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Lions vs. Packers: NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Week 18)

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On Sunday night, the Packers and Lions will square off in the final regular season game of the NFL season. Depending on how the action early in the day goes, there’s a chance this game will be win-and-in. At a minimum, the Packers will be in a position to get into the playoffs with a victory. Even if the Lions are eliminated early in the day, Dan Campbell should keep his foot on the pedal and attempt to play spoiler for their division rival.

The Packers are five-point favorites at home, and the total sits at 49 points. I’ll be playing this three-leg parlay on DraftKings for the game.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Lions/Packers SNF SGP

Leg 1: Allen Lazard 55+ Receiving Yards (+110)

Christian Watson has been the Packers’ breakout WR in recent weeks, but Allen Lazard has been a steady contributor to Green Bay’s passing game. Lazard has at least five catches and 59 yards in three of his last four games. He has 25 targets over that stretch and should continue to see looks even with Watson healthy on Sunday.

Lazard’s matchup looks especially favorable against the Detroit passing defense. The Lions have allowed 194 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. This ranks second-worst in the NFL. They’ve been especially bad lately — they locked down the Bears’ WR core last week but allowed an average of 228 yards per game to opposing WRs in the five prior weeks. 

Against a bad pass defense, in a game with a high total and having seen plenty of success lately, I expect Lazard to go over 55 yards on Sunday.

Leg 2: D’Andre Swift 40+ Rushing Yards (+140)

In my estimation, D’Andre Swift’s rushing line is far too low coming into Sunday night. The Packers’ rush defense has been a soft spot for them all year. They allow 4.95 yards per carry to opposing RBs, the sixth-worst mark in the league. Their full-game rushing totals have been better in recent weeks since they’ve been winning, but their yards-per-carry mark hasn’t really improved much.

Swift is one of the most talented backs in the NFL. The only thing that holds him back statistically is low usage. He has 78 carries in his last 12 games — an average of 6.5 carries per game. In a must-win game, however, I expect him to see more usage than he has in past weeks. This was the case last week, as he carried the ball 11 times against the Bears, his third-highest carry total of the season.

Swift has been incredibly efficient with his touches, averaging 5.6 yards per carry this year and 6.2 yards per carry over his last three games. Against a bad Packers rush defense and in a spot where he should get a larger-than-average carry total, this is a great leg for our parlay.

Leg 3: o44.5 Total Points (-185)

Given the way these two teams have scored in recent weeks, I expect this to be a high-scoring game. The Packers have rebounded from a bumpy start to the season, and Aaron Rodgers is playing like his old self. They’ve been incredibly efficient on offense, and haven’t scored fewer than 24 points in any of their past five games. They should have their way against the Lions’ bad pass defense.

Detroit has been incredibly efficient on offense in recent weeks as well. The Jared Goff renaissance is alive and well, and they’ve scored more than 20 points in each of their last eight games. This includes a scorching hot stretch over their last five games where they’ve averaged 31.6 points per game.

This should be a shootout — both defenses have had their struggles, and both offenses have been on fire. I’ll take the alternate total here to give us some wiggle room, but this should hit comfortably.

Parlay Odds: +525

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