Lions vs. Chiefs: NFL Thursday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 1)

The 2023 NFL season kicks off tonight with a marquee matchup when the Detroit Lions visit the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs.

This primetime game has garnered increased attention throughout the week after Travis Kelce suffered a hyperextended knee in practice and is officially listed as questionable.

Though uncertainty remains regarding his status, as the market believes Kelce is worth roughly 1-1.5 points to the spread, we can attack this game from other areas below.

Below, we’ll look at the betting angle surrounding this game. And be sure to follow me on Twitter as I post or add plays on days we don’t offer a full write-up.

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Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview & Picks

Details

• Opening Line: O/U: 54 |DET +7
• Current Line: O/U: 52.5| DET +4.5

Overview

To no one’s surprise, the Chiefs enter the season as Super Bowl favorites yet again.

On top of the Kelce injury, star defensive tackle Chris Jones is also out due to a contract dispute – further weakening an already suspect defense.

While many jumped on the Lions as the Kelce news broke, much of the line value has diminished on the dogs’ side.

However, Jones’ absence makes the Chiefs run defense susceptible to a strong run game – which the Lions happen to possess.

Per Jacob Gibbs of Sportsline, the success of opponents’ run game when Jones is off the field is staggering:

With Detroit’s penchant to run up the middle last season with much success and the Chiefs being far below league average, compounded with his absence – we should expect David Montgomery to find success in this matchup.

Trends

• The Chiefs were 8-11-1 against the spread last season
• The Lions were 12-5 against the spread last season.
• The Lions were 10-7 to the over in 2022.

Bottom Line

Montgomery expects to fill the role of the departed Jamaal Williams, who rushed for 17 touchdowns last season in this Detroit offense.

Montgomery is certainly more talented than Williams and will receive the goal-line touches, while Jahmyr Gibbs handles receiving duties and further work between the 20s.

Kelce’s missing this game would certainly be a blow, but Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s duo, especially the latter off a bye, will still create an explosive, offensive game plan.

A high-scoring affair with a 52.5 total is expected, and we can expect the Lions to get plenty of looks in the red zone.

Don’t be surprised to see Montgomery in the endzone due to a superb matchup and game environment.

The Pick: David Montgomery anytime TD (+110) PointsBet

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