Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Among the Week 17 games with major playoff implications is an early-afternoon contest between the Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts. Both of these teams are firmly entrenched in the AFC Wild Card race with two weeks remaining in the regular season. A win on Sunday could potentially clinch a playoff berth for the Colts. Meanwhile, a victory would certainly boost the Raiders' cause. Despite the two teams being separated by just one game in the standings, the NFL betting odds have declared the home side a large favorite ahead of this showdown.

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Details

Opening Lines: Colts -7.5; O/U 48
Current Lines: Colts -8; O/U 45
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: December 13, 2020 - The Colts defeated the Raiders 44-27 in Las Vegas.

Overview

Against all odds, the Raiders have navigated a tumultuous season off the field to the tune of winning eight games. Can a roster that has been depleted by injuries and other unthinkable circumstances actually reach the postseason? Las Vegas certainly gave themselves a chance with a home win over the division rival Denver Broncos last week. While the Raiders' 17 points scored marked their second-highest total in any game since the start of November, it proved to be enough as a shorthanded defense once again rose to the task. Despite ranking in the bottom half of the league in both adjusted offense and defense, the Raiders still have a shot to make the playoffs.

With that being said, Derek Carr and the offense will need to play much better on Sunday if Las Vegas hopes to pull off an NFL betting upset. Unfortunately, just when it looked like star tight end Darren Waller was set to return from an injury, he wound up in virus protocols. That leaves the Raiders set to face one of the NFL's toughest defenses with very few reliable weapons. Backup tight end Foster Moreau figures to be leaned on again after an impressive showing last week. Josh Jacobs will likely need to show his versatility as a pass-catcher given how tough it is to run the football against Indianapolis. On the bright side, the Raiders are expected to have several defensive pieces, including top cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., clear virus protocols in time for Week 17.

The Colts certainly know all about virus protocols after playing without several stalwarts along the offensive line and on defense last week. It proved to be irrelevant as Indianapolis was still able to upset the Arizona Cardinals on the road. The victory ran the Colts' current winning streak to three games and bumped their overall record to 9-6. Keep in mind that this is a team that started the year out 1-4. Frank Reich is drawing a lot of attention in the NFL betting futures market to win the Coach of the Year award. Guiding the shorthanded Colts to a win last week might have been his most impressive coaching performance yet. 

Earlier this week, it appeared as though virus protocols may impact the Colts yet again this week. After playing one of his best games of the year last week, quarterback Carson Wentz wound up on the almighty list. Fortunately, he has since been activated and is on track to start Sunday's key NFL betting matchup. While Wentz and the Indianapolis passing attack certainly figure to have an advantage over the depleted Las Vegas secondary, no one has been able to stop star running back Jonathan Taylor all season. It's hard to envision the Raiders being able to match up against the bruising Colts offensive front. There’s a chance that both tackle Eric Fisher and guard Mark Glowinski are able to return from injuries as well. Star linebacker Darius Leonard will also be back from virus protocols to anchor a top-10 adjusted defense.

Trends

• Raiders are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• The total has gone under in four of the Raiders' last six games.
• Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• Colts are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games against opponents before they play the Los Angeles Chargers.
• Each of the last four Raiders vs. Colts head-to-head matchups has gone over the total.

Bottom Line

Both of these teams may be in the thick of postseason contention, but the point spread moving north of a full touchdown serves as a clear indication of how the NFL betting market views the two sides. Despite the move, a surprisingly low percentage of total spread bets are on the Colts (58%). 

A depleted Raiders roster is in line to only be further shorthanded on Sunday as a result of various players landing in virus protocols. The defense has been the only thing saving Las Vegas recently as the offense has been listless since the start of November. Now, they have to contend with an MVP candidate in Jonathan Taylor and a Colts' receiving corps that is as healthy as it has been all season. Unless Derek Carr is able to turn things around against one of the top defenses in the league, Las Vegas will have a hard time keeping this game competitive. It would not be a surprise to see this line grow even larger before kickoff.

Pick: Colts -8

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.