Liberty vs. Bowling Green: College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks (Saturday)
College football is back! The 2023 college football season kicked off with an exciting but small Week 0 slate. Now the rest of the teams get to join in on the fun with the start of Week 1. We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s Week 1 game: Liberty vs. Bowling Green.
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Top College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks: Liberty vs. Bowling Green
I feel confident that Liberty is qualitatively double-digits better than Bowling Green. Locking this bet in is a show of confidence in new HC Jamey Chadwell that his offensive system, in particular, will be up and running in Week 1.
Chadwell went 31-7 in his last three seasons at Coastal Carolina. In his first season - not counting the 2017 one-off where Chadwell was forced into interim duties - back in 2019, Chadwell repeated the 5-7 record from the year before. But his team slightly outperformed expectations at the window, going 7-5 ATS.
The difference between this situation and that one is Liberty had more talent on hand when Chadwell took over. The Flames' offense has everything returning that Chadwell's attack needs to cook, including exciting dual-threat QB Kaidon Salter, a former four-star recruit.
Chadwell's freeze-option RPO system has worked at every coaching stop he's ever been at. Its use of misdirection, multiple ball-carrier options, and varied blocking schemes tends to confuse and frustrate defenses. Chadwell dials up one-on-one downfield shots off play-action when they inevitably overcompensate to address the rush.
I'm lower on Bowling Green than the market. Last year, BGU made bowl season with a fraudulent resume, going 6-6 courtesy of a 5-1 record in one-possession games. The one loss? The Falcons lost by two in 7OT to an FCS team.
BGU lost three of four leading receivers over the offseason, while the defense lost by far its best player, DT Karl Brooks. Last year's defense was No. 13 in the FBS in sacks but No. 113 with 32.5 PPG allowed. Brooks had 10 sacks himself and contributed to multiple others through the extra attention he received. BGU's pass rush may fall off a cliff this season without him - a concerning idea when you consider the straights of the rest of a unit that returns only five starters.
If Liberty's offense can run Chadwell's offense in the opener, they're going to move the ball at will. And not for nothing: Liberty's returning players will want to make a statement after last year's team started 8-1 but ended on a four-game losing streak, while former HC Hugh Freeze focused on Auburn negotiations more than game planning and then fled down before the bowl game.
The pick: Liberty -9.5
Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners
Game Total
Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.
ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42
tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.
For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.
ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)
tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.
Player Props
Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.
ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250
tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.
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