Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green: UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks (2023)
If there was a title fight on this card it would arguably be a top-5 event of the year. I mean the name recognition is incredible. You have numerous storylines that are intriguing to not only casual fans but diehard MMA fans. Not to mention, there is incredible value available in several fights. These matchups will kick off a huge month for the UFC. Let’s dive in! Here are my top picks for UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan. Below we dive into Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green.
UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Picks: Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green
Jalin Turner (-205) vs Bobby Green (+170)
Jalin Turner
- Dist Acc Off: 44.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.34
- Dist Def: 37%
- KD%: 1.8% (4 KDs out of 218 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 10.2%
- Control % Def: 24.4%
Bobby Green
- Dist Acc Off: 53.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.85
- Dist Def: 70%
- KD%: .4% (2 KDs out of 409 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 8.5%
- Control % Def: .7%
Jalin Turner is coming off a back-and-forth war with Dan Hooker. Turner hit Dan with a head kick that would have folded 90% of the UFC roster. Turner has the most unique measurements that the lightweight division has ever seen. He is 6ft 3 with a 77-inch reach. The main concern is he doesn’t really use that reach advantage to his benefit and has arguably the worst distance defense in the UFC. He is getting hit with 63% of all distance strikes thrown. That is beyond alarming. Bobby Green is coming off an upset of Grant Dawson that we saw coming. If you are going to stand and trade with Bobby Green you better have a game plan that you can execute, otherwise, you are going to get a MasterClass on striking. Bobby Green is the only fighter who fights at such a high pace with offensive accuracy and elite distance defense. If Turner cannot get this fight to the ground, it is going to be a long and or short night for him. Bobby Green is my favorite play of the entire card.
Bet: Bobby Green (+170)
Record:
- ML: 52-45-3 (+9.31 units)
- Props: 13-33-1 (-3.30 units)
- Parlays: 4-26 (+1.79 units)
- Overall: +7.80 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's dive into these compelling matchups!
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!