Jaguars vs. Chiefs: 2023 NFL AFC Divisional Round Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday unfazed about the moniker they are receiving as the big underdog in the AFC heading into this postseason.
The fourth-seeded Jaguars (10-8) defeated the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round after coming back from a 27-point deficit. They’ll need to adjust their strategy this week, however, in anticipation of the top-seeded Chiefs (14-3) who surely wouldn’t allow for such a comeback.
The clubs will face off in a high-stakes rematch of their Nov. 13 encounter at the same venue when the AFC Divisional Playoffs begin on Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium. Let’s take a closer look at how this one might go.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
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NFL AFC Divisional Round Best Bets: Jaguars vs. Chiefs (Saturday)
Details
- Opening Line: Chiefs -10 | O/U 51.5
- Current Line: Chiefs -8.5 | O/U 52.5
- Last meeting: November 13, 2022 – Jaguars 17, Chiefs 27
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Overview
Following that 27-17 win vs. the Jags, the Chiefs went 7-1 to finish the regular season with the best record in the league. Since that day, Jacksonville has gone 7-1 as well, including the rally that gave them the victory over the Chargers.
The Jaguars’ earlier game in Kansas City, one of eight of their previous ten contests in which they failed to score a touchdown in the first quarter, was doomed by a sluggish start. The Chiefs scored 20 points in the first half, controlling the rest of Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson’s game plan. The Jags failed to convert on 28.6% of their third-down opportunities, stifling any attempt at a comeback.
The toe issue that quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been dealing with for the past six weeks hampered him on Tuesday in practice, but things appear to be improving as the week progresses. Against the Chargers in the first half, Lawrence had four interceptions, something he won’t be able to get away with in KC for the Jags to have a chance.
On Saturday, the Jaguars hope to continue building on their gains after Lawrence finished with four touchdown passes, three of which came in the second half.
Earning a bye in most seasons, Reid’s Chiefs are 4-2 in divisional playoff games during his tenure. Led by All-Pro quarterback Patrick Mahomes II, this team is more experienced than most at taking a week off after the regular season to prepare for the postseason.
Few anticipated this January showdown in light of the Jaguars’ 2-6 start. Jacksonville had a total record of 10-39 over the previous three seasons and hadn’t made the playoffs since 2017. Just one year after selecting Lawrence as No. 1 in the 2021 NFL Draft, many would consider the rebuild well ahead of schedule.
Bottom Line
With two weeks to get ready for an opponent as a head coach, Reid is 27-4 when regular-season bye weeks are considered. After a bye week, Reid is 3-0 in divisional playoff games with Mahomes.
While Pederson might have this team ready, the Chiefs still roll.
Pick: Chiefs -8.5
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