Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez: UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks (Vegas 77)
What an incredible UFC 290 card and overall slate for us! We correctly picked two underdogs at longer odds on the card and one of them by method of victory. Our only loss on the card was Robert Whittaker, as Dricus Du Plessis shocked the world with a complete masterclass performance.
We have a Fight Night card that, on paper, looks to be underwhelming, but those are usually the type of cards that outperform the odds. Let’s dive into: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez.
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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Bassil Hafez
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record:
- ML: 18-11-1 (+7.15 units)
- Props: 5-10-1 (-0.60 units)
- Parlays 1-10 (-3.09 units)
- Overall +3.46 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.
Jack Della Maddalena (-550) vs. Bassil Hafez (+400)
Jack Della Maddalena
- Dist Acc Off: 47.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.26
- Dist Def: 72%
- KD%: 6.02% (5 KDs out of 83 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.9%
- Control % Def: 5.9%
Bassil Hafez does not have enough fights to build an advanced statistic profile. Jack Della Maddalena, on the other hand, has been an incredible prospect since the moment he stepped into the UFC. His insane distance defense rate, paired with a premier KD%, is something you do not see every day. This is pretty straightforward; I see Maddalena ending this early.
Bet: Jack Della Maddalena First Round KO/TKO (-120)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!