Las Vegas Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (Oregon State vs. Florida)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Las Vegas Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the weekend.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
Las Vegas Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
Las Vegas Bowl | Las Vegas, NV
Saturday, December 17 | 6:30 PM
Oregon State (-10) vs. Florida | Total: 52.5
ATL: OSU -14.3 | ATT: 47.5
Oregon State
QB Chance Nolan (Transfer portal)
CB Ron Hardge (Transfer portal)
TE Luke Musgrave (Opt-out)
CB Rejzohn Wright (Injury)
RB Damien Martinez, a CFN Freshman All-American, suffered an injury in the finale against Oregon but will play, according to reports. CB Wright’s season is over following thumb surgery. He was one-half of Oregon State’s strong cornerback duo. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the Beavers are well-stocked with depth at that position.
Florida
QB Anthony Richardson (Opt-out)
QB Jalen Kitna (Dismissed from team)
RB Lorenzo Lingard (Transfer portal)
WR Trent Whittemore (Transfer portal)
WR Justin Shorter (Opt-out)
TE Nick Elksnis (Transfer portal)
OG O’Cyrus Torrence (Opt-out)
OL Josh Braun (Transfer portal)
LB Diwun Black (Transfer portal)
LB Ventrell Miller (Opt-out)
DB Kamar Wilcoxson (Transfer portal)
DB Corey Collier (Transfer portal)
QB1 Richardson is off to the NFL Draft. QB2 Jalen Kitna was kicked off the team following his arrest on child pornography charges. That leaves QB3 Jack Miller III, an Ohio State transfer, to make his first career start. OG Torrence was one of the nation’s best interior offensive linemen. WR Shorter was the team’s second-best receiver. LB Miller was the team’s best linebacker. Florida’s defense has struggled over the past few years when Miller has missed time due to injury. DT Gervon Dexter declared for the NFL Draft, but announced that he will play in this game.
Handicap
Florida stumbles in losers of two straight, one of those losses coming against Vanderbilt. Then the Gators kept on losing in the immediate aftermath of the regular season, getting decimated as badly as any team in the country with opt-outs and declarations.
This would already have been a bad matchup for Florida, and it’s all the more so now. The Gators’ shoddy defense ranked just No. 78 SP+ at full strength. That defense is particularly bad against the run. LB Miller’s absence will hurt against the run-heavy Beavers.
Meanwhile, Florida all season was able to overcome inefficiency on offense through explosive plays. Mostly because of the play-making ability of QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson is gone and his backup is incarcerated, leaving the starting gig to QB3 Jack Miller III. This is an enormous downgrade. Not only that, but OG Torrence was one of the nation’s best offensive linemen and WR Shorter was a valued starter.
The Beavers should be able to run the ball at will, here. And Oregon State’s top-25 SP+ defense will have no problem shutting down Florida’s depleted offense.
This game reminds me of the bowl a few years ago when Florida suffered numerous opt-outs and got blasted by Oklahoma. Facing similar uphill odds here, HC Billy Napier, 1-3 ATS in postseason games, isn’t likely to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
The pick: Oregon State -10
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