Jaguars vs. Chiefs: 2023 NFL Divisional Weekend Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
We’ve reached the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, a weekend that many agree is the best football weekend on the calendar.
Sure, the games might be fewer in quantity than a loaded regular season slate. But typically, what Divisional Weekend lacks in quantity, it makes up for in quality.
That being said, we’ve only got two games to break down on Divisional Round Saturday, so let’s dig right into my favorite same-game parlays for Saturday’s contests.
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2023 NFL Divisional Weekend: Saturday’s Best Bets
Here are two of our favorite same-game parlays for Saturday’s games on NFL Divisional Weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) | Total 52.5
The Jaguars have been a tremendous story this season, but they’re playing above their weight class in this one. Kansas City defeated Jacksonville in November by 10 in a game that didn’t really feel that close. The Chiefs out-gained the Jaguars 486-315 and averaged 7.8 yards per play to Jacksonville’s 5.2. The reason the game was as close as it was — and it was still a 10-point Chiefs victory — was three Kansas City turnovers. One occurred deep in Jags territory, while another was a fumble on a kickoff return.
I expect a similarly dominant and much sharper performance from the Chiefs coming off the first-round bye. And this frankly isn’t a good matchup for the Jaguars’ defense, which ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. That means Patrick Mahomes could be in store for a massive day.
But instead of taking a riskier prop with Mahomes eclipsing 315 passing yards, I’d rather take a shot on his primary target, Travis Kelce, having a monster game. Jacksonville has allowed opposing tight ends to average 62.7 receiving yards per game this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. In the first meeting between these teams, Kelce caught eight passes for 81 yards and a score. And we just saw Gerald Everett put up 109 yards and a touchdown a week ago against this same defense. Kelce should eat here.
Lastly, I feel good about Travis Etienne exceeding this low receiving yardage total. The Chiefs have given up an average of 47.4 receiving yards per game to opposing tailbacks this season, the fourth-most in the league. And Etienne caught three passes for 28 yards in the first meeting.
Jacksonville surrendered the second-most receiving yards to opposing tailbacks this season, so I don’t mind a Jerick McKinnon over prop either, as he had 56 receiving yards in the first matchup.
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