Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals Odds & Game Picks (2021)
Two of the most exciting teams in the AFC will do battle Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs travel to the Queen City for a battle with the Cincinnati Bengals.
This game is pivotal for playoff positioning. The Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with a win and a Titans loss. Meanwhile, the Bengals could come a step closer to clinching its first AFC North title since 2015.
Should we back Patrick Mahomes and the red hot Chiefs? Or will the home dog Bengals be worth a wager? Let’s break down this critical AFC showdown.
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Details
- Opening line: Kansas City -5
- Current line: Kansas City -5.5
- Total: 51
Chiefs are figuring things out at the right time
Kansas City is rolling and enter this game winners of eight straight. But the question remains, are the Chiefs back?
It’s somewhat hard to say. Kansas City hasn’t faced a daunting schedule during this recent run. Their best wins came against a short-handed Dallas team, a Jordan Love-led Packers team, and the Chargers, who practically gave that game away with terrible execution in the red zone. Other than that, Kansas City’s beaten the Giants, the Raiders twice, the Broncos, and the Steelers.
Kansas City’s winning streak has actually been fueled by a defense that’s suddenly turned things around. The Chiefs now rank 16th in defensive DVOA, which is a far cry from where they were during the first couple of months of the season. Getting players like Chris Jones back healthy certainly helps, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deserves credit for righting the ship so quickly. A league average defense can win in the postseason.
So how about Kansas City’s offense? The unit has shown signs of its old self, most notably in the Raiders and Chargers games. But this unit still has a tendency to scuffle at times. Opponents have continued to play two safety high looks to prevent the big plays the Chiefs thrive on.
And while Kansas City should get tight end Travis Kelce back from the COVID-19 list, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is back on the injury report with a collarbone injury that could hold him out the rest of the regular season. That means Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore will once again assume the majority of the backfield work.
Is Cincinnati legitimate?
Give credit to Cincinnati. They took care of business last week against a Baltimore team that was starting third-stringer Josh Johnson at quarterback and had practically nobody in its secondary. But I still have questions about the legitimacy of this team.
Cincinnati is no doubt a young and exciting team. I’m just not sure they’re a true contender in the AFC yet. Despite a 9-6 record, the Bengals rank just 17th in overall DVOA. Despite having Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon on offense, the Bengals rank just 19th in offensive DVOA.
While Burrow is coming off a 525-yard performance last week, Cincinnati’s best path to victory might be on the ground. The Bengals will go up against a Chiefs defense that ranks 21st in rush defense DVOA and is 27th in adjusted line yards against. Cincinnati’s offensive line isn’t a great unit, but it’s been good in run blocking, ranking 14th in adjusted line yards. If the Bengals can establish the run, it could go a long way in setting up play action passes to their stud receivers.
Defensively, Cincinnati is a middle of the road unit that doesn’t match up well with Kansas City’s offense. Cincinnati’s strength is against the run, where it ranks seventh in DVOA. However, the Bengals rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA, a glaring flaw that could be exploited by Mahomes and company.
Bottom Line
This is a big opportunity for the Bengals to prove their legitimacy to the rest of the league. But this team just feels like it’s a year away from reaching Kansas City’s level. I expect Mahomes to thrive against this Bengals pass defense with his full suite of weapons. And I just don’t trust Zac Taylor to out-coach Andy Reid.
That being said, laying five points on the road with a Chiefs team that I think is back, but don’t know, is a little too risky. So instead, I’ll set my eyes on the total. As I mentioned, Kansas City should be able to throw all over Cincinnati. And I don’t suspect Kansas City will get enough pressure on the other side of the ball to fluster Burrow. I’ll root for points in what should be a highly entertaining game, and perhaps a playoff preview.
The pick: Over 51
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