Lions vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Lions vs. Buccaneers.
NFL Betting Primer: Lions vs. Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB 3) vs. Detroit Lions
I think this line is disrespectful to the Detroit Lions. Considering its 3-points awarded to the home team – give or take – this is suggesting that the Lions-Buccaneers would be a pick ’em on a neutral field. IN. WHAT. WORLD.
I honestly think this is reading too much into Jared Goff‘s home/road splits when it’s more about his effectiveness – or lack of – in bad weather. Sunday’s game in Tampa Bay projects for 77 degrees and sunny weather. The Lions offense is also supposed to get a boost back in the form of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Meanwhile, Mike Evans opened the week with a DNP after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 4. Off a bye week. Not good for the Buccaneers.
And outside a pick-six thrown by Goff in the OT loss to Seattle, I spot zero blemishes from the Lions’ 2023 record on both sides of the ball. Their pass rush is one of the best units in the league, ranking 8th in pressure rate and 5th in total pressures.
The Lions have also been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 21-7 (75%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense.
The Lions are a legitimate 4-1 team. The Buccaneers are a fraudulent 3-1 team. They beat two teams that were winless and another team that trotted out a QB just a week removed from an AC shoulder injury.
The Buccaneers have benefited greatly from metrics that are not sustainable.
No.1 in turnover margin. Baker Mayfield is the highest-rated QB under pressure. He’s also been the best QB on third down. These are great descriptive statistics. He has been playing well, no doubt. But his level is production is not predictive.
Fade the Bucs. Lions -3. Lock Button.
For totals, it’s an under for me. The Buccaneers are 3-1 toward the under and have totaled fewer than 44 points in all four of their games played. Given their strengths on defense, I think they can keep the Lions’ offense limited to keep the total under 44 points.
As for the Buccaneers’ player props. Hammer the under on Rachaad White. The Lions have the league’s No. 1 run defense and White has not been an efficient rusher this season. No RB the Lions have faced has surpassed 45 yards on the ground against them.
My Picks:
- Lions -3 (-118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Under 44 (-110 BetMGM)
My Props:
- Rachaad White under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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