Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (Fresno State vs. Washington State)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the weekend.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl | Inglewood, CA
Saturday, December 17 | 2:30 PM
Fresno State (-3) vs. Washington State | Total: 54.5
ATL: Wazzu -3.7 | ATT: 43
Washington State
WR De’Zhuan Stribling (Transfer portal)
WR Donovan Ollie (Transfer portal)
WR Renard Bell (Injury)
OT Jack Wilson (Left team)
LB Francisco Mauigoa (Transfer portal)
LB Travion Brown (Transfer portal)
LB Daiyan Henley (Opt-out)
CB Armani Marsh (Injury)
The oft-injured WR Bell missed five games this season with injuries and has already been ruled out for the bowl game. WRs Stribling, Ollie, and Bell are Nos. 1, 2, and 4 on the team in receiving yards. Their losses are significant for Wazzu’s pass-happy offense. Wazzu nickel CB Marsh is expected to play after missing the Apple Cup due to an unspecified injury. That’s notable because Washington picked on his backup and poured on 485 passing yards. OT Wilson, a backup tackle and also a basketball player, left the team to join WSU’s basketball program. LB Henley, a first-team All-Pac-12 linebacker who ESPN ranks as a top-60 overall NFL draft prospect, is headed to the Senior Bowl. LBs Mauigoa and Brown were the team’s top-two middle linebackers. Wazzu will start two backup LB who’ve never started a game – Ben Wilson and Kyle Thornton – in place of Henley and the Mauigoa/Brown rotation. Depth at the LB position is so bad that HC Dickert said backup SS Jordan Lee shifted to LB for bowl practices to serve as Wilson’s backup in this game.
Fresno State
DB Cole Sanders
Sanders played the 12th-most defensive snaps for Fresno State this fall and finished with 32 tackles. Sanders had the fourth-worst PFF grade of the 12, so perhaps he won’t be overly missed.
Coaching news
Wazzu DC Brian Ward took the same job at Arizona State.
Handicap
Fresno State has won nine-straight. The Bulldogs are a different team with QB Jake Haener, who returned from injury to start the last seven of those wins. Expect a strong showing in Haener’s last collegiate game.
You can move the ball on Wazzu’s pass defense. While the Cougars rank No. 55 in success rate in that area, they’ve sagged to No. 78 in marginal efficiency and No. 118 in explosiveness. Fresno State is No. 1 in the country in completion percentage – despite QB2 Logan Fife playing one-quarter of the season – and will be taking aim at a Wazzu defense that ranks No. 90 in the same category.
Wazzu’s defense ranked No. 18 SP+ despite ceding its fair share of yards per play – mostly because that unit was very good situationally. It was strong in the red zone (No. 34 points per scoring opportunity), it created havoc (No. 22), and it took the ball away (tied for No. 20 in turnovers forced).
It’s fair to wonder if those three areas sustain at current levels with outstanding DC Brian Ward off to Arizona State, and with the linebacking corps absolutely decimated. Two linebackers who’ve never started before will draw their first-career starts for Wazzu in this game (see above).
On the other side of the ball, Wazzu is even more pass-happy than Fresno State. Unfortunately for them, the Bulldogs’ pass defense is the unit’s strength. FSU ranks No. 13 in pass defense success rate and PFF grades its coverage No. 16.
This is an especially big problem for Wazzu after its receiving corps was decimated following the regular season. Wazzu QB Cam Ward is overrated. PFF graded him No. 121 out of 159 qualifying quarterbacks – and that was with his full complement of receivers. I think Fresno shuts down Wazzu’s offense, here.
My system loves the under. I’ll be playing that in addition to Fresno State.
The picks: Fresno -3 | UNDER 54.5
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