Jaguars vs. Jets: NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 16)
The Jaguars will head to New Jersey on Thursday to take on the Jets. This game has major playoff implications, with both teams sitting just outside the AFC playoffs as-is. We’ll also get a chance to see the top two picks from the 2021 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, face off head-to-head.
With the Jets favored by 1.5 points at home and the game total sitting at just 37.5, this should be a close, low-scoring game. Here’s a three-leg parlay offered on DraftKings that I’ll be playing on Thursday night.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Jaguars vs. Jets: NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 16)
Leg 1: Jaguars ML (-105)
After a disappointing start to the season, the Jaguars have been playing exceptional football over their last six games. They’re 4-2 in that stretch, with their two road losses coming in Kansas City and in Detroit. Lawrence has been one of the best QBs in the NFL over that run. Over his last six games, Lawrence’s stat line is massive – 280 yards per game with 14 TDs and only one INT. Jacksonville is desperate for a win here to control their own destiny in the AFC South playoff race, and the way they’ve been playing, I think they’ll get it.
On the other hand, the Jets aren’t playing their best football as of late. They’ve lost three straight games and four of their last five. Their defense has been solid, but their offense will be hindered coming into this game as they’ll be forced to start Wilson with Mike White hurt. Wilson has a winning record this year – the Jets are 5-3 when he starts – but the Jets have averaged just 15.6 points per game over his last five starts.
Jacksonville’s defense has struggled this year, but I think their offense will be able to outpace the Jets’ struggling offensive unit. I expect the Jags to pick up a win on the road in this game.
Leg 2: Trevor Lawrence O219.5 Passing Yards (-140)
As mentioned, Lawrence has been sensational recently. He’s emerged as one of the best QBs in the NFL over his last six games and is finally living up to the hype of a top draft pick after a disappointing rookie season. Lawrence has thrown for fewer than 235 yards just once in that six-game stretch – a blowout loss to the Lions in which he missed part of the game with an injury. He’s averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game over his last six – a clear sign that the Jaguars trust him and realize that the offense is better off when he throws more than he doesn’t.
The Jets’ pass defense has been very good this year. They’ve allowed just 212 yards per game to opposing QBs, the fourth-lowest total in the league. Even so, if Lawrence poses 35+ pass attempts and plays as well as he has over the last month and a half, I think he’ll likely break the 220-yard threshold. Depending on your risk tolerance, I like the value on Lawrence passing yards at higher thresholds as well. Bringing him up to O269.5 passing yards boosts the parlay odds to +750.
Leg 3: Alternate Total O40.5 Points (+120)
In both of the other plays, I’ve spelled out why I think the Jaguars’ offense is in for a good night on Thursday. They’ve played very well recently, especially over their last two games, as they’ve hung a total of 76 points on the Titans and Cowboys – two quality defenses. The stat props and totals on this game seem to underrate Jacksonville’s offense.
While the Jets haven’t quite had the same explosive offense in recent weeks, I think they’ll be able to post a solid offensive game against the Jaguars’ defense. Jacksonville’s defense has struggled in recent weeks. While the Jags have gone 4-2 in their last six games, the defense has allowed a whopping 28.3 points per game over that stretch.
If Jacksonville’s offense plays well, they’ll force the Jets to push Wilson and open up the playbook. I think this game goes over the low total, and I’m willing to get a bit aggressive here and take an alternate over.
Parlay Odds: +475
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