Jaguars vs. Jets: NFL Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Props (Week 16)
The Jaguars and Jets will square off on Thursday night in a key matchup for the AFC playoff race.
Jacksonville comes in at 6-8, having won four of their last six games and controlling their own destiny in the AFC South race. The Jets are 7-7, and sit as the first team out of the AFC Wild Card race if the season ended today. This game is also a matchup between the top two picks of the 2021 NFL Draft – Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson.
The total on this game sits at just 37.5 despite playmakers on offense for both teams. Below are some TD props with great value for Thursday’s game.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Jaguars vs. Jets: NFL Thursday Night Football Touchdown Scorer Props (Week 16)
Zay Jones Anytime TD (+320)
This offseason, Christian Kirk was the Jaguars’ big-money free agent WR signing. In recent weeks, however, Zay Jones has been the acquisition making the most noise in the Jacksonville receiving core. Jones has 35 receptions for 415 yards and four TDs over the Jaguars’ last five games, including a three-TD performance against the Cowboys last weekend.
Over the last four weeks, Jones has led the Jaguars with seven red zone targets. He’s emerging as one of Trevor Lawrence’s favorite receivers as the Jags approach the opponents’ end zone. On Thursday, this preference is likely to be amplified – star rookie CB Sauce Gardner will likely be lined up on Christian Kirk – meaning Jones may be the most open receiver on plenty of dropbacks.
Given his volume in recent weeks and his rapport with Trevor Lawrence, this is excellent value at +320.
Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+235)
Garrett Wilson has struggled at times with Zach Wilson at QB, but he’s having an exceptional year nonetheless. He’s currently the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he’s been the Jets’ most productive WR by far this season. Garrett Wilson is currently on pace for 81 catches, 1,173 yards and five TDs on the season.
Against Jacksonville, Wilson has a great matchup for a big game. The Jaguars have allowed 18 TDs to opposing WRs this season, the second-highest mark in the NFL. If a Jets WR is going to score Thursday night, it’s likely to be Garrett Wilson – his 17 red zone targets are the most on the Jets. Second-place? Corey Davis and Elijah Moore with just seven targets each.
Given the Jags’ defensive struggles against WRs and Garrett Wilson’s momentum in recent weeks, I think this is a great value play.
Trevor Lawrence Anytime TD (+600)
This one’s a bit of a long shot, but I think it’s worth a sprinkle, given the odds. Trevor Lawrence has broken out as a passer in recent weeks. After a disappointing rookie season, he’s living up to his expectations as the top overall pick in year two. An underrated part of Lawrence’s game has been his rushing ability. He isn’t going to post 100-yard games like Justin Fields or Jalen Hurts, but Lawrence is an efficient runner who’s posted 22 carries for 140 yards over his last six games. Lawrence also has four rushing TDs this year. He’s not afraid to call his own number if a play breaks down around the goal line.
On the other hand, the Jets have allowed five rushing TDs to opposing QBs. This is the third-highest mark in the league. Given their solid pass defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if a play breaks down and Lawrence gets a carry or two in the red zone. With these odds being so high, it’s a chance I’m willing to take.
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