clark “prove it” with a second victory over South Carolina in two tournaments, or will Dawn Staley cap off her first undefeated season and take home her second ring in three years and third Natty in eight seasons?

South Carolina

Dawn Staley will once again look to her senior center, Kamilla Cardoso. The 6’7 Brazilian showed up and showed out in the Final Four game against NC State, putting up a 22-point/11-rebound double-double, her 15th of the season. The 22 points were one below her season-high and marked the second time in three games Cardoso hit exactly that number. Rebounding and post-play will be a key factor in today’s game, and Cardoso will have a height advantage, as she is at least four inches taller than everyone on the Iowa roster. Speaking of height, there were 15 women in this year’s Final Four over the height of 6’3; Cardoso and her teammates accounted for five of them. However, of those five, only Cardoso, Ashlyn Watkins (6’3), and Sania Feagin (6’3) see regular minutes.

South Carolina is a team of extremes. On the other side of the height equation, South Carolina features dual 5’9 guards: Te-Hina Paopao and Raven Johnson. Te-Hina hails from Oceanside, Cali., and arrived in SC by way of Oregon via the transfer portal. She averaged 10.9 points this season to go with 3.7 assists and 2.7 rebounds. She has seen her scoring dip slightly but has maintained a neatly identical 9.8/3.6/2.6 line this tournament. Raven, an Atlanta native, is averaging 8.6 points, 4.6 assists and 4.4 rebounds this tournament. (She averaged 8.2/4.9/5.2 in the regular season) and has scored in double figures in three of her last five games. Clark hit nine three-pointers against UConn, but Johnson and Paopao combined to 5-for-10 from deep against NC State and have shot lights out beyond the arc this tournament. Te-Hina has gone 11-for-27 (40.7%), and Raven has drained 7-of-13 (53.8). Both guards give three inches to Caitlin Clark, so they will both have the tall (no pun intended) task of shutting down the NCAA all-time leading scorer and the woman who dropped 41 on the Gamecocks in last year’s Final Four.

The answer could lie in 6′ junior Bree Hall and 6’1 freshman Tessa Johnson. They are South Carolina’s tallest guards, and Johnson sees her minutes off the bench in the 20s. It will be interesting to see, after last season’s loss, what approach South Carolina takes to guarding Caitlin Clark. They did not have success letting her run wild last time, and her supporting cast is a more cohesive unit this year. That being said, 108 wins in the last 111 games proves Staley knows how to coach her team in just about every situation. South Carolina has gotten the breaks that any undefeated team needs, including two times snatching victory from the jaws of defeat at the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers, but being undefeated is no accident.

Staley is the same tactician as a coach that she was as the player who was the all-time NCAA assists leader when she graduated back in 1992. The seven-time SEC Coach of the Year, four-time Naismith National Coach of the Year, and two-time National Champion, Staley brings the same vision and basketball IQ as a coach that she has shown since her high school days at Dobbins Tech in Philly. South Carolina plays hard-nosed basketball, and that starts at the top.

The Gamecocks are the 11th team to enter the National Championship game with an undefeated record. Of the previous 10 teams, nine of them cut down the nets and were crowned champions. None of those 10 teams faced Caitlin Clark.

Every single matchup in this title game is primo.

Iowa

When most teams graduate a four-time All-Big Ten First Teamer like Monika Czinano (6'3), there is usually a glaring hole in their lineup. Iowa doesn’t have that problem because in Czanino’s place has been the anchor forward of Iowa's four-guard offense, sophomore Hannah Stuelke (6'2), who has been a force on the glass this season. Hannah grew up before our eyes on the biggest stage on Friday night, battling Aaliyah Edwards to the tune of 23 points. The sophomore from Cedar Rapids is the team's second-leading scorer (14.1) behind only Clark, and her 6.7 rebound average is nearly two more than Czanino averaged (4.9) last season. It is going to take another monster game down low, but Hannah’s career-high is 47 points, and she happens to be the only person, man or woman, to have ever reached that mark at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Steulke is more than capable of going supernova herself. She will have to grow up even more, taking on 6’7 Kamilla Cardoso, but Hannah plays smart, and I’m sure Addison O’Grady (6’3) will see time defending Cardoso. If either gets into foul trouble, Coach Bluder may have to throw Sharon Goodman (6’3) and AJ Ediger (6’2) at her, too.

Another of those teammates is the X-Factor I have targeted all season, Gabbie Marshall, the fifth-year senior from Cincinnati who signed on for one more go-round with the Hawkeyes. Gabbie is a glue gal. She may only average 6.2 points, 1.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, but she also averages 1.4 steals for her career and has 15 steals in her last ten games, including seven in this year’s tournament. She only had three points against LSU, but she had two steals and a block while playing lockdown defense. She followed that with five points, five rebounds, and a steal against UConn, but she held Paige Bueckers to 17 points, which, when you consider Paige had a good three inches on Gabbie, is incredible. She also chipped in 14 points in Iowa’s blowout Sweet 16 victory and has a knack for hitting timely shots. She may be 5’9″ but her and Clark’s senior leadership cannot be underestimated. Case in point: remember the offensive foul call against Aaliyah Edwards in the final seconds? Of course, you do, and it was Marshall who drew the call because that’s what glue gals do. Being tasked with guarding someone her own height should feel like a relative breeze, but only dimensions-wise.

Factor in Kate Martin, who you may remember from her head being knocked around repeatedly by LSU and UConn with almost nothing called. She even took a shot to the nose on Friday and exited the game before returning to somehow be even more aggressive driving and hit some of her patented spin fadeaways at clutch moments down the stretch. Kate Martin is made of steel; she averaged 13.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists and has seen those scoring and rebounding averages jump up in the Tournament to 13.6 and 9.4, respectively. She will play a big secondary scoring part if the Hawkeyes are going to cut down the nets. The recipe for beating Iowa may lie in South Carolina actually keeping their hands away from Kate’s head because no one else has seemed to be able to this tournament and no one else has been able to beat Iowa either.

What can be said about Caitlin Clark that hasn’t already been said this season? She has broken every record and literally the only thing that she has left to achieve is cutting down those National Championship game nets as a champ. Clark is the first person to lead the nation in scoring the same year they take their team to the National Championship game. Additionally, in the last 25 years, there have only been two ties that a player has averaged 30+ points in the tournament and made the title game. Both times were Caitlin Clark. By getting back to the National Championship game, Iowa becomes the ninth team to play for a Natty the season after losing one. The previous teams are 2-6, but they didn’t have Caitlin Clark.

Head Coach Lisa Bluder is a halftime adjustment savant and adjustments are the name of the game when it gets to this point. Bluder has had success at every stop and has been building to this moment since taking over in 2000. The three-time Big Ten Coach of the Year and 2019 Naismith National Coach of the Year, Bluder is 39th in all-time career winning percentage (.693), and a win today would be the 890th of her career. She also happens to be the winningest coach in Big Ten history.

The Pick

Iowa is hungrier than ever after coming up just short last season. This has also been Caitlin Clark’s collegiate farewell tour, and she has 40 more minutes. That’s all, that’s it. Clark has been on a mission since losing in the Championship game last April and her mindset and approach have been much different this time around. Clark went back into the lab this offseason and made her bag even deeper.

The Gamecocks have not missed a step since coming up short in their quest for an undefeated season and amazingly find themselves once again undefeated and on the doorstep of another ring. In South Carolina’s last 111 games, they are 108-3. The only one of those three losses that was not to an SEC opponent was to Iowa.

It has been 1,101 days (April 2, 2021) since a non-conference opponent other than Iowa has beaten South Carolina. The number of days will grow today either way, but Dawn Staley’s win total will not.

A Caitlin Clark-led team getting +225? I told you to hitch your wagon to her star a year ago when the odds were +500, and nothing’s changed but the date on the calendar. The spread at +6.5 is the safe play, but nobody ever made the grade at anything by playing it safe. There is simply too much value in this Iowa team getting +225 on the moneyline. I don’t care who they are playing.

Pick: Hawkeyes Moneyline (+225)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:

Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.

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