LendingTree Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (Southern Miss vs. Rice)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for LendingTree Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the weekend.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
LendingTree Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
LendingTree Bowl | Mobile, AL
Saturday, December 17 | 4:45 PM
Southern Miss (-6.5) vs. Rice | Total: 46.5
ATL: USM -14.8 | ATT: 46
Rice
QB Wiley Green (Injury)
QB T.J. McMahon (Injury)
WR Luke McCaffrey (Injury)
Rice’s QB room was ravaged with injuries late in the year. QB1 McMahon hasn’t played since Nov 12th. He is questionable. QB2 Wiley Green missed the first nine games, and then reinjured his right throwing arm in Game 10 – he’s likely out. QB3 AJ Padgett started the regular season finale against North Texas, and QB4 Shawqi Itraish saw field action the week prior (before getting yanked for Padgett). The status of WR McCaffrey – an off-the-radar breakout performer in 2022 – is up in the air after he missed the last two games with injuries.
Southern Miss
None reported
Handicap
Rice’s quarterback injuries are a real problem. The Owls – who had improved from 3-9 to 2-4 to 4-8 over the previous three seasons – began the campaign as a feel-good story, opening 5-4. But ever since QB TJ McMahon got hurt, Rice’s fortunates changed.
The Owls lost three-straight to close the campaign. The Owls were blasted by an average of 34.5 PPG in the first two, and in the finale Rice wasn’t able to take advantage of a lethargic North Texas team clearly looking ahead to the CUSA title game the next week.
The injury to breakout WR Luke McCaffrey didn’t help matters. The former quarterback posted a 51-656-6 receiving line in his first season after transitioning positions, despite missing the last two games with injuries. His status is unknown, but he isn’t likely to push it if not 100-percent, and McCaffrey is also a rumored potential transfer candidate.
In lieu of all that, Rice’s passing game has been neutered. Rice’s rushing attack is decent but not special, ranking No. 76 in success rate and No. 24 in explosiveness.
The good news for Rice is that Southern Miss’ offense (No. 107 SP+) is nearly as bad as Rice’s defense (No. 111). The very bad news for Rice is that its poor-as-was offense, now compromised, is about to go up against an unforgiving Southern Miss defense (No. 40).
The Golden Eagles’ defense is extremely active, ranking No. 13 in havoc rate. Not only is Rice out-manned on the skill side of things, but the Owls are going to have a very tough time keeping Southern Miss out of the backfield. Rice is also very likely to lose the turnover battle – the Owls ranked No. 128 in turnover margin during the season, and this is an especially bad matchup for that particular bugaboo.
As it sits now, my system is higher on Southern Miss than any other side over the entire bowl slate. Southern Miss has covered five-of-six and keeps the good times rolling by blasting Rice in the season finale.
The pick: Rice -6.5
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