Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland: UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions
What an incredible card last week! We ended up splitting on a couple of our picks, but we can’t ignore a masterclass performance from Sean Strickland. It was arguably the best execution of a game plan I have seen in quite some time. Sometimes simple techniques, when mastered, cannot be beat. The fans were deafening throughout the entire fight card, and it was an incredible environment to watch.
This week, we have a rare title bout on a Fight Night card. From top to bottom, this is a stacked card. There are up-and-coming prospects along with veterans of the UFC who are still in their prime. Let’s dive in! Here are my top picks for Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland.
UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record
- ML: 39-27-1 (+13.85 units)
- Props: 12-24-1 (+4.55 units)
- Parlays 3-20 (-.37 units)
- Overall +18.03 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Jack Della Maddalena (-148) vs. Kevin Holland (+124)
Jack Della Maddalena
- Dist Acc Off: 51.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 17.81
- Dist Def: 74%
- KD%: 3.3% (5 KDs out of 151 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 8.4%
- Control % Def: 28.5%
Kevin Holland
- Dist Acc Off: 44.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.94
- Dist Def: 46%
- KD%: .4% (1 KD out of 230 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 5.2%
- Control % Def: 6.2%
This is my favorite fight of the entire card. Jack Della Maddalena is an incredible striker whose boxing is arguably the best in the entire division and probably top five in the entire UFC.
Kevin Holland, on the other hand, is an extremely versatile and well-rounded fighter who has few weaknesses. From an advanced statistical profile, Holland looks to be in for a long night on the feet. His distance defense is abysmal. Now, much of that can be attributed to the Wonderboy fight, but the sample size is now large enough to say that Holland is hittable. Still, Della Maddalena will have to overcome an extreme eight-inch reach disadvantage to get into striking range.
With that said, there are two main aspects that I can’t get past. Holland has an impeccable resumé of fighters on his list. The level of competition he has fought is rivaled by few. The second thing is Della Maddalena’s fight IQ. In his last fight, he dropped for submission no less than five times. He was destroying his opponent Bassil Hafez on the feet but, for whatever reason, went for a submission repeatedly. Haffez, in my eyes, won that fight, and one judge saw it that way too. You cannot make these mistakes at this level vs. someone like Holland.
Bet: Kevin Holland (+124) + Holland by Submission (+600)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!