Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Odds & Game Pick (2021)

The final week of the NFL regular season begins on Saturday with an AFC West Divisional matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. While the Chiefs have already clinched their sixth consecutive division title, they need a win to remain alive in the hopes for the number one seed and a first-round playoff bye. Meanwhile, the Broncos will simply be trying to conclude their season on a positive note. Denver was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week. Considering the varying motives that these two rivals have, it is no surprise to see the NFL betting odds heavily favoring the visitors for this Week 18 matchup.

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Details

Opening Lines: Chiefs -3; O/U 43.5
Current Lines: Chiefs -11.5; O/U 45
Location: Empower Stadium at Mile High -Denver, CO
Start Time: 4:30 p.m. EDT
TV: ESPN
Last Meeting: December 5, 2021 - The Chiefs defeated the Broncos 22-9 in Kansas City.

Overview

Winners of eight straight going into last week's road game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chiefs appeared to be a lock for the number one seed in the AFC Playoffs. Following an upset loss that was as much the fault of horrendous officiating as it was the Chiefs' unwillingness to double-team Ja'Marr Chase, Kansas City now needs a win on Saturday and a loss by the Tennessee Titans to secure a first-round bye. As a result, most NFL betting analysts expect Andy Reid to have his team fully prepared for this regular-season finale.

Aside from coming up short on the scoreboard and failing to make necessary defensive adjustments, the Chiefs have to be pleased with how they are playing with the postseason looming. After struggling offensively for the better part of the regular season, Kansas City has now scored over 30 points in four straight games. In fact, one would have to go back to the first meeting against Denver to find the last time the Chiefs were held below the 30-point threshold. Despite not one receiver topping 53 yards last week, Patrick Mahomes still threw for 259 yards and two scores. Darrel Williams also scored a pair of rushing TDs filling in for the sidelined Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

The host Broncos have effectively seen their hopes of a Wild Card berth into the postseason wither away. Denver enters Saturday's finale on a three-game losing skid. The offense has been anemic during this stretch, failing to top more than 13 points in any of the three games. On the bright side, at least the world now knows that Drew Lock is not an NFL starting quarterback. He will be back under center this week as Teddy Bridgewater has already been ruled out.

Given the poor state of the offense, the Broncos will need an A+ effort from their defense if they hope to score an NFL betting upset on Saturday. While Denver ranks third in scoring defense, allowing 18.4 points per game, they are only 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. While motivation could come into question in that case, the Broncos always tend to have a sound defensive game plan when they face Kansas City. Rookie corner Patrick Surtain II intercepted Mahomes in the first matchup between the teams this season. However, both he and Ronald Darby have already been ruled out for Saturday’s game with injuries.

Trends

• Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
• The total has gone over in four of the Chiefs' last five games.
• Broncos are just 1-4, both SU and ATS in their last five games.
• Eight of the Broncos' last 10 games have gone under the total.
• Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven head-to-head matchups against the Broncos in Denver.

Bottom Line

The Chiefs have absolutely dominated this AFC West rivalry of late. In addition to winning each of the last 12 head-to-head matchups outright, Kansas City has also covered the spread in 10 of those games. It's hard to come up with a great reason for why the Chiefs won't win comfortably again on Saturday. The NFL betting odds have moved sharply in K.C.'s favor. What was originally a three-point spread on the lookahead lines has ballooned to Chiefs -11.5.

There is no reason to doubt that the Chiefs win this game. However, the hefty point spread is concerning, especially in a game with such a low total. Drew Lock may be terrible, but we've seen him throw it around the yard and achieve backdoor covers before. As a result, shying away from betting the spread seems like the safest maneuver.

That leaves us with handicapping an over/under of 45, which represents the peak for this total in terms of the market consensus. Given how the Broncos always seem to have a beat on Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, the under is the preferred pick here. The 31 total points scored in the first matchup between the teams this year marked the fourth time in the last five meetings that the total stayed under 40. With Vic Fangio potentially trying to save his job and/or ensure he lands on his feet as a defensive coordinator after Denver fires him, there is reason to believe the Broncos will show up on that side of the ball.

Pick: Under 45

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.