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Kansas State vs. Florida Atlantic: 2023 NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

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The NCAA tournament has done nothing but deliver with some insane results already. We saw a 16 and a 15 seed win while half of the number one and two seeds fell before the Sweet 16. It was anyone's tournament entering Selection Sunday and that remains the case. Here I will preview Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State game with the winner going to the Final Four in Houston.

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How We Got Here

Kansas State has played some of the most exciting games of the tournament. Montana State was no easy battle followed by two teams that Kansas State was betting underdogs against, despite being the better seed. In back-and-forth affairs, the Wildcats continued to step up and execute their game plan.

Florida Atlantic has also played three exciting games with their matchup against Memphis highlighting the first round of action. After handling FDU, FAU stepped up to the challenge against a physical Tennessee team to find themselves a win away from the Final Four.

What I'm Looking For

  • Does Markquis Nowell go nuclear again?: Nowell right now is essentially the player of the tournament so far. After setting the NCAA tourney record in assists, if he continues to play at the high level he has reached so far, FAU will be in trouble. Now FAU's defense ranks 29th in the nation via KenPom so should be up for the battle. They also rank second at limiting the ratio of assists to field goals made, so Nowell and company will have to scheme up some better plays than what they had against Michigan State. The Owls have the tape and can see their game plan so I don't expect it to be so easy for Kansas State to run their offense this time.
  • The perimeter battle.: The Owls record over 37 percent of their points from beyond the arc, the 25th highest in the nation, while Kansas State defends the perimeter at the 21st-best clip. Against Michigan State, however, the Sparty did shoot 52 percent from deep so Kansas State cannot allow as many open looks or else Florida Atlantic will run away with it. FAU is also coming off a game against one of the best defenses in the nation, so I expect them to be a bit more prepared for what Jerome Tang has to throw at them.  
  • Depth: Kansas State likes to run with it, but so does FAU, so this will be a high-paced game. The problem is the Wildcats ranking 325th in bench minutes with the Owls ranking 14th highest. FAU has a lot of athletic players and their subs are more so reinforcements. In crunch time, coming off an OT game, will Kansas State still have the steam to win a close one? 

With the quick turnaround, I expect these teams to stick to their strengths and for regression to hit both sides. This should fully be a wonderful game but I can't see Nowell having another lifetime game again. FAU is disciplined so they won't send Kansas State to the line and their shooting might be too difficult to handle. I expect a close matchup but for FAU to pull away late against a fatigued Kansas State squad, and make the Final Four. I'll be on FAU ML (+116 BetRivers) tonight.

Score Prediction: FAU 77, Kansas State 71

Pick: FAU ML (+115)

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